Independent Ukraine?

[mishery]

Could the various pro-independence Ukrainian groups in 1917 and after have united to bring about an independent Ukraine? It seems to me after a cursory re-reading of a book on the Russian revolution last night that disunity at least in part led to the incorporation of the Ukraine into the USSR.

Perhaps the Ukraine at least initially might be strongly aligned with Soviet Russia but nevertheless independent. Could it have survived? What might the consequences have been for Soviet/Russian nationality policy? What might it have been like in terms of territory, would the more Russian regions have joined Russia? And its economy?

And what happens come 1939 then 1941?

 

[Molobo]

Could the various pro-independence Ukrainian groups in 1917 and after have united to bring about an independent Ukraine?

If Pilsudski instead of being just military commander would be political negotiator during Riga, its likely Ukraine would exist in some form, although likely some parts would remain in Bolshevik hands.

Perhaps the Ukraine at least initially might be strongly aligned with Soviet Russia but nevertheless independent.

That is rather unlikely, Ukrainian nationalists fighting for independence sided with Poland against Bolsheviks.Perhaps a puppet state of Soviet Ukraine would be formed alongside independent Ukraine/somewhat similar to what Soviets did in real life, pretending Ukraine was sovereign-thus giving them more votes in UN).

Could it have survived? What might the consequences have been for Soviet/Russian nationality policy?

A war would be likely in future, when Soviet repression and famine would hit territories controlled by SU, and independent Ukrainians would be want to help their brothers.

And its economy?

Depends on what regions would be independent.
Ukraine is often called the breadbasket of Soviet Union.It would be definitely be weakened and less threatening to the rest of world

And what happens come 1939 then 1941?

Without Ukrainian soldiers and resources Soviet Union would less likely sign the Molotov Pact, knowing it would mean confrontation with Ukraine, it also likely that Germany and Ukraine would become close allies if it wouldn't be allied with Poland.
A armstice advantageous to Germany would be likely, but what German policy would be to Ukraine is a question.

 

[Ivan Druzhkov]

Personally, I'm pessimistic about the continued survival of a post-1917 independent Ukraine. The country would be experiencing the same problems that most of the other new states in Central/Eastern Europe, straining an already rickety structure. Add on to that the interests of Russia (communist or otherwise), Germany (which is starting to get ideas about lebensraum) and Poland, and it doesn't look good.

 

[Cloudy Vortex]

I would suggest a Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian federation as being a most logical configuration for viability but for nationalism.

 

[Midgard]

I would suggest a Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian federation as being a most logical configuration for viability but for nationalism.

Probably the Western Ukrainians would go for that, but in the East, Center, and South, there are more logical connections to Russia, so this might simply partition Ukraine into two or even three states... come WWII, it would be winner-take-all.

 

[Thande]

Political union is probably unworkable, but how about close military ties between those three and the Czechoslovaks (and perhaps the other Balts, the Hungarians, and the Romanians too?), welded together from the pressure of Soviet territorial ambitions on one side and German ones on the other?

 

[Straha]

To get this is simple. Simply reduce Stalin's political capital to the point where se see other sucessors to lenin in the wings not accepting Stalin's victory and the USSR implodes 90 years early(20's instead of 1989-1991)

 

[Midgard]

A relatively easy way to get it is to have WWI fought to a stalemate, with the Russian Revolution still erupting on schedule, but no American involvement. Thus, the German support for independent Ukraine is still valid by 1919 or so, Germany not being defeated (and Austria-Hungary too preoccupied with internal problems to make any territorial grabs). Say, by 1919 or so all sides are too exhausted to fight, and have had enough trouble with minor (but noticeable) communist uprisings internally to agree to an armistice, which ends the war with no clear winner.

One thing, however, is clear - no one likes the idea of Red Russia. To this effect, all kinds of support from both the Central Powers and the remaining Entente states go to independent Ukraine, going so far as to station troops there since, say, 1918 or so (presuming the peace of Brest-Litovsk still happens similar to OTL). Thus, there is going to be an independent Ukraine in German sphere of influence, and allied to Germany.

One thing is that WWII is likely to be very different, since Hitler and the Nazis are not going to rise to power; possibly there might even be an intervention to restore the Tsar or one of his brothers and/or cousins to the throne into Russia - that is, providing there is even going to be a WWII. At any rate, there would be at least a somewhat independent Ukrainian state, at least until the next big conflict (should there be one) - at which point it depends on who is fighting whom, and the outcome of it.