Japan invades a Russian Manchuria instead of a Chinese one

zarathustra

Recently, reading some threads around East Asia in the 19th century, I've came across several points I find interesting, and now I would like to organize these multiple PODs to elaborate a more specific discussion
Overall, the main idea is that the Japanese Invade Manchuria as usual during ww2, for the same reasons it did OTL (resources and stuff), but ITL the region know as "Manchuria" is a Soviet puppet/SSR. Then what?
- There must be a WW2, a Soviet Union, Imperial Japan and a screwed/war-thorned pos-imperial china
---
Okay, lets develop this
First, the implications of Manchuria being part of the Soviet Union. When? I have some ideas
The first one is Russia annexing the thing after the first Sino-Japanese war, boxer, Taiping or any of the late qing conflicts. the problem with this POD is: there will be a sizeable amount of Han Chinese there, specially in the South... I don't know how(even more) screwed china must be to let this happen(and this "Manchuria" would be as Manchu as china proper anyway)
No Qing"-style would be the second option. Therefore, you avoid the Sinization of the region - opening space for a Russification instead. The problem is: you will just butterfly Chinese history 1600 onwards . I'm still trying to figure out a reasonable approach. Maybe despite the Qing, you are able to retain *some* of the "Manchu culture" somehow. The Soviets then later create a "Ethnic Manchu republic" (a Russian settlement like Kazakhstan) following TTL Xinhai - buffing the remains of the "Manchu" identity.
---
Well, the main focus here is not how Russia got Manchuria. but rather on how Imperial Japan would handle the scarcity of resources, given that neighboring Manchuria is under Soviet control. Would they still choose to invade it regardless? Especially considering the significant Soviet presence in the region compared to OTL? Would Japan skip Manchuria altogether and instead move directly into the Yellow Sea, establishing a larger Mengjiang puppet (OTL Mengjiang, Hebei, Shandong, etc)? - doubt the soviets would allow. Japan head south instead? This this would provoke a faster and stronger reaction from the Allies...
I have no idea honestly. Would Japan then just be neutral and sit and wait for War spoils if there is no viable target? You would need to drastically change Japan militaristic and expansionist policies in the 20th century then

tl/dr
Japan needs resources, but Manchuria is already occupied by the Soviets🤔

1709590294473.jpeg
 

zarathustra

Also, sorry I messed up
It should be After 1900 I guess, since we are talking about ww2 and soviets...
But I believe you must have pre1900 pods anyway, so idk. This is a problem with unclear pods during the transition period
 

Emperor-of-New-Zealand

zarathustra said:
But I believe you must have pre1900 pods anyway
Click to expand...
Any pre-1900 POD has the massive potential to butterfly the world wars, Japanese militarism, and so on, so it becomes a moot point. You'd basically have to start with a POD where Russia annexes all of Manchuria, then work your way forward through an alternate history to get a scenario where Japan still invades in some other war. But development of all the involved nations will be drastically altered by the POD, so even if you have provided ideas on how Russia might grab Manchuria, you're still basically doing this:

1. Russia annexes Manchuria.
2. .....
3. Japan invades in WWII.
 
EasternRomanEmpire

EasternRomanEmpire

zarathustra said:
Recently, reading some threads around East Asia in the 19th century, I've came across several points I find interesting, and now I would like to organize these multiple PODs to elaborate a more specific discussion
Overall, the main idea is that the Japanese Invade Manchuria as usual during ww2, for the same reasons it did OTL (resources and stuff), but ITL the region know as "Manchuria" is a Soviet puppet/SSR. Then what?
- There must be a WW2, a Soviet Union, Imperial Japan and a screwed/war-thorned pos-imperial china
---
Okay, lets develop this
First, the implications of Manchuria being part of the Soviet Union. When? I have some ideas
The first one is Russia annexing the thing after the first Sino-Japanese war, boxer, Taiping or any of the late qing conflicts. the problem with this POD is: there will be a sizeable amount of Han Chinese there, specially in the South... I don't know how(even more) screwed china must be to let this happen(and this "Manchuria" would be as Manchu as china proper anyway)
No Qing"-style would be the second option. Therefore, you avoid the Sinization of the region - opening space for a Russification instead. The problem is: you will just butterfly Chinese history 1600 onwards . I'm still trying to figure out a reasonable approach. Maybe despite the Qing, you are able to retain *some* of the "Manchu culture" somehow. The Soviets then later create a "Ethnic Manchu republic" (a Russian settlement like Kazakhstan) following TTL Xinhai - buffing the remains of the "Manchu" identity.
---
Well, the main focus here is not how Russia got Manchuria. but rather on how Imperial Japan would handle the scarcity of resources, given that neighboring Manchuria is under Soviet control. Would they still choose to invade it regardless? Especially considering the significant Soviet presence in the region compared to OTL? Would Japan skip Manchuria altogether and instead move directly into the Yellow Sea, establishing a larger Mengjiang puppet (OTL Mengjiang, Hebei, Shandong, etc)? - doubt the soviets would allow. Japan head south instead? This this would provoke a faster and stronger reaction from the Allies...
I have no idea honestly. Would Japan then just be neutral and sit and wait for War spoils if there is no viable target? You would need to drastically change Japan militaristic and expansionist policies in the 20th century then

tl/dr
Japan needs resources, but Manchuria is already occupied by the Soviets🤔

View attachment 892370
Click to expand...
So this is supposing that the Clique that governs Manchuria is in the Soviet sphere of influence, however if somehow the Soviets managed to do this (which is extremely unlikely) they wouldn't support the Kuomintang which has massive implications also who would the Japanese support ITTL as OTL they supported the Fengtian Clique (which controlled Manchuria)?
They probably wouldn't have as much of an incentive to invade Manchuria as it developed thanks to Japanese help & because invading a Soviet puppet is a much bigger deal than attacking China, therefore not starting the conflict at all, but without the Japanese invasion of Manchuria they don't start their invasion of China, therefore they don't invade French Indochina therefore not getting embargoed by the U.S.
 

TrickyApe

Japan picked on China in Manchuria and later in other areas because it was weak and an easy target. Invading Russian territory would initiate a major war, which was to be avoided. That's why Japan didn't pick on British or French colonies during the 1930's.
 

alexmilman

zarathustra said:
Recently, reading some threads around East Asia in the 19th century, I've came across several points I find interesting, and now I would like to organize these multiple PODs to elaborate a more specific discussion
Overall, the main idea is that the Japanese Invade Manchuria as usual during ww2, for the same reasons it did OTL (resources and stuff), but ITL the region know as "Manchuria" is a Soviet puppet/SSR. Then what?
- There must be a WW2, a Soviet Union, Imperial Japan and a screwed/war-thorned pos-imperial china
---
Okay, lets develop this
First, the implications of Manchuria being part of the Soviet Union. When? I have some ideas
The first one is Russia annexing the thing after the first Sino-Japanese war, boxer, Taiping or any of the late qing conflicts. the problem with this POD is: there will be a sizeable amount of Han Chinese there, specially in the South... I don't know how(even more) screwed china must be to let this happen(and this "Manchuria" would be as Manchu as china proper anyway)
No Qing"-style would be the second option. Therefore, you avoid the Sinization of the region - opening space for a Russification instead. The problem is: you will just butterfly Chinese history 1600 onwards . I'm still trying to figure out a reasonable approach. Maybe despite the Qing, you are able to retain *some* of the "Manchu culture" somehow. The Soviets then later create a "Ethnic Manchu republic" (a Russian settlement like Kazakhstan) following TTL Xinhai - buffing the remains of the "Manchu" identity.
---
Well, the main focus here is not how Russia got Manchuria. but rather on how Imperial Japan would handle the scarcity of resources, given that neighboring Manchuria is under Soviet control. Would they still choose to invade it regardless? Especially considering the significant Soviet presence in the region compared to OTL? Would Japan skip Manchuria altogether and instead move directly into the Yellow Sea, establishing a larger Mengjiang puppet (OTL Mengjiang, Hebei, Shandong, etc)? - doubt the soviets would allow. Japan head south instead? This this would provoke a faster and stronger reaction from the Allies...
I have no idea honestly. Would Japan then just be neutral and sit and wait for War spoils if there is no viable target? You would need to drastically change Japan militaristic and expansionist policies in the 20th century then

tl/dr
Japan needs resources, but Manchuria is already occupied by the Soviets🤔

View attachment 892370
Click to expand...


Regardless its status (Soviet republic within the SU or communist vassal state), territory is protected by the SU and changing this requires major military commitment from Japan.

But why would Japan need doing things the hard way if in OTL it was getting everything it needed from the SU (mostly fish and oil) as the concessions? The SU with Manchuria is not going to have greater technical resources and money so the similar arrangements can be done for the iron and coal of South Manchuria and the soybeans still would be carried by the Japanese ships from Vladivostok and Dairen.

In OTL Japan could easily occupy during ww2 Northern Sakhalin where it had oil concessions but it did not make practical sense. Ditto for your TL.
 
kasumigenx

kasumigenx

Joseon/Korea has disputes with China regarding parts of Manchuria, particularly Gando, so Japan inherited that issue with Korea.
 
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