John Zápolya remains king of Hungary?

[Vinization]

John Zápolya was a prominent noble who was elected king of Hungary in the aftermath of the death of Louis II at the Battle of Mohács. However, his hold on to power lasted less than a year, since Ferdinand I, who had also had claim to the crown, led an army that forced him into exile and, eventually, into the arms of the Ottomans, who made him one of their vassals.

So what if the Habsburgs aren't able to press their claim for whatever reason (maybe one of the Italian Wars goes south), and Zápolya manages to consolidate power? Hungary was a broken mess at the time, wrecked by years of mismanagement, revolts and finally the Ottoman invasion, but many of the magnates responsible for that state of affairs were killed at Mohács, so could he have a realistic chance to rebuild it into a force to be reckoned with, as long as he paid tribute to Constantinople for the time being?

How much stronger, or weaker, would the Habsburgs be in this scenario? They still get Bohemia here, but not the silver mines of Upper Hungary. On the bright side, however, they may not have to fight the Ottomans nonstop for more than 150 years, at least on land. Right?

Would Zápolya marry earlier? IOTL he only did it in 1539, just in time to sire a single son, John Sigismund, right before his death.

@Fehérvári

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

John Zápolya was a prominent noble who was elected king of Hungary in the aftermath of the death of Louis II at the Battle of Mohács. However, his hold on to power lasted less than a year, since Ferdinand I, who had also had claim to the crown, led an army that forced him into exile and, eventually, into the arms of the Ottomans, who made him one of their vassals.

So what if the Habsburgs aren't able to press their claim for whatever reason (maybe one of the Italian Wars goes south), and Zápolya manages to consolidate power? Hungary was a broken mess at the time, wrecked by years of mismanagement, revolts and finally the Ottoman invasion, but many of the magnates responsible for that state of affairs were killed at Mohács, so could he have a realistic chance to rebuild it into a force to be reckoned with, as long as he paid tribute to Constantinople for the time being?

How much stronger, or weaker, would the Habsburgs be in this scenario? They still get Bohemia here, but not the silver mines of Upper Hungary. On the bright side, however, they may not have to fight the Ottomans nonstop for more than 150 years, at least on land. Right?

Would Zápolya marry earlier? IOTL he only did it in 1539, just in time to sire a single son, John Sigismund, right before his death.

@Fehérvári

I would say without killing Ferdinand, stabilizing Zapolya rule in non-divided state is almost impossible, Italy is just not worth losing Hungary and Zapolya wasn't going to have stable reign anyway, he was relatively lowborn and thus big magnates (unless they were his staunch allies) had difficulties bowing to him.
That is the same issue which plagued reign of Matthias Corvinus. Tho I would say if Zapolya managed to rule in undivided country he could reasonably rebuild it.

 

[Tibi088]

John Zápolya was a prominent noble who was elected king of Hungary in the aftermath of the death of Louis II at the Battle of Mohács. However, his hold on to power lasted less than a year, since Ferdinand I, who had also had claim to the crown, led an army that forced him into exile and, eventually, into the arms of the Ottomans, who made him one of their vassals.

So what if the Habsburgs aren't able to press their claim for whatever reason (maybe one of the Italian Wars goes south), and Zápolya manages to consolidate power? Hungary was a broken mess at the time, wrecked by years of mismanagement, revolts and finally the Ottoman invasion, but many of the magnates responsible for that state of affairs were killed at Mohács, so could he have a realistic chance to rebuild it into a force to be reckoned with, as long as he paid tribute to Constantinople for the time being?

How much stronger, or weaker, would the Habsburgs be in this scenario? They still get Bohemia here, but not the silver mines of Upper Hungary. On the bright side, however, they may not have to fight the Ottomans nonstop for more than 150 years, at least on land. Right?

Would Zápolya marry earlier? IOTL he only did it in 1539, just in time to sire a single son, John Sigismund, right before his death.

@Fehérvári

The Habsburgs claim came from part of the hungarian nobility elected Ferdinand as king of Hungary at the same time the bigger part elected Zápolya. That would not disappear.

Also without foreign support Hungary will most likely fall to the ottomans. Without OTL's royal Hungary as a buffer Austria will be in a much worse situation - they will become a battle ground and be subjected to constant raiding that was the day tto day reality along the ootoman border even at peace time. OTL Vienna was besieged 2 times and has nearly fallen. In this time line there is a good chance it will.

 

[Fehérvári]

Szapolyai needs to earn a decisive victory against Ferdinand and his supporters on the field, preferrably West from the Danube. Furthermore, it really wouldn't hurt for Szapolyai to strike a deal with Ferdinand, promising the country to him if he would die heirless.

Would Ferdinand be willing to take such deal after a heavy defeat? Well, he atleast got Bohemia out of the whole fiasco, so maybe. If he doesn't, Szapolyai's rule would remain extremely unstable, and royal authority would plummet further.

Let's suppose Ferdinand takes the deal. Szapolyai's rule would be secure, but Hungary would be in a precarious situation. Hungary would need to begin paying tribute to the Sultan and Szapolyai would need to tread a very fine line between not getting on the Ottomans' bad side and not being seen as a Turkish lapdog at home or abroad.

Fortunately, Hungary didn't seem to be the primary focus of the Ottomans around this time. It was the Habsburgs. So as long as Hungary doesn't seem to fall into the Habsburg sphere, the country should be safe for the coming decade or decades. A lot could happen in that time.

As for the Habsburgs, to put it simply, their position in Germany would be stronger, but they would have a harder time in the Mediterranean overall. Expect more Franco-Ottoman cooperation in the area.

 

[Vinization]

I would say without killing Ferdinand, stabilizing Zapolya rule in non-divided state is almost impossible, Italy is just not worth losing Hungary and Zapolya wasn't going to have stable reign anyway, he was relatively lowborn and thus big magnates (unless they were his staunch allies) had difficulties bowing to him.
That is the same issue which plagued reign of Matthias Corvinus. Tho I would say if Zapolya managed to rule in undivided country he could reasonably rebuild it.

The Habsburgs had plenty of financial problems IOTL, even with all their victories. Is it really a stretch for them to not be able to raise an army before Zápolya cements his hold on power, if they suffer a few defeats elsewhere?

The Habsburgs claim came from part of the hungarian nobility elected Ferdinand as king of Hungary at the same time the bigger part elected Zápolya. That would not disappear.

Also without foreign support Hungary will most likely fall to the ottomans. Without OTL's royal Hungary as a buffer Austria will be in a much worse situation - they will become a battle ground and be subjected to constant raiding that was the day tto day reality along the ootoman border even at peace time. OTL Vienna was besieged 2 times and has nearly fallen. In this time line there is a good chance it will.

Couldn't the Ottomans be satisfied with some border fortresses and extorting money out of Hungary every year? They had plenty of other enemies to deal with - Spain, Portugal, Poland, Russia, Persia...

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

The Habsburgs had plenty of financial problems IOTL, even with all their victories. Is it really a stretch for them to not be able to raise an army before Zápolya cements his hold on power, if they suffer a few defeats elsewhere?

IMHO not, Ferdinand will metaphorically eat ground but he'll raise an army and return. By accepting losing to Zapolya, who from his POV was parvenu usurper he'd make himself look like a joke.

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

The Habsburgs had plenty of financial problems IOTL, even with all their victories. Is it really a stretch for them to not be able to raise an army before Zápolya cements his hold on power, if they suffer a few defeats elsewhere?

Couldn't the Ottomans be satisfied with some border fortresses and extorting money out of Hungary every year? They had plenty of other enemies to deal with - Spain, Portugal, Poland, Russia, Persia...

Russia wasn't that big of a threat at this time, the first time those countries came to blows was in 1568, and that was a one-off until it became a regular thing from the late 17th century onwards.

And even then, wasn't the Ottomans basically still hyped up as the successor to the Roman Empire? If so, I think that might be their reasoning for their strategy if only to eventually annex Hungary in its entirety.

 

[Vinization]

IMHO not, Ferdinand will metaphorically eat ground but he'll raise an army and return. By accepting losing to Zapolya, who from his POV was parvenu usurper he'd make himself look like a joke.

I see. Well, could his invasion at least be delayed until after Jovan Nenad is dealt with?

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

I see. Well, could his invasion at least be delayed until after Jovan Nenad is dealt with?

I think yes (though I learned of existence of Jovan Nenad only right now), it could be, but won't change much in the long picture, Zapolya's rule will be unstable.

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

I think yes (though I learned of existence of Jovan Nenad only right now), it could be, but won't change much in the long picture, Zapolya's rule will be unstable.

^ This, though I personally wouldn't even say almost impossible, it was outright impossible, to the point where Zapolya's election was probably more spur of the moment and was only backed by the lower nobility (Zapolya himself was one of those in that group). Even if Ferdinand and his descendants were removed from contention (which in and of itself also a very difficult task) I just don't see the higher nobility would back Zapolya, they would rather pick some random foreign prince or one of their own, or even submit to the Ottomans, than accept Zapolya as their king.

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

^ This, though I personally wouldn't even say almost impossible, it was outright impossible, to the point where Zapolya's election was probably more spur of the moment and was only backed by the lower nobility (Zapolya himself was one of those in that group). Even if Ferdinand and his descendants were removed from contention (which in and of itself also a very difficult task) I just don't see the higher nobility would back Zapolya, they would rather pick some random foreign prince or one of their own, or even submit to the Ottomans, than accept Zapolya as their king.

I don't know what they might do, but there will be many plots against Zapolya as they were against Matthias Corvinus.

 

[Tibi088]

^ This, though I personally wouldn't even say almost impossible, it was outright impossible, to the point where Zapolya's election was probably more spur of the moment and was only backed by the lower nobility (Zapolya himself was one of those in that group). Even if Ferdinand and his descendants were removed from contention (which in and of itself also a very difficult task) I just don't see the higher nobility would back Zapolya, they would rather pick some random foreign prince or one of their own, or even submit to the Ottomans, than accept Zapolya as their king.

A big factor in his election was that because he was late - the reasons for which are debated - he was after Mohács the only hungarian noble left standing with an intact army.