Given the references to American (and presumably other) civilians trapped in occupied zones, is Saddam using them as human shields? He used both Western and (IIRC) Kuwaitis as human shields in our history.
Depending on the size of the occupied territory and whether or not he's gotten hold of significant oil-producing assets, he might have a good number of Westerners.
Also, if Saddam can take things like Ras Tanura, he could hold much of the world's oil production hostage. Even if he receives an OTL-style keister-whipping (which is dubious considering the Coalition's much worse logistical situation and lack of buildup time), that's a pretty big bargaining chip right there.
And I see I've gotten Unknown using TVTropes. Beyond Token Evil Teammate (the Iraqis to the Yemenis and definitely the Jordanians if they jump in), we've also got Asshole Victim (the Saudis and maybe the Kuwaitis) and Last Stand (good ending or bad ending) if the Iraqis attack U.S. troops at Dhahran. Any more?
Hmm...will the Iraqis try to avoid combat with U.S. troops whenever possible? They might simply put a big screen around Dhahran and focus on wiping out the Saudi regulars and what's left of the Kuwaitis, rousing and arming anti-Saudi tribes, etc. Focus on making sure the U.S. has no allies in-country and no way to restore the decadent, reactionary Saudi regime even if Saddam's boys do get whipped.
(Of course, that'd be the politically-astute thing to do and Saddam is a massive thug. He might gamble on destroying the U.S. troops at Dhahran before they can build up and thus begin the Mother of All Ass-Whoopings.)
Saddam has a few effective cards in his hand right now. He's already played Yemen and the strait closure, which is forcing the West to focus its immediate attention on the Red Sea. He still has the oil weapon, the silence from Jordan, potential threats against Israel (and the PLO factor), and finally he has the H-word (psst...
hostages) card. Almost half of Kuwait's 2 million strong population consists of foreign workers, (although about 400,000 of those were Palestinian), so between that and those in Iraq, he should still have about half a million potential human shields should he decide to pursue that option.
For all of their rhetoric and speeches, both the US and Iraq are trying to steer clear of each other. The US is in no position to take on Saddam's forces even in a defensive role for the near future, and Saddam knows that the US can probably wipe the floor with him once enough troops get in theater, so he'll want to focus on taking the Saudis down fast to prevent that from happening, or at least limit their confrontation enough to prevent America from getting too enraged and going all Blood-Knight on his forces.
In addition to the other tropes listed, I'd like to add Chekhov's Guns/Armoury to the mix. A lot is happening on the Peninsula right now, but conversations and plans are building up to take things in a lot of different potential directions depending on what order they're fired in.
Was burning the Kuwaiti oil fields planned much in advance? If it looks like he's going to lose Saddam will have more time to damage them and probable some Saudi ones as well.
I remember reading somewhere that the Iraqis were conducting tests with blowing oil wells in Kuwait during December 1990 OTL, but for the life of me I can't remember where. The forces on the ground are too mobile to give much consideration to a scorched earth plan should things go sour, but should Saddam feel that he can't hold on to something, he'll make very sure that no one will be using it any time soon.
Another idea:
What are the Iraqis doing in occupied territories, besides (presumably) looting, raping, pillaging, shooting potentially-troublesome people, etc?
OTL the Iraqis set up some kind of
puppet government in Kuwait before saying "frell it" and annexing it. The article said it was because the Kuwaiti opposition wouldn't cooperate.
How comparatively brutal was the House of Saud at the time? If they're more unpleasant, they might spawn more collaborators.
Aside from the initial round of gunfire and tank shells when the Iraqis came rolling in,
for the moment Iraq isn't messing around in the conquered areas aside from hunting down every trace of the Al-Sabah family from Kuwait. This is going to change once the followup occupation troops settle in and Iraq turns its attention to making Kuwait a nice and loyal 19th Province. Some looting and indigenous Kuwaitis and Westerners are going to be harassed on the street, but nothing on the level of ethnic cleansing...yet.
In the occupied Saudi coastal towns, everyone's too concerned with keeping themselves indoors and their heads down. The area is still primarily the Republican Guard's concern, so we'll see better discipline from them towards civilians in the short term.
Well since the price of oil just went up by about 1000% the U.S.S.R might get a welcome boost in economic terms, having Russia become the USA/Europe/Japan's largest oil supplier would be ideal from Gorby’s POV.
Venezuela, Canada and (if they play their cards right) Iran could also make metric f**k-tons of money ITTL. It's a sellers market right now.
Enjoying TTL so far, there arnt many modern Middle East TL.
Given this, is it likely for Gorby to reconsider and view a long, drawn-out war as beneficial to the Union and its economy and act accordingly ?
Offering to negotiate could be a PR thing to look like a peacemaker while extending the negotiation period as long as possible, thus keeping oil prices high.
Very good points all. Gorbachev wants to be the one to present a diplomatic solution to the Politburo and the world. The old guard are getting increasingly concerned about what's happening to the Union and the seeming impotence of Gorbachev to reverse it. Selling oil to the West will give them a temporary economic boost, but it's not going to be enough to keep the USSR afloat. Right now, he'll be wanting to prove his worth, get some desperately needed cash, and use it to continue clamping down on the breakaway provinces. This can't be sustained forever though; the USSR is going down regardless of what happens in the Middle East.
NeoDesperado
With modern forces and if no real opposition I would be surprised if the Iraqis had to stop within a couple of hundred miles. However no military expert but would have expected scouting forces to be on the outskirts of the Dhahran region very quickly, as well as possible overflights. The down side for Saddam in this is he has to decide almost immediately what he will do about the US forces there. Does he decide to attack them and hope for a quick victory and then some favourable settlement [despite the historical evidence] or risk trying to simply bypass them?
I would expect he will attack, given his nature but that will open up a very bid can of worms.
One small quibble. Its Francois Mitterrand not Paul.
Steve
What Schwarzkopf and the US are crossing their fingers on right now is that Iraqi logistics are too feeble to carry their forces much longer and force them to halt and regroup before continuing south. Saddam will probably engage the American forces in Dhahran while they're still weak if he has to, but the CENTCOM has already decided to pull further down the coast if necessary. It may make for thrilling movies, but no one in the Bush administration wants to see images on CNN of US soldiers getting overrun and thrown into the Gulf.
Fixed the bit with Mitterand, looks like I was thinking of something else while writing that part, thanks for catching it.
Looking at the map of Jordan, if the bulk of Saudi military forces are elsewhere and U.S. troops aren't in the way, it would be pretty easy for them to launch a lightning campaign down the coast and liberate/occupy the Hejaz.
The U.S. primary base seems to be Dhahran, which is in the Eastern Province. If that's where the bulk of US-Iraqi fighting is going to take place, the Jordanians might be able to jump in, occupy some territory, and present a fait accompli.
If the Coalition is busy curb-stomping the Iraqis while the Saudis and other Arab states see off the Yemenis (that'd be a fight more within their capabilities), only to turn around and see the Hashemite dynasty restored in the Hejaz, that would be hilarious.
The Saudis are going to want the Coalition to kick the Jordanians out, but if the combination of war and bad PR bloodies them and the war has been particularly costly to the West, the Coalition might not bother or simply impose a negotiated peace.
(Hmm...no Jordanian/Hejazi union, free access to the pilgrimage sites, etc.)
In trying not to step on any religious toes, the main US ground effort is being focused in the north helping Saudi and left-over Kuwaiti forces against Iraq, while their naval and air forces provide support to a Saudi/Egyptian force down south against Yemen. It's not a perfect scenario to get the job done, but it's about all they can reasonably do right now.
And as for Jordan, I really hate to be a tease about them but we'll just have to wait and see what the future brings.
