Part #293: Distant Rumbles
“Families of victims of last November’s Pittsburgh rail crash today expressed their ‘anger and disappointment’ after the jury at the Pennsylvania Assizes ruled that the incident, which cost sevem people their lives and injured more than a dozen others, had been unavoidable misadventure. Our legal analyst, Mr Lionel Turner, reports.”
“Thank you, Miss Jackson. Behind the public outrage, cooler heads are critical of the approach taken by the public prosecutor in this case. In particular, it is felt that too many potential causes of liability by PennRail were attacked, with the result that the jury were unconvinced by an incoherent list of alleged errors. Rather than the ‘catalogue of failures’ which the prosecution claimed, this instead was interpreted as desperately scrambling to find anything to pin on the powerful public rail corporation with its deep pockets. If the prosecution had instead focused on any one of these points exclusively – the tired driver forced into overtime by allegedly exploitative practices condemned by his trade union, the delayed maintenance on the tracks west of the Pittsburgh Interchange, and so on – then it seems more likely that PennRail might have had to pay compensation. A spokeswoman for the families of the victims was noncommittal on whether they intend to appeal to the Privy Council...”
– Transcription of a C-WNB News Motoscope broadcast,
recorded in Waccamaw Strand, Kingdom of Carolina, 09/06/2020
*
(Dr David Wostyn)
As our team of highly esteemed colleagues
(mutters under breath) collates the appropriate extracts to describe the closing years of the Black Twenties, first I want to pause and look at some underappreciated corners of the world...
*
From: “The Forgotten Continent” by Sir Oswald Young and Philippa Olaifa (2009)—
Africa is a sorely-neglected theatre of the Black Twenties in scholarship. Or rather, we should say, it is the Pact-Cannae conflict, which seems to define much of the Twenties in other parts of the world, that is neglected. One can find many dissertations examining, in graphic detail, the ethno-cultural devastation wrought by the Societists on the continent of Africa; but such ostentatiously pious mourning for that loss is rendered shallow and hypocritical by the lack of interest in the nations of Africa
before their contact with the Threefold Eye. We can find many studies of the Matetwa Empire’s struggle against the expanding Combine, yet mysteriously few discussing their wars against the European colonisers of the Cannae beforehand. At best, this is usually relegated to a mere matinée before the main event in such accounts, which is certainly not how it was seen at the time.
As we’ve discussed elsewhere, to attempt to treat ‘Africa’ as a single entity when covering any period of history is a fool’s errand, yet one also runs into headaches if one tries to treat it as a series of separate regions, as history will inevitably spill over from one to another. Still, we shall try, beginning in the north and west.
Morocco arguably represents the most successful resistance to European colonialism of any of the African nations. Whereas Abyssinia (and, arguably, Kongo) ended up making deals which did not necessarily work out to their advantage, and the Matetwa kept their independence by constant exercise of cold steel, the Sultans of Morocco wisely guided their state through the dangerous years without putting a foot wrong. Or, at least, that is what self-congratulatory official histories would have us believe. In reality, Morocco’s success owed as much to luck as skill, but then that is scarcely unique in the annals of world history. Since the revival of Ottoman power in Algiers in 1861, the traditional alignment of France and the Empire had been disrupted, and Sultan Mohammed V (or rather his minister Fouad al-Jirari) had ably played the two off against one another.[1] The Moroccans feared Ottoman revival would continue westwards and pursued an on-again off-again alliance with France; broader French protection from the Ottomans was mirrored by more immediate Moroccan protection and supply of the neighbouring French colony of Arguin.[2] The Moroccans’ interest in propping up this claim, rather than contesting it, is that during the nineteenth century it provided a useful buffer zone against the Fulani Caliphate and its potentially expansionist Royal Africa Company partner. Morocco had also continued its historical alliance with the UPSA; it had been one of the first nations to recognise the young Novamundine republic, in part due to serving its interests in its historic conflicts with Spain.[3]
Though Morocco remained neutral in the Pandoric War, the conflict changed the world in such a way to require changes in its foreign policy. Sultan Ismail III and his ministers had to respond to the defeat of the Ottomans by the Russians (leading to some unrest in Algiers which faced a crackdown), the ascendancy of the ‘French Vulture’ and the destruction of Morocco’s old ally, the UPSA. Ismail elected to formally join the Marseilles Protocol, though feared Morocco would lose its independence as a result, watching the Mauré example with concern. The defeat of the IEF in South America (to which Morocco would make a token contribution) weakened France’s position sufficiently for Ismail to withdraw from full participation in 1906, as a number of other nations did at the time. As this poisoned relations with the Tuilleries, Ismail began looking to shore up his country’s position elsewhere. His capable Foreign Minister, Abraham Berdugo (descended from Portuguese exilic Jews who had been expelled in 1492) negotiated a series of treaties in 1909-1911 with both the Ottoman Empire and the new Grand Palaver of Guinea. These saw the remaining terra incognita of the Sahara carved up between the three powers on neat ruler-straight lines of latitude and longitude, eliminating rival claims and diminishing the need for French Arguin as a buffer state.
Morocco also pursued more trade in general with Guinea, after historically viewing its components with suspicion. Morocco’s mining industry became more developed in the early twentieth century, becoming a leading supplier of phosphate which would feed world chemical industries (including, unofficially, those in the Combine). Moroccan miners also discovered and exploited haematite deposits in the Rif. Iron production from these deposits was initially primarily exported, but the metallurgical industry was further developed in Morocco as business and the state saw an opportunity in supplying Guinea. Historically Guinea had mostly imported items such as tools and firearms from the ENA, but President Faulkner’s abandonment of free trade with American colonies had caused issues with punishing tariffs. Morocco began to fill part of this gap. This expanding trade meant that Morocco suffered less than many countries from the Panic of 1917, its African trade connexions insulated from the decline of global trade just as the udarkismo of the Combine did. This meant that, when the Black Twenties erupted into war, Morocco was uniquely sited to supply weapons to both sides. Foreign political cartoons of the time picture Morocco, personified as a Barbary lion, learning the way of the vulture from her old mentor, France. Morocco would continue to supply arms to anyone who wanted them and became rich off the proceeds, even helping Guinea develop her own factories to do the same. She would come to regret this when one of her best markets became her old enemies, Spain and Portugal, to fuel their civil wars.
Indeed, Guinea pursued similar exploitation-of-neutrality policies to Morocco in the Black Twenties, though focusing more on the production of raw materials to supply overseas. As angry English commanders in Natal would opine, the Matetwa Empire would probably never have been able to fight on through the war without the supply of certain vital goods from Guinea, a region which fifty years earlier would never have gone against England’s claimed national interests. But identity had moved on, and the ideas of C. B. Kane and the Palaver were creating a new Guinea. The main concern of that Guinea was the continuing expansion of Karlus Barkalus’ Societists from Kongo into the heart of Africa with its vital trade routes. The aforementioned Guinean supply of the Matetwa came entirely by sea, via the Russo-Lithuanian colony of Povilskaja, which rendered ships vulnerable to being stopped by Cannae forces. The Societists’ vaguely-defined sphere of influence in the Congo Basin was effectively a block on what internal African trade had previously existed – though, admittedly, given some of that trade had been in human lives, the situation is not as morally simple as Diversitarians would like to opine.
Guinean concern about the Societists increased sharply throughout the Black Twenties; the eyes of the world were elsewhere, and Barkalus and his lieutenants seized that opportunity. The plague reached North Africa in 1924 and began to spread through the trade routes. Historical epidemiologists argue about how far the Second Plague pandemic, the Black Death, had ever penetrated into Africa; but regardless of such debates, the Third Plague broke out into the interior from 1925 onwards. While the plague’s worst ravages in Africa lay in the future compared to the rest of the world, this death and disruption was already exploited by the Societists.
As an aside, the Societist ‘Doctrine of the Last Throw’ is often described in a manner that makes it sound ideologically coherent and unified. This is not the case, with there being two main schools of Societist thought about the Doctrine even within the Combine. The original conception of the Doctrine, as espoused by its creator Raúl Caraíbas, is that Societists should wait for nations to exhaust themselves through war, then make their move to expand when war-weariness has impaired the nations’ ability to resist. However, while this idea would bear abominable fruit for the Combine in the twentieth century, back in the nineteenth and the Long Peace through which Caraíbas lived, many other Societists scoffed at the idea of waiting for such a terrible war. Others, from the more bourgeois ‘secret society’ Societist tradition of the time (possibly including Bartolomé Jaimes, though records are unclear) instead argued for a variant of the Doctrine that merely exploited temporary inability of a nation to resist. For example, if an army had mutinied over low pay, or the nation had sent it to a faraway war that left the homeland territory vulnerable. These Societists were clearly inspired by Hoche’s invasion of England in 1807, when the Jacobins had opportunistically exploited England sending a chunk of her navy away to fight the UPSA in the Third Platinean War.
It was this second exercise of the Doctrine that Barkalus and his men primarily employed during the Black Twenties in Africa, which arguably lasted longer than they did in most other parts of the world. While Africa was not the top priority for the Combine’s propaganda efforts in supplying regions with Tremuriatix and vaccines, what it did receive allowed Barkalus to make master stroke after master stroke in his conflicts with nations like the Kingdom of Lunda and the Luba Empire. These powers, which often had highly effective governing structures that had perpetuated their existence for centuries in the face of many challenges, now crumbled. It was not merely that the Societists came with modern firearms and tactics, but that in their other hand they offered cures and preventives to the deadly plague that was now ravaging the Congo Basin, brought there by Arab and Persian slave traders. As early as 1925, the Guineans were hearing reports that the eastern shore of Lake Chad – which, according to Berdugo’s treaties, was the territory of the Ottoman-allied Sultanate of Darfur – had been taken by Societist-allied militias. At this point it is very difficult to say which forces were truly ‘Societist’ and reckoned themselves part of the Combine, and which naively thought they were merely making temporary alliances. Nonetheless, this expansion was regarded with alarm by the Guineans.
The Grand Palaver and the Board of Directors feared that Barkalus’ successful propaganda campaign would begin to undermine their own fragile rule. It mattered not that the actual quantities of Tremuriatix and plague vaccine reaching Africa from South America was miniscule compared to the demand; Barkalus employed skilful propagandists, and soon every village had someone who knew someone who had been to a village blessed by the Threefold Eye where no-one feared the plague. Ironically, and contrary to the Societists’ own aims, a fair amount of contemporary art survives in Guinean museums which approvingly represents the Threefold Eye and black flag in uniquely north Bantu styles; perhaps the ultimate expression of a culture that would go on to resist all attempts to quell it.
The Guinean response to this was audacious. Since the Americans had begun producing Birline in 1923-24, they had jealously guarded the patent, using its production mostly to protect their own people and occasionally as gifts for acts of diplomacy, though less commonly than the Societists. Guinea had developed its own chemical industry due to the need to produce anti-malarial treatments in periods of Meridian, and later Societist, monopoly. In the early years this had focused on the growing of cinchona plants for quinine harvesting – indeed, that was primarily the reason why the RAC had expanded south into Duala.[4] Later in the nineteenth century, however, discoveries of anti-fever drugs, produced synthetically from natural precursors, led to development of a specialised factory-based chemical industry in coastal Guinea. Like the Meridians and later the Societists, the Guineans had access to a vast array of natural products from their flora which other parts of the world lacked; the difficulty was in finding ones to exploit. In the short term, Guinea mostly imported experts from abroad (many Meridian Refugiados from chemical companies found work in Guinea) but would also go on to build her own technical universities.
Regardless, the point was that Guinea had sufficient chemical industrial development to produce Birline if she had access to the details of the synthesis. As the Americans protected this, the Board authorised a team of elite Freedish mercenaries to travel to New York, break into a Birley Company factory and open the vault to copy the encrypted formula. The remarkable part is that not only was the team (led by the legendary Emance Bell Rackham) successful in their heist, but the company (and American government) did not even learn what had happened for another quarter-century, so capable were they in covering their tracks. As was seen more tragically with the Societists breaking American military codes, it was clear most Americans were complacent about their cryptography at this point, and a German-built ypologetic engine supplied by the University of Al-Qarawiyyin in Morocco deciphered the formula.[5] Guinea and Morocco’s chemical industries then began production of Birline rat poison, both for the simple humanitarian and economic reasons of protecting their own people from the plague, but also to prevent the Societists from getting the propaganda upper hand. In years to come, they would not only protect themselves, but begin supplying Birline to other African regions in an attempt to combat the Societists’ expansion.
Many starry-eyed Diversitarians will cite Guinea and Morocco’s act of intellectual piracy as a heroic act of anti-colonialism. It is certainly a good story, and more and more far-fetched versions of the heist have created an entire genre in modern African (and beyond) cinema. The altruistic argument slightly falls down, however, when one reflects that Guinea and Morocco just as jealously guarded the formula as America had before them; indeed, their stealthy control of their purloined intellectual property played a major role in the Americans being unaware what had happened. (For years, American courts accepted the claim that the Guineans and Moroccans’s Refugiado chemists had developed a similar but different chemical independently, as the alternative seemed so unthinkable given juries’ prejudices about Africans).
As said above, even in the mid-1920s Darfur was beginning to crumble as Societist cadres and militias roamed the Sahel east of Lake Chad, through lands that a century earlier had been part of the Kanem-Bornu Empire. The Sultanate of Sennar, another Ottoman ally, was more successful in resisting Societist expansion, and even fought beyond its own borders as the Societists reached Lake Cyrus and Kitara. That kingdom, strategically located on the borders of both Russian-allied Abyssinia and Persian-allied Zanguebar saw factionalism at its court of Mengo between partisans of each. But it was the Societists who posed the greatest threat to Kitara, whose ruler
Kabaka Olimi V was focused mainly on which of the Cannae and Pact could provide his land with the most protection against the black flag. The answer, it became increasingly clear behind the honeyed words, was neither. All powers in the region were being drawn farther and farther away by their conflicts elsewhere, which seemed so existential at the time, yet now are often treated as a mere prelude.
Indeed, both Abyssinia and Zanguebar (a Swahili-speaking confederacy controlled mostly by a Persian-Omani ruling class) were beginning to rethink their own alignments. Abyssinia had never set too comfortably in its alliance with Russia. There were confessional reasons for Abyssinia to prefer Russia to other European colonisers, and there was a certain Abyssinophile faction and tendency at the court in Petrograd (especially among Russian artists who admired Abyssinian iconography) but this only went so far. It was clear that Petrograd would always see Gondar as, at best, a junior partner. Repeated entreaties from the latter about Russian Erythrea’s control of various territories which the Gondarine dynasties had seen as core lands were always met with nothing more positive than ‘not yet’. Ultimately, Abyssinia was stuck between a rock and a hard place; the Russians were scarcely the best of allies, yet the Amharic Gondarine regime was always vulnerable to rebellions from the Oromo majority in its expanded territory, and Russia could always provide shock troops such as Cossacks or Yapontsi
nindzhya to put them down. There were external foes as well; the Sennaris, Zanguebar, Kitara and the Scandinavian outpost of Obock, with its ally the neighbouring Emirate of Yemen. The inherent instability of the Gondarine-led state rendered attempts to build a regional coalition by Nagusa Nagast (King of Kings or Emperor) Demetros III, and his successor Susyenos III, unfeasible. Sennar or Yemen would scarcely be interested in an alliance to resist European colonisers when they would both benefit from a collapse of Gondarine power in Abyssinia.
Therefore, the alignment of Abyssinia with Russia made sense as the least bad option, until war came. In the Pandoric War, Abyssinia did not participate (other than joining Russia’s economic blockades, with poor local consequences) until the Ottoman Empire joined the war at the end of 1898. Abyssinian troops joined with those from Russian Erythrea to attack Sennar and the directly Ottoman-administered Red Sea coastline; they played a key role in repulsing an Ottoman-Sennari siege of the key port of Zapodny Benyovsk (a.k.a. Massawa). After the war, the court at Gondar was dissatisfied with its territorial gains in comparison to the blood and effort expended; the borders were adjusted in Abyssinia’s favour and Sennar’s expense in the Gambela region, but coastal expansion north remained firmly in Russian hands. Abyssinian troops had also played a part in taking Puntland from Germany, but at the peace treaty this was unceremoniously handed over to Belgium (along with other German colonies) as a consolation prize for obtaining nothing of worth Maximilian had actually wanted from his participation in the war. Abyssinia was perhaps the only place whose people had actually desired Puntland (known as Wittenberg’s Folly, an economic drain on any who possessed it) and this was regarded as a slap in the face. More Russian troops were required to put down revolts throughout the 1900s and 1910s as a result.
When Russia intervened in Belgium and effectively took control, several Belgian colonies were redistributed; the Belgian Cape, in which the Belgians had fought for expansion in the war for no gain, was merged with Povilskaja and Puntland was belatedly handed over to Abyssinia. Though trumpeted as a triumph by the Gondarine government, this was decidedly too little, too late. It meant that when war came again, Abyssinian public opinion was decidedly unenthusiastic about participation. This time, Scandinavia was a Russian enemy rather than ally, and so Obock and Yemen were threats to Abyssinia along with Persian-Omani Zanguebar and, eventually, the Ottoman Empire and Sennar again. Surrounded and with little public commitment to their alliance, the only thing that prevented a revolution in Abyssinia was fear that the surrounding powers would carve up the nation. The Scandinavians and Yemenites largely ignored Abyssinia in a tacit acknowledgement of the latter’s lack of will in going on the offensive unless provoked first, with Obock attacking Russian Erythrea and the latter making increasingly shrill demands for Abyssinian support.
The Persians and Omanis were less nuanced in their approach; the increasing Russian conquests in northern Persia throughout 1922 and 1923 led to urgent demands for victories under Persian arms that could be trumpeted in the press. Forces from Zanguebar therefore crossed the Chalbi Desert into the Sidamo region with its coffee plantations, while Omani marine forces landed in northern Puntland. Zanguebar armies would besiege and take the port of Mogadishu to join up with the Omanis; by the time of the surrender of Persia in October 1923, the entirety of Abyssinia’s coastline had fallen to the enemy.
That surrender, however, changed matters considerably. As part of a ploy, the Shah-Advocate released Persia’s vassals, allowing Oman to fight on as a separate power. Russian hopes of continuing their expansion to take on places like Oman or Kalat were soon dashed as the fronts of the war multiplied. Indeed, the Russian declaration of war on the Ottoman Empire (and therefore Sennar) meant that Abyssinia was now truly surrounded by enemies. At the same time, with the Persian withdrawal from the war, Oman would now struggle to lead Zanguebar alone. Sultan Faisal bin Sayyid sent diplomatic approaches to France to gauge French support for continuation of the war, and came away dissatisfied; it is likely Changarnier’s infamous independent activities were involved. In March 1924, with the plague beginning to spread and conflict having remained effectively static for months (other than further Scandinavian conquest of Russian Erythrea), Muscat approached both Gondar and Aden to discuss a separate peace.
Susyenos III knew he had little in the way of options. There were virtually no conflict on the western border, as the Sennaris were ignoring orders from Constantinople (and later Alexandria) to attack in favour of focusing on the Societist foe, while Abyssinian armies were close to mutiny. The Scandinavians had almost entirely rolled up the Russians in Erythrea, with only the again-besieged Zapodny Benyovsk still holding out and dependent on Abyssinian supplies. The Omanis had a superficially strong position, but their sole control over Zanguebar was unstable and they, too, were beginning to fear the Societists and the plague as greater threats.
Susyenos therefore repudiated his alliance with Russia and independently signed the Treaty of Zanzibar in May 1924, expelling the remaining Russian troops – of which there were few, having been stripped for Tsar Paul’s ever-multiplying number of fronts. Susyenos and the Abyssinians also joined an ever-multiplying list of ‘traitors’ in the Russian press, along with Prince Yengalychev and the Sikhs. The mob smashed many examples of Abyssinian artwork on display in Petrograd, Moscow and Yekaterinsk. This was an exercise in fanning the flames that many state officials probably thought of as a way for the public to work off their anger from the privations of the war, but it had also awakened a spirit of discontent that would begin to undermine Russia’s increasingly-strained war economy through the plague years.
The treaty was relatively favourable to Abyssinia. Zanguebar would keep Mogadishu and there were a few other border adjustments in the south, with Yemen receiving the Bari region on the uttermost Horn of Africa (despite this having been conquered by Omani troops). Scandinavia, invited only as an observer (also illustrative of increasing Yemenite relative power) annexed the whole of Russian Erythrea, pledging to respect Abyssinian territorial integrity.
With Sennar refusing to attack and informally holding a ceasefire, this left Susyenos with ‘only’ the plague to cope with. That, and the civil war that – finally, and inevitably in the absence of Russian troops – now broke out...
[1] This is using European-style regnal numbers for the Sultans; the system used internally is somewhat different (a similar conundrum to representing Siamese monarchs and many others).
[2] French Arguin has grown to take in a claim of a chunk of hinterland on the continent, not just the titular island.
[3] Similarly, in OTL Morocco was the first country to recognise the USA and pursued a limited alliance in the nineteenth centjury.
[4] See Part #107 in Volume III.
[5] The University of Al-Qarawiyyin is an ancient university founded as a mosque and madrassah in 859 AD; as with some other examples in China and elsewhere, experts argue over when it should be counted from as a ‘modern’ university. In TTL it has modernised and expanded to other disciplines rather earlier than when it did in OTL (1963).