What if Henry VIII allowed the match to happen? If Mary and Philip have sons, what are the changes in the English succession? Also, if Mary becomes queen like in OTL, what happens to Elizabeth?
Mary Tudor Jr. marries Philip of Palatinate-Neuburg and has a son.
- Thread starter archdukeofwasia
- Start date
personally, I suspect changes in Germany would be first. Philipp made no secret that he wished to/planned to contest the imperial succession against Karl V OTL. Phil having kids means that he'd likely push harder to contest the imperial succession. So expect headaches from that (both for Henry and matrimonially with Mary). Assuming Phil still dies as OTL, Mary wouldn't necessarily return to England immediately. After all, she'd be obliged to leave (at least) her eldest son behind in the custody of his Protestant uncle (Richard III vibes anyone?) if she left. But, let's assume that Ottheinrich doesn't murder his nephew and Mary gets it right that her kids can be Catholic...that immediately poses a major problem in the electoral college. Suddenly, the Catholic Electors are/will be in the majority again from 1559. So expect some sort of panicked stampede by the Pfalz rivals in both Saxony and Bavaria at this*.
Now, as to England...it depends what Henry says in TTL 3e Succession Act. If he includes Mary (as OTL), then we have an Anglo-German union 135 years before the Glorious Revolution**. If he rationalizes it that Mary's marriage has cut her out of the succession, then I doubt much changes until Mary dies and her son becomes Elector***. And then the elector claiming to be king of England is perhaps little more than a joke the rest of the electors laugh at behind his back. After all, the Palatinate has no coastline and it would have to get through Belgium/France to England.
Things start getting very interesting if Elizabeth still dies without issue. Because then the Stuarts can't claim to be the senior heirs of Henry VII.
*yes, Bavaria isn't an electorate yet, but they and the Pfalz branch of the Wittelsbachs disliked on another in a way that made Edward VI look like he had a minor difference with Catholics. Also, IIRC, Brandenburg hadn't officially gone Protestant yet
**TBH, without Mary around, I suspect Edward and his counsellors perhaps rush faster and harder into the Reformation once the Catholics are purged from the council. After all, Mary being around meant they had to be very...delicate about how they went about it, lest the emperor take offense.
***also, Lady Jane Grey keeps her head, because Edward will just name Elizabeth as direct successor, no need to worry about sidelining Mary
would Otto having kids of his own let Mary go to England with her son/s?
that relies on Ottheinrich remarrying. And since he didn't OTL, despite outliving his wife, why would he here?
If Mary married Philip of Palatinate she would not be reinstated in the English line of succession with the Third Act of Succession as OTL meaning who she would be a bastard daughter without any right to the Crown, while Elizabeth would be Edward’s heiress presumptive in an England who is quickly becoming more Protestant than OTL, preventing any need from Edward VI to amend the succession in favour of lady Jane Grey as his father had left him with a marriageable heiress presumptive of Protestant religion. And if Edward still died as OTL here Elizabeth would be either already married at his death or married off shortly after leaving no space to Mary and her pretensions. And in any case if Philip died but they had a son Mary would remain in Germany as regent for her son, who has a pretty much guaranteed future as Elector Palatine, unless either his great uncle the Elector or his uncle generate a son and that is extremely unlikely.
I'm curious about something, say Mary is- by some miracle- reinserted in the English line of succession (perhaps she outlives Phil like OTL)- given that the Palatinate has gone to a senior male relative (Friedrich I, Friedrich II) instead of the direct heir in the event of a minor inheriting, would we still see Johann II/Friedrich III of Simmern becoming elector if Ottheinrich dies before his nephew is an adult?
Mary getting back in the line of succession is almost impossible and Palatinate would still pass to Mary‘s son as in any circumstance in which the minor heir was passed the senior heir was his uncle and warden (plus both time the line was reverted to the direct heir): Frederick I displaced and adopted his nephew, while Frederick II likely got the Electorate ahead of his nephew as the latter had already his own lands or for other reasons and in any case both Otto Henry and Philip of Palatinate were already over 40 years old at the death of their uncle Louis V