Maximilian rules Mexico until dying in 1918: What does his Mexico look like

[Jiraiyathegallant]

Franz Joseph lived until he was 86 in 1916. If Maximilian rules Mexico until he is 86 and dies of natural causes, that would place him on the throne until 1918.

Provided he destroys most organized physical opposition in the war by 1865 and cleans up most remnants and insurgents by 1870, what kind of situation does he put Mexico in? Is his rule similar to Diaz, or is he just not brutal enough? To what extent can he achieve economic development?

 

[Viking25]

Franz Joseph lived until he was 86 in 1916. If Maximilian rules Mexico until he is 86 and dies of natural causes, that would place him on the throne until 1918.

Provided he destroys most organized physical opposition in the war by 1865 and cleans up most remnants and insurgents by 1870, what kind of situation does he put Mexico in? Is his rule similar to Diaz, or is he just not brutal enough? To what extent can he achieve economic development?

Probably ends up relying heavily on French support to keep his regime afloat as they were his main backers in OTL not sure how he would do If Nappy 3 gets deposed though that's assuming the Franco Prussian war happens in this Tl. Either way I say more or less as the same as OTL though I only say that as we don't have much evidence to say he was any better of a leader than OTL Diaz.

 

[Sarthak]

Probably ends up relying heavily on French support to keep his regime afloat as they were his main backers in OTL not sure how he would do If Nappy 3 gets deposed though that's assuming the Franco Prussian war happens in this Tl. Either way I say more or less as the same as OTL though I only say that as we don't have much evidence to say he was any better of a leader than OTL Diaz.

economically, the situation would have been better for mexco; Diaz shut off all investments from Austria and restricted the flow of money from other small yet rich countries like belgium, lichtenstein & Switzerland. Maximilian would not do that; his early economic policies do show that much, so trade wise i would think a 30% to 50% increase than otl, which means that the Mexican economy is around 15% to 25% better than otl in 1918. Furthermore, Mexico would have probably been much more stable. Much of the latter diaz instability came from the regime's anti-native attitude. Maximilian was extremely pro-native.

 

[Hecatee]

While I don't know enough about Mexico to say much about that, I'd say that it may change a lot in Europe :

- France and Austria's collaboration in Mexico lead to greater ties, and possibly a French intervention in the 1866 Austro-Prussian war, either directly or just by preventing Italian intervention. This can lead to a longer war with heavier casualities, especially for the Prussians if the Austrians don't have to fight on two fronts or if the Prussians have to deal with a French army too, preventing them from concentrating their forces against Austria.
- Franco-Prussian war of 1870 might be butterflied away, or if the Austrians were indeed defeated in 1866 they may actually try to fight the Prussian again alongside the French in 1870
- Belgium : if they invest in Mexico in the 1860's the Belgian elites may not look toward Africa and thus not take Congo in the 1870's and 80's. But they could make a bid for some more pieces of Central America (buy Belize ?)

 

[Purrangzeb]

Depends on how he would rule. If he's an able administrator and has good lackeys, then Mexico would be better off, with a standard of living perhaps similar to OTL Spain, rather than where it is now.
I wonder, would be try to bring European immigrants to Mexico?

 

[Viking25]

economically, the situation would have been better for mexco; Diaz shut off all investments from Austria and restricted the flow of money from other small yet rich countries like belgium, lichtenstein & Switzerland. Maximilian would not do that; his early economic policies do show that much, so trade wise i would think a 30% to 50% increase than otl, which means that the Mexican economy is around 15% to 25% better than otl in 1918. Furthermore, Mexico would have probably been much more stable. Much of the latter diaz instability came from the regime's anti-native attitude. Maximilian was extremely pro-native.

Fair enough wonder who his heir would be though. I think he adopted the Iturbide boys in OTL to be his heirs but he seems to have been aiming to get one of his brother Karls children as his successor wonder how that would go if he ever actually won

 

[The Gunslinger]

I think he might make a play for Guatemala at some point, and maybe dabble more in Central America. Long shot but fun idea, he grabs Cuba from Spain and it become the jewel of the Mexican Empire.

 

[Rattenfänger von Memphis]

Emperor Maximilian would probably have pursued some of the successful policies of OTL Mexican President Porfirio Díaz who ruled Mexico essentially from 1876 until 1911.

Díaz sought to attract foreign investment to Mexico to aid development of mining, agriculture, industry, and infrastructure. Political stability and the revision of laws, some dating to the colonial era, created a legal structure and an atmosphere where entrepreneurs felt secure in investing capital in Mexico. Railways, financed by foreign capital, transformed areas that were remote from markets into productive regions. The government mandate to survey land meant that secure title was established for investors.

I’m thinking, with the French withdrawal either by 1867 and most certainly after the 1870 debacle of the Franco-Prussian War, that Austria would step up in the place of France to establish firmer links with Mexico. Not only is Emperor Maximilian the brother of Austrian Emperor Franz Josef II but the romance of re-establishing the Austrian Habsburg connection with Mexico which existed in the 1500s would be appealing on several levels.

This time period would be before Austria had reconciled with, and allied with, Bismarck’s Germany. Austria could not hope for a successful war of revenge for her 1866 defeat against the Germans but she could recover some prestige and a new territory for investment and economic expansion ruled by a fellow Hapsburg. This outlet could also compensate Austria for not having a colonial empire of her own.

Empress Carlotta’s brother, Leopold II, was the King of the Belgians and was always seeking colonies, like his infamous Congo Free State. Maximilian and Carlotta might lease her brother some territory to develop.

And who knows but, if things had turned out differently, Maximilian might have emulated Leopold II’s later OTL acquisition of the Congo Free State by buying Alaska from the Russians as a present for Carlotta only to discover just how rich in mineral resources Alaska was which would also benefit Mexico.

 

[Wendell]

A poorer version of the Second French Empire.

 

[pathfinder]

M

And who knows but, if things had turned out differently, Maximilian might have emulated Leopold II’s later OTL acquisition of the Congo Free State by buying Alaska from the Russians as a present for Carlotta only to discover just how rich in mineral resources Alaska was which would also benefit Mexico.

I like the idea, but part of Max's deal with the frogs was that he pay Mexico's very large debt to France, the occasion for the whole intervention in the first place. I doubt he'd pay them off in time to nab Alaska before the Yanks do.

 

[Sarthak]

Fair enough wonder who his heir would be though. I think he adopted the Iturbide boys in OTL to be his heirs but he seems to have been aiming to get one of his brother Karls children as his successor wonder how that would go if he ever actually won

There is a good chance that until 1875 Carlotta remains fertile, so until then, Maximilian & Carlotta can have kids of their own. Both of them had children with their own mistresses and lovers, so the two having kids is not out of the question. Maximilian was looking at the iturbide kids and the kids of his siblings as a failsafe only.

 

[Nivek]

There is a good chance that until 1875 Carlotta remains fertile, so until then, Maximilian & Carlotta can have kids of their own. Both of them had children with their own mistresses and lovers, so the two having kids is not out of the question. Maximilian was looking at the iturbide kids and the kids of his siblings as a failsafe only.

IIRC, the late Robert Perkins commented that the fertility challenged was Maximilian Itself, maybe they could get a lucky break ITTL

 

[Viking25]

There is a good chance that until 1875 Carlotta remains fertile, so until then, Maximilian & Carlotta can have kids of their own. Both of them had children with their own mistresses and lovers, so the two having kids is not out of the question. Maximilian was looking at the iturbide kids and the kids of his siblings as a failsafe only.

Makes some vague sense but I can't find any of their supposed bastard children anywhere on the internet hell neither of them have an issues category on their wikipedia page so I have no idea what you are talking about especially in regards to Carlotta. The woman was kept under house arrest after Maximillians death and I doubt she banged anyone in that time let alone had a kid or are you talking about that rumour of her having a kid by one of her aids? Though if you have any superior knowledge I will reconsider

 

[Sarthak]

Makes some vague sense but I can't find any of their supposed bastard children anywhere on the internet hell neither of them have an issues category on their wikipedia page so I have no idea what you are talking about especially in regards to Carlotta. The woman was kept under house arrest after Maximillians death and I doubt she banged anyone in that time let alone had a kid or are you talking about that rumour of her having a kid by one of her aids? Though if you have any superior knowledge I will reconsider

Maximilian & Carlota: Europe's Last Empire in Mexico is a very good book on the topic. Both of the two took on several lovers in Mexico and Carlota is recorded to have had at least 1 bastard child in Mexico, who died in infancy.

 

[Viking25]

Maximilian & Carlota: Europe's Last Empire in Mexico is a very good book on the topic. Both of the two took on several lovers in Mexico and Carlota is recorded to have had at least 1 bastard child in Mexico, who died in infancy.

Hmm interesting though if that is true then why did Maximillian tolerate something like that? I suppose he could have been fine with it but still it is odd. Either way that only speaks for Carlota and doesn't really prove that Max would have been able to do it

 

[Sarthak]

Hmm interesting though if that is true then why did Maximillian tolerate something like that? I suppose he could have been fine with it but still it is odd. Either way that only speaks for Carlota and doesn't really prove that Max would have been able to do it

The guy had 2 lovers and recorded at least 1 recorded bastard son who died in the Barrios War.

 

[Slime_blob]

The Liberal Reforms of Juarez gave way to the establishment of the Porfiriato economic miracle. I dont think the conservatives would allow these reforms now that they are in power

 

[Viking25]

The guy had 2 lovers and recorded at least 1 recorded bastard son who died in the Barrios War.

Well you have managed to convince me, But the fact they didn't have any after what like 20 something years of marriage doesn't exactly fill me with confidence.

 

[Slime_blob]

I think he might make a play for Guatemala at some point, and maybe dabble more in Central America. Long shot but fun idea, he grabs Cuba from Spain and it become the jewel of the Mexican Empire.

Its unlikely that he even get Guatemala, the US is basically up there probably housing the Mexican republicans

 

[Sarthak]

The Liberal Reforms of Juarez gave way to the establishment of the Porfiriato economic miracle. I dont think the conservatives would allow these reforms now that they are in power

To quote Hamnett, Juárez pg 248 "Juárez's economic policy was such a disastrous policy that even all his own allies deserted in favor of Diaz. Similarly, his economics had been such a failure that people were looking at the days of Maximiliano with nostalgic sentiments. If Juárez's economic legacy is to be reviewed, then it can be summed up in a word as an utter failure."

Well you have managed to convince me, But the fact they didn't have any after what like 20 something years of marriage doesn't exactly fill me with confidence.

It's actually highly possible they have children. Maximilian was getting desperate for heirs and was ready to even get absolute primogeniture. The two are probably going to try for kids a lot in the next few years, when in the previous years they didn't touch each other for years on the end.

Its unlikely that he even get Guatemala, the US is basically up there probably housing the Mexican republicans

Unlikely. Johnson made it clear that if the Republicans lost, then they would have no home in the USA.