Multi-Nation America

Can anyone offer a POD after the American Revolution for the formation of a nation out of (at least) Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin? Extra states from will get you extra points, but the nation may not consist of more than seven of OTL states.

Right now, I'm leaning towards the Toledo War* developing into an actual shooting war. I think the best way for this to occur is:

1809: The Upper Peninsula is combined into the newly created Illinois Territory.

1818: For whatever reason, the entire Illinois Territory becomes the state of Superior (or whatever, the name doesn't matter. It would constist of OTL: Illinois, Wisconsin, U.P., and parts of Minnesota north of the Mississippi River.)

1835: The conflict between the Michigan Territory breaks out. The US government has nothing to trade to Michigan in exchange for the Toledo strip, so fighting between Ohio and Michigan breaks out. Michigan calls for the assistance of its western neighbor, Superior, and Superior's rash, young governor sends the state's militia. No one knows what to do as fighting breaks out between two American states. The federal government tries to step into the fray by sending soldiers north, but soon they are in combat due to a series of follies.

The British, who are in some tough diplomatic times with the US of A, send help to the state of Superior and its allies (Michigan and Indiana Territories), while the federal government sides with Ohio in the matter. The region secedes and eventually gains independence while the federal government is distracted by the war in Texas and an increasingly "hostile" South Carolina.

The new nation, let's call it the American Republic (again, names don't matter) consists of OTL: Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas north and east of the Missouri River. The British gain Aroostook County in Maine. Texas wins its independence and never joins the US. California eventually proclaims independence. The Oregon Territory becomes a British dominion eventually joining with OTL western Canada and Alaska to form the Dominion of Columbia. The US never experiences the Civil War, but trundles along in miniature, consisting of only 24 states. Tear it apart...​
 
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Is the population of Superior enough in 1818 that it would be self-sufficient by 1835? What sort of population growth can that nation expect, until the US comes back and its it back?
 
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