Napoleon III dies between 1866 and 1870

[Shaby]

First of all, I am sorry if this issue was already discussed, but I was not able to find a thread (at least not a recent one) that discusses this.

So the question is, what if Napoleon III dies in the period between 1866 and 1870. I started reading the history of Franco-Prussian war and it seems by that time Napoleon's health was fading and he barely held himself together.

French public really hated that Prussia was uniting Germany and demanded they be stopped by force if necessary. However, if Napoleon died, how deep a crisis in France would develop? If the Prussians used the interval between Napoleons death and some semblance of order is restored in France to establish a German empire, what would the result be?

Would French III Republic declare war on already united empire? Would such empire even exist, absent the French threat, which seems a more likely outcome? Would this torpedo the entire Bismarck's policy? What do you think?

In my opinion, it might scuttle Bismarck and possibly open door to a more liberal country with greatly diminished Prussia.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

I assume with N III dead there is the question of hhis sucession . His Son was born 1856, so he will be still underage. If the Empire continues his Mother Eugenie might become regent (not sure if possible in France). She was anti German, so eventually a conflict like OTL might be the result.

If the Monarchy is overthrown the third republic might be the result. This might actually avert the german-french war (alsace lorraine stays french)

 

[Mikestone8]

One difference. A 14yo Emperor is unlikely to be commanding in person, so Napoleon IV won't be captured at Sedan. Whether he can hang onto the throne is another matter.

OTOH it's also posible that there won't be a Sedan. Iirc MacMahon could have escaped Moltke's trap by falling back on Paris, but the Emperor vetoed this, fearing that the blow to his prestige might be fatal. If the Emperor isn't with the army, that is far less of a consideration, so that Paris has an army to defend it, and also to put down any insurrection there, if the troops are loyal.

 

[Shaby]

If the Monarchy is overthrown the third republic might be the result. This might actually avert the german-french war (alsace lorraine stays french)

If they avert the war, how could Bismarck generate the momentum for unification? It was only due to the threat of imminent French invasion and memory of Napoleonic taxes and levy that Southern Germans accepted Prussian dominion in the German Empire.

This is especially true if there is no Louis-Napoleon. The truth is, the French were mostly scared of German unification, but the existence of Napoleon was perfect for Bismarck to scare Southern Germans into submission.

The second question is - what happens in case of his death? How orderly a succession would be? Would the cities rebel and attempt to recreate a radical workers republic?

 

[Rich Rostrom]

If they avert the war, how could Bismarck generate the momentum for unification? It was only due to the threat of imminent French invasion and memory of Napoleonic taxes and levy that Southern Germans accepted Prussian dominion in the German Empire.

By 1870, Prussia already controlle half of Germany directly, and is establishing ascendancy over the three southern states.

Unification is coming in a few years regardless.

 

[Dorozhand]

Napoleon III dies in 1869.

Napoleon IV is crowned Emperor with his mother as regent.

The Franco-Prussian war still begins in 1870 and France loses the early battles.
Instead of fighting at Sedan, however, MacMahon, without Napoleon III in the way, reacts to von Moltke's strategy and makes a fighting retreat back to the defense of Paris. The Prussians besiege the city.
Several offensives to the south of Prussian line force them to draw forces away from the siege of Paris.
A small French victory bolsters morale as the French keep harrassing the Prussians and bleeding their forces. The Prussians give up the siege.
The faults of the Prussian army become evident like they one day would in WWI. The French start learning from their mistakes and winning victories against Prussian armies. The souther German states lose confidance in Prussia and pull out.
MacMahon begins an offensive and drives the Prussians back from central France and towards the border. The Prussian strength is beginning to sap.
MacMahon continues pushing and eventually defeats VonMoltke on Prussian soil, Bavaria declares war on Prussia and invades Thuringia. Bismarck is fired and Germany sues for peace. The French annex the Palatinate, Bavaria annexes Thuringia, the North German Confederation is dissolved, and Prussia pays an indemnity.

Napoleon IV reaches maturity and presides over much expansion and renovation of the French Army and Navy. France is a world-class military power once more.

 

[Shaby]

Interesting scenario. Would it be possible to smother the nationalism of Germany and Prussia that easy?

 

[Mikestone8]

Interesting scenario. Would it be possible to smother the nationalism of Germany and Prussia that easy?

No it wouldn't. France gets an easier peace settlement - perhaps able to hold out for making territorial concessions or paying an indemnity but not both - but unless Nap III's removal has made the French Army magically more efficient, it is still going to lose - just not so badly.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

First Empress Eugenie was the designated Regent. Second When does Napoleon III die? This is important because I know he started liberalizing the Empire but I can't remember what year it was mostly done in. Eugenie was conservative and in OTL would do anything to get her son on the throne and keep him there. So would she keep liberalizing France or stop the reforms and rely on the army? Also in 1867 the Luxembourg crisis occurred which let to France looking greedy and power hungry. So would Eugenie try to purchase Luxembourg or no? If inot then maybe France would have an ally or two. Third, would there even still be a war? The crisis started that led to the war started over putting a member of the House of Hohenzollern on the Spanish Throne. So would Eugenie feel strong enough to demand that the Hohenzollern candidate is withdrawn. Also Bismark manipulated the situation with the Ems Dispatch, which was between King Wilhelm I of Prussia and the French Ambassador, and was designed to make each nation think the other had gravely insulted them. Would Eugenie take the bate? Fourth, in OTL Eugenie was close friends with the Austrian Ambassador and his wife, the Prince a& Princess Von Metternich, and pushed very hard for a Franco-Austrian Alliance. So with Eugenie at the helm she could probably get it. So with France and Austria allying it would force Prussia to fight a two front war, not to mention the south German states might side with Austria over Prussia. So all in all, it would have been better for the Bonapartes if Napoleon III had just died sooner.

 

[Dorozhand]

First Empress Eugenie was the designated Regent. Second When does Napoleon III die? This is important because I know he started liberalizing the Empire but I can't remember what year it was mostly done in. Eugenie was conservative and in OTL would do anything to get her son on the throne and keep him there. So would she keep liberalizing France or stop the reforms and rely on the army? Also in 1867 the Luxembourg crisis occurred which let to France looking greedy and power hungry. So would Eugenie try to purchase Luxembourg or no? If inot then maybe France would have an ally or two. Third, would there even still be a war? The crisis started that led to the war started over putting a member of the House of Hohenzollern on the Spanish Throne. So would Eugenie feel strong enough to demand that the Hohenzollern candidate is withdrawn. Also Bismark manipulated the situation with the Ems Dispatch, which was between King Wilhelm I of Prussia and the French Ambassador, and was designed to make each nation think the other had gravely insulted them. Would Eugenie take the bate? Fourth, in OTL Eugenie was close friends with the Austrian Ambassador and his wife, the Prince a& Princess Von Metternich, and pushed very hard for a Franco-Austrian Alliance. So with Eugenie at the helm she could probably get it. So with France and Austria allying it would force Prussia to fight a two front war, not to mention the south German states might side with Austria over Prussia. So all in all, it would have been better for the Bonapartes if Napoleon III had just died sooner.

Napoleon III dies in 1869

Napoleon IV is crowned Emperor with Eugenie as regent

Eugenie, being conservative and having no love for the Prussians, I think would take the bait of the Ems Dispatch even more readily than Napoleon III did

France and Prussia go to war, but Eugenie manages to strike an alliance with Austria. Austria invades Saxony and Silesia. Two armies besiege Liegnitz and cut off the Oder while another takes Gleiwitz, Beuthen, and Oppeln in quick succession. Prussia scrambles to array armies against Austria as confusion erupts on the French front.

Bavaria and Wurttemburg declare neutrality in the wake of the Austrian offensive.

As Prussian forces are rushed to the defence of Silesia, and without the aid of Bavaria and Wurttemburg, the French forces are able to inflict a decisive defeat against Friedrich Wilhelm at the Battle of Wörth. Wurttemburg and Baden are impressed by this and join France in declaring war on Prussia. Prussian forces are forced into a bottleneck by Bavaria's nuetrality.

Mac Mahon discards Frossard's plan, executing Adolphe Niel's plan for an agressive offensive. He leaves Wörth to confront Prince Friedrich Karl's Second Army in the Rhineland. Friedrich Karl links with the First Army at Trier.

Mac Mahon calls Canrobert's VI corps from the Belgian border and gathers more men from the other French armies, putting the remaining forces under Canrobert's command where they aid Baden and Wurttemburg in taking Darmstadt. Mac Mahon's army of the Rhine defeats Friedrich Karl at Trier and takes the city. Crown Prince Friedrich Wilhelm, who took command of the unified army, died in the battle.

Mac Mahon is made commander in chief of all French armies by Eugenie after this victory.

Meanwhile, a Prussian army confronts Austria at Liegnitz and drives them back, but the armies regroup and link with the army Oppeln and defeat Prussia, taking Breslau. Bavaria declares war on Prussia and invades Thuringia.

The Kaiser, after suffering the loss of his heir and numerous defeats, has had enough of the debacle and sues for peace. With French armies looking poised to explode into Prussia, the Kaiser sees himself as forced to cede the Rhineland to France. Baden receives Darmstadt, Bavaria gets Thuringia, Austria annexes Saxony and southern parts of Silesia.

 

[wolf_brother]

Yeah, no, just stop. France is not going to annex any German states/territories. They're not going to be interested in it, the Germans aren't going to let them without a fight, and the European community (read; Britain) is not going to be pleased with such an idea, to say the least. At best France gets Luxembourg, but that's not all that likely as a result of the war itself, more in the build-up to said war.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

Yeah, no, just stop. France is not going to annex any German states/territories. They're not going to be interested in it, the Germans aren't going to let them without a fight, and the European community (read; Britain) is not going to be pleased with such an idea, to say the least. At best France gets Luxembourg, but that's not all that likely as a result of the war itself, more in the build-up to said war.

Perhaps the North German Confederation would be dissolved and Hanover would be restored. I can see Luxemburg going to France but I agree there is no way that France gets the Rhineland. At best it could become a DMZ but Prussia would give up their industrial heart, not unless Berlin itself is occupied and even then, Britain and Russia would probably step in.

 

[wolf_brother]

Perhaps the North German Confederation would be dissolved and Hanover would be restored. I can see Luxemburg going to France but I agree there is no way that France gets the Rhineland. At best it could become a DMZ but Prussia would give up their industrial heart, not unless Berlin itself is occupied and even then, Britain and Russia would probably step in.

It depends on the scale of the French victory, if one at all (though I certainly think it's possible - it was a much closer fought conflict IOTL than many are willing to admit). Also, it depends on when the POD is, and when the clash between Paris and Berlin occurs - again, if at all.

 

[wolf_brother]

While Napoléon III wasn't in the best of health in his latter years (1), he elected not to undergo the surgery that ultimately killed him IOTL earlier because he didn't want to be incapacitated while at the helm of of his empire. He, and everyone else in Paris, knew his time was running up; it was a very public secret in Paris, you find most newspapers and letters of the late 1860s mention it quite openly and frequently. When Napoléon III traveled to the spas at Plombières-les-Bains and Vichy in 1866 it was, to put it lightly, a very big deal. Afterward he made his son start to sit in on council of state meetings, and made it public that in case of his passing Eugénie was to become Regent. The imperial couple secretly planned to abdicate on Prince Napoléon's eighteenth birthday.

So by late 1866 all the pieces are already in place for a post-Louis-Napoléon Second Empire, all you need to do is get Napoléon III to elect to have the surgery earlier. This is going to mean that he needs to at least believe that his empire is secure, both internally and externally. So the Luxembourg Crisis likely needs to be resolved in a different way from IOTL. Either the sale goes through peacefully (Bismarck backs down), or von Beust's mediation is successful (Leopold II backs down), or a war breaks out between the French & Austrians against the Prussians in which the latter is defeated, or etc.



(1) He suffered from recurring kidney stones, rheumatism, and gout, among other issues, which, in addition to his advanced age and years spent either on the run or locked in less-than-optimal conditions (especially his time in Ham), meant that by 1865 he was limping, and by 1866 his weight was fluctuating wildly and he was often lethargic. After visiting the spas in late 1866 his health recovered for a time, but by late 1868/early 1869 it began to decline again, rather sharply.

 

[KnightofTempest]

The problem with your premise OP, is that Prussia needs a war with SOMEBODY to get the south german states on their side for unification. The best bet was France, who historically had believed that France's "Natural Border" was the Rhine, and who had played the bad guy in the most recent round of Giant European Hegemonic Struggle (TM) The fact that the current French Emperor was related to the last one certainly helped things, and of course the Ems Dispatch was cleverly doctored.

The point is, without a war or at least some other serious crisis, Prussia is NOT convincing Saxony and Bavaria to break away from their alliance with Austria in order to join a Kleinedeuschland headed by Prussia. Now, Prussia could go conquering the South German States, but that gets Austria involved in the war and most likely France jumps in anyway to put these "Upstart Germans" in their place.

Short answer is if Napoleon III dies before Prussia can go to war with France, Prussia is NOT going to be forming Germany in the interrim.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Perhaps the North German Confederation would be dissolved and Hanover would be restored. I can see Luxemburg going to France but I agree there is no way that France gets the Rhineland. At best it could become a DMZ but Prussia would give up their industrial heart, not unless Berlin itself is occupied and even then, Britain and Russia would probably step in.

I think that yes no major French gains would be made in the Rhineland itself.. maybe some token border adjustments, temporay occupation for a significant number of years as a guarantee of reparation payments....

The Rhineland is more likely to be divided among the various German partners that were on the winning side or cadet branches... Austria probably doesn't want Saxony per se, though the extra German's within the empire would be welcome. All Silesia though would be more welcome as they have the historical context... Pushing the the Bavarian palatinates borders northward seems likely, and there are a number of deposed Hapsburgs that could sit in the northern Rhineland or Silesia..

though I suppose giving Saxony to a deposed Hapsburg and putting the Wettins in the northern Rhineland is also an option. Restoring Hannover is also an option...Junior Wittelsbach lines are also and option.

 

[Mikestone8]

Napoleon III dies in 1869

Napoleon IV is crowned Emperor with Eugenie as regent

Eugenie, being conservative and having no love for the Prussians, I think would take the bait of the Ems Dispatch even more readily than Napoleon III did

Agreed. The weaker her regime is the less she can afford to look feeble.

France and Prussia go to war, but Eugenie manages to strike an alliance with Austria. Austria invades Saxony and Silesia. Two armies besiege Liegnitz and cut off the Oder while another takes Gleiwitz, Beuthen, and Oppeln in quick succession. Prussia scrambles to array armies against Austria as confusion erupts on the French front.

Forget it. Austria won't move until she's seen the outcomes of the initial battles, and once Prussia wins those, intervention is off the agenda. After 1866, Franz Josef will count to 100 before making a move. Also, having just brought in conscription in 1868, the Austro-Hungarian army is even more disorganised than in 1866, and there is grave danger of Russian intervention against her.

BTW, Prussia already has an army on the Austrian border. Bismarck and Moltke were taking no chances. There would be no need to
"scramble", esp as all Prussia needs is to contain Austria until she has finished defeating France.

Bavaria and Wurttemburg declare neutrality in the wake of the Austrian offensive.

Ditto. Bav and Wurt won't betray their alliance with Prussia unless/until Prussia is clearly losing, and without Austrian intervention (very doubtfully even with it) that will never happen.

Bavaria also has the problem that if France acquires any territory it is most likely to be Bavarian territory in the Palatinate. That doesn't make co-operation easy.

No one will join France until she is clearly winning, and given the state of her army, that moment won't ever come. If MacMahon avoids Sedan, her defeat is less catastrophic than OTL- but she's still defeated.

 

[wolf_brother]

If MacMahon avoids Sedan, her defeat is less catastrophic than OTL- but she's still defeated.

Not to derail the thread Mike, but I've seen you comment in a lot of Second Empire-related threads before, so I'm wondering what your thought process is on this. If MacMahon had been able to fall back to Paris and hold off the Prussians there, why would the Germans still win the war? IOTL the Prussian siege was nearly broke at Beaune-la-Rolande, ITTL the French will have a greater advantage.

 

[Matteo]

If they avert the war, how could Bismarck generate the momentum for unification? It was only due to the threat of imminent French invasion and memory of Napoleonic taxes and levy that Southern Germans accepted Prussian dominion in the German Empire.

This is especially true if there is no Louis-Napoleon. The truth is, the French were mostly scared of German unification, but the existence of Napoleon was perfect for Bismarck to scare Southern Germans into submission.

The second question is - what happens in case of his death? How orderly a succession would be? Would the cities rebel and attempt to recreate a radical workers republic?

I think you have the point.

If Napoleon III dies between 1866 and 1870 before declaring war on Prussia, then there is most probably not going to be war.

During a regency, it is not Eugenie who is going to rule France (a woman does not rule France in this time of the napoleonic civil code which legallly made women some kind of perpetual minors). The imperial constitution states that there is a council of regency.

I think that if there had been a regency, then France would have continued in its evolution to a constitutional and democratic monarchy. In may 1870, Napoleon III had organized a plebiscite on a constitutional reforme which paved the way for a parliamentary regime. And it was a triumph : very strong participation and 83% of the vote in favour of the reform.

There was no majority for the republic in the time : people wanted democracy and order but actually did in their majority not care about republic or monarchy.

Forget also about the commune of Paris. It's the war, the siege and the starvation that was the main cause for this parisian revolution.

Of course Bismarck wanted war as the detonator of german unification. But if he wanted it is precisely because at the time Bavaria, Wurtemberg and Baden did not want unification. They had just been defeated in the austrian-prussian war of 1866 and had been forced into a defensive (only) alliance with Prussia.

It is only because Bismarck trapped Napoleon III into declaring war that Bismarck was able to bring the south german states with Prussia and its northern Germany confederacy in the war against France.

I've read that Bismarck had alternate plans to trigger or even declare himself a war on France, but I think Bavaria, Wurtemberg and Baden would not have followed. By declaring war, France isolated itself on the diplomatic scene, and it would have been the same for Prussia.

Bismarck was of course absolutely right in thinking that only a defensive war against France could trigger a premature german unification in the kind of authoritarian, militaristic and Prussia dominated organization that he wanted.

Southern Germany was mainly catholic while northern Germany was mainly protestant. Remember that just after the unification of Germany, Bismarck started his kulturkampf policy which was basically a persecution of the german catholic church perceived as anti-unification and almost anti-german.

But anyway, even limited to the frontiers of the northern Germany confederacy, Germany would have been the number one power on continental Europe.

 

[Mikestone8]

Not to derail the thread Mike, but I've seen you comment in a lot of Second Empire-related threads before, so I'm wondering what your thought process is on this. If MacMahon had been able to fall back to Paris and hold off the Prussians there, why would the Germans still win the war? IOTL the Prussian siege was nearly broke at Beaune-la-Rolande, ITTL the French will have a greater advantage.

So Paris may well not fall - hence the easier peace - but the Germans are still well inside France, and there's no particularr reason to think the French can drive them out. Germany at least equals France in manpower and excels her in leadership.

Nor has France any hope of finding allies. If Austria joins her (unlikely) Italy and Russia probably join Germany, so the only change is that Austria goes down with France.

France has, however, a fair chance of getting off without loss of territory, if she ressits stubornly enough.