Napoleonic Victory: effects on the Portuguese and Spanish colonies?

[El_Presidente]

Basically, Napoleon never invades Russia, instead reorganizing Eastern Europe and the Balkans so both sides are (more or less) pleased; without having to worry about Russia for the time being, and with Russia still embargoing the Brits, eventually the Spanish guerrillas are crushed, and french control is stablished in Spain and Portugal.
How would this effect the Spanish and Portuguese colonies? Would they declare indepence or would some kind of government in exile be stablished there? Would order completely collapse, with a more balkanized South America eventually emerging from the chaos? Also, what would happen to other colonies like the Philipines?

 

[ByzantineCaesar]

I don’t think much would change in Spanish America, except maybe a Bourbon getting the throne in Mexico, which would be big. The most serious change would be Brazil, which would permanently host the Portuguese court, leading to a stabler and more centralized government earlier than usual, though some provinces might still follow the Spanish example and wage independence wars against Rio, like Pernambuco did in 1817.

 

[Miguel Lanius]

If Napoleon wins in Spain, then he will have the following problems:

1. Putting someone amenable to him on the throne

2. Putting someone amenable to the general popullation, the nobility, the military, etc, on the throne

Both kinda clash.

Furthermore, there's no guarantee the Spanish colonies are going to follow a puppet king. The British are on the prowl and would have no interest in a Hispano-America ruled by a puppet king ruled by Napoleon.

Portugal is also going to end up a puppet kingdom as well.

Hispano-America might try and find someone else that can take the throne in the continent, be it a legitimate claimant or a european noble, and failing that, go independent.

One possible outcome is that the British pretty much give the Luso-Brazilians carte blanche (or Carta Branca in this case) to invade South America all over and insert puppet/allied monarchies all over, not to mention allowing them to expand. The Plata might end up entirely Luso-Brazilian (there were plans for that), while the rest become British-Brazilian Condominiuns and friendly countries.

The most serious change would be Brazil, which would permanently host the Portuguese court, leading to a stabler and more centralized government earlier than usual, though some provinces might still follow the Spanish example and wage independence wars against Rio, like Pernambuco did in 1817.

No Independence War + no Regency Era = The perfect set-up for a Luso-Brazilian Wank.

 

[Dave Shoup]

Basically, Napoleon never invades Russia, instead reorganizing Eastern Europe and the Balkans so both sides are (more or less) pleased; without having to worry about Russia for the time being, and with Russia still embargoing the Brits, eventually the Spanish guerrillas are crushed, and french control is stablished in Spain and Portugal.
How would this effect the Spanish and Portuguese colonies? Would they declare indepence or would some kind of government in exile be stablished there? Would order completely collapse, with a more balkanized South America eventually emerging from the chaos? Also, what would happen to other colonies like the Philipines?

If we're talking a POD after 1808 or thereabouts, Brazil may host the Braganzas, beginning with Joao VI, who may decide to declare himself emperor of Brazil and king of Portugal-in-exile; or they may cast their lot with France. Same for the Bourbons, given the realities of the histories of both Carlos IV and Fernando VIII, it's entirely possible Napoleon coopts one or both (Fernando was in captivity, after all), as well as Joao.

If not, the likely refuge for Joao is Brazil; the Bourbons, however, were hardly beloved in Spanish America, and the example of the US was pretty obvious; American, British, or joint Anglo-American support for independence movements in Spanish America is pretty much guaranteed, as Miranda's career illustrates.

 

[GlobalHumanism]

Any chance a revolutionary Republican Spain might emerge?

 

[funnyhat]

Basically, Napoleon never invades Russia, instead reorganizing Eastern Europe and the Balkans so both sides are (more or less) pleased; without having to worry about Russia for the time being, and with Russia still embargoing the Brits, eventually the Spanish guerrillas are crushed, and french control is stablished in Spain and Portugal.

Paradoxically, Napoleonic victory in Spain probably requires less French control, or at least the appearance of less. Joseph Bonaparte needs to be seen as independent of his brother to win more of the Spanish people over to his side. Louis managed to do this in the Netherlands as he made efforts to adopt Dutch culture and keep the country relatively independent - to the point that he annoyed his older brother and was removed.

Whether Joseph can win over the Spanish people is hard to say, but it seems very likely that he cannot win over the American subjects. The idea of independence has already been planted in their minds. I like the idea of the Bourbons moving there though (and even becoming leaders of the revolt?).

 

[Gukpard]

If Napoleon wins in Spain, then he will have the following problems:

1. Putting someone amenable to him on the throne

2. Putting someone amenable to the general popullation, the nobility, the military, etc, on the throne

Both kinda clash.

Furthermore, there's no guarantee the Spanish colonies are going to follow a puppet king. The British are on the prowl and would have no interest in a Hispano-America ruled by a puppet king ruled by Napoleon.

Portugal is also going to end up a puppet kingdom as well.

Hispano-America might try and find someone else that can take the throne in the continent, be it a legitimate claimant or a european noble, and failing that, go independent.

One possible outcome is that the British pretty much give the Luso-Brazilians carte blanche (or Carta Branca in this case) to invade South America all over and insert puppet/allied monarchies all over, not to mention allowing them to expand. The Plata might end up entirely Luso-Brazilian (there were plans for that), while the rest become British-Brazilian Condominiuns and friendly countries.

Napoleon planned to break up Portugal into three minor duchies:

Algarves in the south, a portuguese rump state in the middle and in the north the Septentrional Lusitan kingdom