NATO stops short of the Yalu

[White Lightning]

How would the history of the Korean Conflict progressed if NATO had obeyed China’s demand that they stop their offensive thrust just short of the Yalu River? I mean by that point they had already conquered most of Korea. China was rightly fearful of another foreign invasion after having suffered 4 invasions in the past Century.

 

[WILDGEESE]

I might be wrong but if thought it was UN Forces not NATO.

Regards.

 

[Cook]

Firstly, it is important to note that forces fighting in Korea did not come under NATO command and were not activated as part of the North Atlantic Alliance. Forces in Korea were activated by the United Nations and came under a unified UN command; that's why countries such as Thailand, the Philippines, Australia and Ethiopia, none of whom were NATO members, sent forces there.

The Chinese issued their first warning on the 20th October, 1950, prior to any UN forces crossing the 38th parallel; the Chinese and Russian leaderships were determined to prevent the fall of North Korea rather than prevent UN forces from approaching the Yalu River.

 

[Ramontxo]

Mac Arthur retires in a blaze of glory and gets a school or a public library named after him in every small, medium and big American city. From there on, butterflys and big ones... For example, Truman prospects look so better that Ike doesn't run. But six consecutive same party presidencys are a bridge too far an Taft is elected. A (very) Isolationist Presidency follows and Germany is left out of NATO....

 

[RightHoJeeves]

Mac Arthur retires in a blaze of glory and gets a school or a public library named after him in every small, medium and big American city. From there on, butterflys and big ones... For example, Truman prospects look so better that Ike doesn't run. But six consecutive same party presidencys are a bridge too far an Taft is elected. A (very) Isolationist Presidency follows and Germany is left out of NATO....

I don't think Truman would have run for a second full term, he was pretty worn out by 1952. He only half-heartedly sought the nomination that year because he couldn't find an acceptable replacement before the primaries began. Corruption and communist paranoia were looming issues that would have impacted his popularity.

As for Taft, he had terminal pancreatic cancer and would be among the shortest serving presidents since he died only three months after his diagnosis in April of 1953. Much would depend on who is running mate is and whether Ike would jump in at the last minute to stop his nomination since that was his biggest motivation to run that year.

 

[Wolttaire]

What would the border look like because there is no way they would allow USA forces on the Chinese or Russian border

 

[RightHoJeeves]

What would the border look like because there is no way they would allow USA forces on the Chinese or Russian border

A good stopping place would be north of Pyongyang where the peninsula is still narrowed before tapering northeast towards the border with Russia. There would be new DMZ there with a rump DPRK between it and the Yalu.

 

[Simon]

What would the border look like because there is no way they would allow USA forces on the Chinese or Russian border?

The obvious solution is for the Chinese to trade recognition of a united Korea for certain concessions regarding troops levels, their deployments within the peninsula, and perhaps a DMZ on the Korean side of the Yalu. If the UN already control the southern half of North Korea it's probably more advantageous to see them removed than continuing to prop up the North.

 

[sloreck]

Once China has intervened to "save" North Korea to allow the communist regime to be totally eliminated would constitute a huge loss of face even if there was a guarantee of no US forces within a given distance of the border - the ROK forces would be there and they are US allies - China would be seen as incapable of "protecting" its allies. A line across the waist of North Korea would be quite defensible. Had the Chinese been able to break through the UN lines along the current DMZ I expect they would not have retreated to essentially a status quo ante bellum border. Like OTL, I think the Chinese would have made extraordinary efforts to at least get to the pre-war border before a cease fire, but if they were not making progress eventually accept a border across the waits. Expecting them to give an inch more than the UN occupies, especially all of the DPRK is not in the cards.

 

[Simon]

... China would be seen as incapable of "protecting" its allies.

Other than the USSR and North Korea what other allies did the PRC have during the period? There were the Viet Minh, who even if the Chinese withdraw from Korea are still going to keep fighting, but other than them I'm struggling to think of any.

 

[thorr97]

If the West "wins" in Korea - i.e. forces the Slavering Red Hordes back further then they started at - then the pressure to "hold the line" in Vietnam would be even greater. And the US/ Western involvement would be greater and earlier.

 

[CalBear]

China didn't have allies. It was breaking from being a quasi client state of the USSR due to differences in Doctrine and North Korea was just sort of there.

China engaged when it did because Beijing was, not without reason, worried that MacArthur wasn't going to stop heading north/northwest until he hit Mongolia.

If Dougie stops 100km from the Yalu, leaving the PRC that as a buffer, the War is over in 1950. Of course telling MacArthur that he'd gone far enough was never going to work, the NCA was merely mortals and he was General of the Armies DOUGLAS MacARTHUR, Shogun of Japan and a god who walked.

 

[sloreck]

I agree in 1950, other than the DPRK, China had no allies/clients. However while accepting a smaller/buffer DPRK is something that can be "acceptable", once China has thrown in to defend its communist neighbor, letting the DPRK be extinguished would be a huge loss of face for China and a weight they'd have to carry forward.

 

[CalBear]

I agree in 1950, other than the DPRK, China had no allies/clients. However while accepting a smaller/buffer DPRK is something that can be "acceptable", once China has thrown in to defend its communist neighbor, letting the DPRK be extinguished would be a huge loss of face for China and a weight they'd have to carry forward.

Absolutely agree. Once Mao threw 180,000 "volunteers" south the die was cast. Even the CCP wasn't going to "understand" tossing away that. The fact that the Chinese "unrecoverable" losses wound up over 200K (low end) to 600K (high end) was better than allowing the West to roll up to the Yalu.