I'd worry more about French intervention. Before Leopold was offered the throne, Napoleon III was paranoid about Montpensier getting it.
No 1868 Spanish Revolution, or Infante Juan, Count of Montizón becomes King of Spain?
- Thread starter Sardar
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I'd worry more about French intervention. Before Leopold was offered the throne, Napoleon III was paranoid about Montpensier getting it.
Would France risk sending its army south opening itself for a German attack?
Even if they think Spain is weak, I'm not sure they risked that without being sure that Prussia won't attack them from behind / the UK will support them / both.
Considering that he withdrew the troops from Mexico because he considered it much more important to protect himself from the Prussian threat than to try to shore up the Second Mexican Empire, I would say that this may have been true in 1862 but in 1868 it is more doubtful.
Like I said, I think Nap III wouldn't roll that dice without getting at least some guarantee that he's not going to be facing a war on two fronts.
(Not that Nap III did well in the one-front Franco-Prussian War, but he has no way of knowing.)
In this scenario, I imagined Montpensier was dispatched somewhere else so as to not be a factor in Spain.
For Alfonso Carlos, Theo Aronson's Royal Vendetta (a biography regarding the Carlists)
Why was that guy hated so much? For the very few things I have read about him, he seemed like a reasonable guy, outside his political scheming, of course. And to me, he seemed more capable than whatever the Spanish Bourbons (of whatever branch) had to offer to Spain.
If any, his political cunningness probably could have saved Spain of one or two problems they had at that time.
Within Spain, I believe this was the main reason. Nobody was willing to trust him when he did nothing to make himself trustworthy--using his private fortune to undermine his sister-in-law Isabel.
Outside of Spain, it had more to do with the Orléans clan being a polarizing bunch in general (to put it mildly. Even on here, discussions concerning them can still become rather heated). Louis Philippe I, his father, and his descendants were all rich and politically active, but in a decidedly 'middle of the road' sense. They were liberal, but not completely liberal; conservative, but not completely conservative, and like all 'new' dynasties were eager to legitimize themselves.
They never fully succeeded. Like many conciliarity movements, they never succeeded in convincing diehards from any camp to fully convert to their cause (except diehard Orléanists). Ardent supporters of the Ancien Regime detested them as traitors, while strict Bonapartists and Republicans obviously didn't care for them as wealthy princes of the blood.
I was hoping to prevent the 1868 Revolution, who it seems he was one of the architects of.
So I think a better question would be this: What would happen if the Revolution of 1868 never occurs for one reason or another? I assume Isabella's regime is on the out and out, but what replaces it? And is the Third Carlist War preventable, and if so, how?
(As a sidenote, I was thinking of a no 1868 revolution scenario as complementary to the survival of Max's Second Mexican Empire, where Montpensier would conveniently be shuffled off to Mexico under Emperor Max to scheme for an American throne, likely Peru)
Also, what the heck happens in France and the rest of Europe? How does the German unification shake out, if it happens at all? If it does happen in a similar manner to OTL, how does the transition from Second Empire go, and may the chances of another French monarchy being established under the Bourbons or Orleans increase?
I can definitely imagine a scenario in which the Third Carlist War results in the enthronement of Carlos VII as King of Spain, but nothing with Juan de Montizón. Juan's situation was kinda similar to that of Emperor Maximilian of Mexico; too liberal for the Carlists, while the liberals would never trust him (or his heir, the ultra Duque de Madrid).
No, the only architect of Isabel's downfall was the queen herself. You can delay the revolution by one or two years, but not to avoid it.
You can't. That was pretty inevitable due to the massive instability Spain was suffering, and the societal split between liberals and conservatives.
Isabella's husband, be a Saxe-Coburg or anyone else, would still be just a pawn in the 'big' Spanish game. Had he brought foreign influence with him, many would have resented that and made his position more unconfortable.
To avoid the revolution you need to change too many things in Spain.
To avoid the revolution you need to change too many things in Spain.
Again, you can't. Spain was a highly unstable society split between multiple political and social factions, each with their own influence and power. OTL was about as peaceful as such a mess could ever be.