No Deng? China stays communist
- Thread starter mishery
- Start date
Ironically, China would probably be less of a threat to the USA, but politicians would probably be more hostile to China b/c US corporations wouldn't be lobbying hard for access to Chinese suppliers and markets.
The biggest beneficiary would be India. They wouldn't have to fight the Chinese propaganda machine before foreign businesses realize that the Indians actually have better law enforcement and a more educated population.
Finally, I imagine that the Chinese economy would be unable to support such a large military, esp. b/c the military is one of the most successful business investors. Net result: a recognized independent Taiwan, maybe even Hong Kong?
The biggest beneficiary would be India. They wouldn't have to fight the Chinese propaganda machine before foreign businesses realize that the Indians actually have better law enforcement and a more educated population.
Finally, I imagine that the Chinese economy would be unable to support such a large military, esp. b/c the military is one of the most successful business investors. Net result: a recognized independent Taiwan, maybe even Hong Kong?
In reference to the initial post of the thread.
Interesting.
With this decission and the cold war between United States in late 70´s and the 80´s well is possible that if China could not aproach to USA because it remains the imperialist enemy it decides to approach Soviet Union (yes I know remains the fact of the conflict between Vietnam and China but well sure Soviet Union had could find a solution because this possible alliance with China is more important than the problems with Vietnam).
A possible timeline (sorry for the mistakes) could be:
1976: dead of Mao, struggle for the power, in this ATL the struggle last more that in OTL.
1978: Den Xiaoping fails to gain the struggle for the power against Hua Guofeng, he is accused of revisionism and searching alliances with the imperialists. Late in this year Hua Guofeng arrests Jiang Qing and the other members of the "Four Gang"
1979: Invasion of Cambodia by Vietnam and Afganistan by Soviet Union. Failure of the chinese plans to be autosufficient. War between China and Vietnam is a failure for China, he gains some territory in the frontier with Vietnam but the losses are very high.
Disturbances between the muslims of Sinkiang caused by the maoists politics of Hua Guofeng and the losses in Vietnam war cause public demostrations.
1980 Represion against public demonstrations in China. Hua Guofeng and Chen Xilian visits Moscow in one of the most shockings events of the 80´s.
Beginning of the negotiations between China and Soviet Union for an economic agreement.
1981. The polish crisis. Martial law in Poland. Chinese leaders supports in public the politics of the Breznev doctrine.
1982 Economic Treaty between China and the Soviet Union. Vietnam announces that is prepared to negotiate a peaceful agreement with China about Cambodia.
1983 Andropov succesor of Breznev. Vietnam and China accords a neutral government under Sihanouk. The Khmer Rouge accuses of traitors to the Chinese.
1984 Andropov signs the Mutual help and not Agression Treaty between China and Soviet Union. Andropov says that "only exists one China and Taiwan is part of China, we supports our brothers in this fight against imperialism in Taiwan".
1985 Beginning of the Andropov reforms (in this TL Andropov not dies in 1984 in part because the great personal happines by the new relations with China that helps his mind to resist his illness more). The perestroika is launched as economic measures to reform the sick body but not the pure comunnist heart of the Soviet Union ( in words of Andropov)
1986 An incident in a lithuanian central (not an important accident only an incident) marks the need for Andropov to deeps in the reforms. he orders a report to the Akademgodorok experts. China and the Soviet Union signs all a series of treaties to help mutually in the way of the economic reforms.
Japan, China and the Soviet Union signs a treaty to permit japanese investments in China and Siberia in exchange of technology. Ronald Reagan acusses Japan and some western european countries to help the communist regimes of China and Soviet Union to survive against the history.
To be continued in the next post.
Interesting.
With this decission and the cold war between United States in late 70´s and the 80´s well is possible that if China could not aproach to USA because it remains the imperialist enemy it decides to approach Soviet Union (yes I know remains the fact of the conflict between Vietnam and China but well sure Soviet Union had could find a solution because this possible alliance with China is more important than the problems with Vietnam).
A possible timeline (sorry for the mistakes) could be:
1976: dead of Mao, struggle for the power, in this ATL the struggle last more that in OTL.
1978: Den Xiaoping fails to gain the struggle for the power against Hua Guofeng, he is accused of revisionism and searching alliances with the imperialists. Late in this year Hua Guofeng arrests Jiang Qing and the other members of the "Four Gang"
1979: Invasion of Cambodia by Vietnam and Afganistan by Soviet Union. Failure of the chinese plans to be autosufficient. War between China and Vietnam is a failure for China, he gains some territory in the frontier with Vietnam but the losses are very high.
Disturbances between the muslims of Sinkiang caused by the maoists politics of Hua Guofeng and the losses in Vietnam war cause public demostrations.
1980 Represion against public demonstrations in China. Hua Guofeng and Chen Xilian visits Moscow in one of the most shockings events of the 80´s.
Beginning of the negotiations between China and Soviet Union for an economic agreement.
1981. The polish crisis. Martial law in Poland. Chinese leaders supports in public the politics of the Breznev doctrine.
1982 Economic Treaty between China and the Soviet Union. Vietnam announces that is prepared to negotiate a peaceful agreement with China about Cambodia.
1983 Andropov succesor of Breznev. Vietnam and China accords a neutral government under Sihanouk. The Khmer Rouge accuses of traitors to the Chinese.
1984 Andropov signs the Mutual help and not Agression Treaty between China and Soviet Union. Andropov says that "only exists one China and Taiwan is part of China, we supports our brothers in this fight against imperialism in Taiwan".
1985 Beginning of the Andropov reforms (in this TL Andropov not dies in 1984 in part because the great personal happines by the new relations with China that helps his mind to resist his illness more). The perestroika is launched as economic measures to reform the sick body but not the pure comunnist heart of the Soviet Union ( in words of Andropov)
1986 An incident in a lithuanian central (not an important accident only an incident) marks the need for Andropov to deeps in the reforms. he orders a report to the Akademgodorok experts. China and the Soviet Union signs all a series of treaties to help mutually in the way of the economic reforms.
Japan, China and the Soviet Union signs a treaty to permit japanese investments in China and Siberia in exchange of technology. Ronald Reagan acusses Japan and some western european countries to help the communist regimes of China and Soviet Union to survive against the history.
To be continued in the next post.
First of all: I have no idea at the beginning that I went to try to make a timeline in answer to the question of Mishery (my English is not very good, it is true sometimes I need to look the dictionary Spanish-English), but my mind assault me and decided to begin a little timeline.
Second: I am newbie to this forum and I have a character very sociable and direct (the fear is to be too much sociable and direct -could be my genetic, the basques are very sociable people, Iñaki is a basque name-) so please if making this timeline for answer the question of Mishery I have broken any law in the forum to make a timeline of my own in answer to the initial thread please tell me, I would not want to offend anyone.
Well the continuation of the timeline: No Den Xiaoping in the power answering to the question of Mishery.
1987. January: the experts of Akademgodorok present their report to Andropov and Politburo, they said that the economic reforms are very necessary, they advise to strengthen the ties with China, and make a complete reform of the nuclear power stations to stop possible new incidents and accidents.
With the fact that the reforms to the nuclear power stations implies that the Soviet Economy with a great dependency of nuclear energy will suffer a slower growth, Andropov decides to deepen the economic reforms, but he refuse the radical views of his protegee Gorbatxev.
He prefers to strengthen the ties with China, continue with the perestroika with more measures but for Andropov is clear that this reforms have to be cautious and no politic reforms, he doesn´t want any concession to possible reforms to make more democratic the Soviet Union.
March: coinciding with the retreat of the last vietnamese troops in Cambodia; China, the Soviet Union and Japan signs an agreement to deepen the economic ties and the exchange of technology.
April: for the first time since a long time ago, Moscow announces that he sees with good looking a meeting between the leaders of the two Germanies.
May: Erich Honecker, Helmuth Kohl and the soviet foreign minister Anatoli Dobrinin meets at Bonn and signs the agreement about to make possible a distension in Europe, also a series of minor economic agreements between the two Germanies and between Western Germany and Soviet Union are signed.
June: China and the Soviet Union agrees to make a joint meeting with the Afghan government later in november to discuss a possible joint politic about Afghanistan. From 1986 the air losses of the Soviet Union had been growing a lot caused by the deployment of Stinger missiles by the afghan guerrilla.
July: a sudden worsening of the health of Andropov causes his death in 21 july by a heart attack. The struggle for the power in the Kremlin begins.
Second: I am newbie to this forum and I have a character very sociable and direct (the fear is to be too much sociable and direct -could be my genetic, the basques are very sociable people, Iñaki is a basque name-) so please if making this timeline for answer the question of Mishery I have broken any law in the forum to make a timeline of my own in answer to the initial thread please tell me, I would not want to offend anyone.
Well the continuation of the timeline: No Den Xiaoping in the power answering to the question of Mishery.
1987. January: the experts of Akademgodorok present their report to Andropov and Politburo, they said that the economic reforms are very necessary, they advise to strengthen the ties with China, and make a complete reform of the nuclear power stations to stop possible new incidents and accidents.
With the fact that the reforms to the nuclear power stations implies that the Soviet Economy with a great dependency of nuclear energy will suffer a slower growth, Andropov decides to deepen the economic reforms, but he refuse the radical views of his protegee Gorbatxev.
He prefers to strengthen the ties with China, continue with the perestroika with more measures but for Andropov is clear that this reforms have to be cautious and no politic reforms, he doesn´t want any concession to possible reforms to make more democratic the Soviet Union.
March: coinciding with the retreat of the last vietnamese troops in Cambodia; China, the Soviet Union and Japan signs an agreement to deepen the economic ties and the exchange of technology.
April: for the first time since a long time ago, Moscow announces that he sees with good looking a meeting between the leaders of the two Germanies.
May: Erich Honecker, Helmuth Kohl and the soviet foreign minister Anatoli Dobrinin meets at Bonn and signs the agreement about to make possible a distension in Europe, also a series of minor economic agreements between the two Germanies and between Western Germany and Soviet Union are signed.
June: China and the Soviet Union agrees to make a joint meeting with the Afghan government later in november to discuss a possible joint politic about Afghanistan. From 1986 the air losses of the Soviet Union had been growing a lot caused by the deployment of Stinger missiles by the afghan guerrilla.
July: a sudden worsening of the health of Andropov causes his death in 21 july by a heart attack. The struggle for the power in the Kremlin begins.
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There are 3 alternatives to Deng:
1] Total bureaucrtic stasis -- China does Brezhnev (minus the eyebrows)
2] Very incremental reforms in the direction of private ownership at the low level which are are gradually allowed to grow to moderate size
3] Another wave of radical Maoism looking to root out corruption and backsliding. This may turn China into one big North Korea. A scary thought for everyone, starting with the Chinese.
Tom
1] Total bureaucrtic stasis -- China does Brezhnev (minus the eyebrows)
2] Very incremental reforms in the direction of private ownership at the low level which are are gradually allowed to grow to moderate size
3] Another wave of radical Maoism looking to root out corruption and backsliding. This may turn China into one big North Korea. A scary thought for everyone, starting with the Chinese.
Tom
Well the fact is I have decided to make an own thread about a no Den Xiaopoing in the power timeline.
This is because the thing is developing seriously (My god! ) I think even in making maps.
So I will develop this timeline in another thread.
But first say to Mishery: your idea is very original, thanks a lot to cause to my mind think about make a first timeline of my own
An second answering to your question totally: I think that not only could be possible an alliance between China and Soviet Union caused because China decides to remain with a communist planned economy, but this would cause surely the effect to slow the fall of the Soviet Union.
So if Deng Xiaoping not gains the power, well is possible nowdays the Soviet Union exists and is more or less allied with China.
This is because the thing is developing seriously (My god!
) I think even in making maps.So I will develop this timeline in another thread.
But first say to Mishery: your idea is very original, thanks a lot to cause to my mind think about make a first timeline of my own
An second answering to your question totally: I think that not only could be possible an alliance between China and Soviet Union caused because China decides to remain with a communist planned economy, but this would cause surely the effect to slow the fall of the Soviet Union.
So if Deng Xiaoping not gains the power, well is possible nowdays the Soviet Union exists and is more or less allied with China.