No Greco-Italian War

[Color-Copycat]

Mussolini's invasion of Greece eventually escalated beyond the means of the Italians, so Germany was forced to intervene and delay the start of Operation Barbarossa in order to prop up their ally.

So what if the Italians hadn't invaded Greece during the Second World War?

 

[Some Bloke]

They'd have to invade somewhere to make up for the loss of prestige in Africa and to assert their authority within the Axis, maybe Mussilini ignores Hitler and invades Yugoslavia as planned.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

If the Greeks hadn't invaded anywhere, as I think your scenario is asking, then there would be an earlier Barbarossa. As winter would come later, the Germans might even take Moscow. Or maybe not, it depends, but I think we'd see a further German advance. I don't think the Nazis would win, personally. But it's possible. At the very least it lengthens the war.

 

[informationfan]

If the Greeks hadn't invaded anywhere, as I think your scenario is asking, then there would be an earlier Barbarossa. As winter would come later, the Germans might even take Moscow. Or maybe not, it depends, but I think we'd see a further German advance. I don't think the Nazis would win, personally. But it's possible. At the very least it lengthens the war.

well, preparations and weather for barbarossa mean that you can start 4 weeks earlier, so you have 4 "good" weeks more...
also, 4 weeks less air war with uk means lesser losses... this improve german air force...

but 4 weeks more aren´t enough to beat russia - maybe leningrad fall (this would improve german position, but not enough to "win"), moscow could fall, but the germans couldn´t hold it

the winter is still very cold and an unpleasent surprise for the germans, even if i agree that 4 weeks more war before winter means 4 weeks more heavy russian losses, so less russians can counterattack

but also more germans will be lost in this 4 weeks... it is an interesting plot... also the consequences in other areas...

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Still, I have a hard time seeing Yugoslavia not happen. If Mussolini don't have his Greek trouble, he might invade Yugoslavia, or the OTL coup happen and the Axis can't ignore the Yugoslavs (also it would please German allies with claims on Yugoslav territory).

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Still, I have a hard time seeing Yugoslavia not happen. If Mussolini don't have his Greek trouble, he might invade Yugoslavia, or the OTL coup happen and the Axis can't ignore the Yugoslavs (also it would please German allies with claims on Yugoslav territory).

The problem with this is that Germany have friendly relations with the regent of Yugoslavia. Far more so than with Metaxas. An invasion of Yugoslavia without German consent will cause big rifts in the Axis, especially since it'll postpone Barbarossa. I doubt they'd do it when Germany is involved in Russia. Also, Yugoslavia is a stronger army on paper than the Greek, and that's all the Italians paid attention to. And the Italians would probably just send forces to Russia with the Germans. More so than in OTL, as they don't have Greece to deal with. Or they could invest more in North Africa.

 

[von Adler]

The Italians will probably focus more on East Africa and Libya - remember that the invasion of Greece happened a full month before Operation Compass. If those supplies, arms and reinforcements had been sent to Libya instead of Albania, the British might have had a harder time. The Italians in North Africa desperately needed AT guns, armoured cars, tanks and modern artillery and most of all trucks for mobility and supply.

 

[wkwillis]

The Germans invade Russia four weeks earlier, and forty percent slower because the dirt roads are still wet. The Russians use their railroads to move their troops around faster than the Germans can use their horse drawn wagons and the result is that the Russians don't lose more troops to "cauldrons" than maybe Bialystock. The Germans are just as effective as in OTL, but slower moving.

The Germans have to kill the Russian troops instead of just surrounding them, and run out of combat infantry in September instead of December, probably in the process of losing the battle of Kiev.

That would be a very different war.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

The problem with this is that Germany have friendly relations with the regent of Yugoslavia. Far more so than with Metaxas. An invasion of Yugoslavia without German consent will cause big rifts in the Axis, especially since it'll postpone Barbarossa. I doubt they'd do it when Germany is involved in Russia. Also, Yugoslavia is a stronger army on paper than the Greek, and that's all the Italians paid attention to. And the Italians would probably just send forces to Russia with the Germans. More so than in OTL, as they don't have Greece to deal with. Or they could invest more in North Africa.

But if the OTL coup happen, which still is quite likely, the Axis can't ignore it.

 

[Cook]

But if the OTL coup happen, which still is quite likely, the Axis can't ignore it.

The British Secret Service was heavily involved in the Coup, and operating from Greece at the time and the Coup was prompted by Prince Paul’s signing of the Tripartite Treaty. He signed the treaty under pressure from Germany so that they could transit Yugoslav territory to attack Greece.

So no Greek War means no strong British Secret Service presence in the Balkans and no immediate pressure to sign the Tripartite Treaty, so in all likelihood no coup in March and no invasion in April.

 

[Snake Featherston]

If the Germans don't invade Barbarossa they run into a Soviet army that was on full combat alert and ready to fight them. That's going to bugger their blitzkrieg very, very badly in the long term. They may not get past Kiev if they get to Kiev and they certainly won't get near Leningrad or Moscow.

 

[The Vulture]

My question is what happens with Bulgaria in this scenario.

 

[Enigmajones]

If they had invaded Yugoslavia first it would probably do the trick.

 

[Snake Featherston]

If the Greeks hadn't invaded anywhere, as I think your scenario is asking, then there would be an earlier Barbarossa. As winter would come later, the Germans might even take Moscow. Or maybe not, it depends, but I think we'd see a further German advance. I don't think the Nazis would win, personally. But it's possible. At the very least it lengthens the war.

Actually they'd run into a Soviet army where the whole thing's ready for them and expecting the shooting to start and authorized to fire back at them. That would be very unpleasant and the Germans won't have anywhere near the easy time they did IOTL turning their qualitative superiority in weaponry into victories if there's more freedom by the Soviet generals to actually act without Beria's basement awaiting them. That doesn't lengthen the war, it shortens it, and sets up a somewhat more favorable geopolitical situation for the Soviet Union, and depending on just how it works it may butterfly away the Holocaust as we know it, as that depends on where German lines wind up by winter 1941.

 

[lionhead]

If its true that no Greco-Italian war would mean no coup in Yugoslavia then they would join the Axis no doubt. Perhaps the Yugoslavs would attack Greece themselves?

Could you see Yugoslavians in Barbarossa? They had a decent amount of soldiers, definitly useable when equipped with German weapons and armour. They also had a decent airforce with some useful aircraft.

Also Italian army would have less losses(in both manpower and prestige) and would do better in Africa. That is, untill the USA joins the war.

 

[juanml82]

I expect the Germans will invade the USSR when the mud clears and they will still achieve strategic surprise due Stalin's stubbornness.

They also won't lose their paratroopers in Crete, although they might not be useful in the USSR. Malta, perhaps?

 

[Color-Copycat]

Yeah, since it was Crete that really soured Hitler on the idea of airborne troops, I can definitely see him approving an assault on Malta. With Malta falling into German hands, how would the Allied supply lines in the Med fair?

 

[juanml82]

They'll supply through Suez. The Axis supply lines, OTOH, will be a lot safer. They will still be defeated both in the USSR and Africa in the long run, but they may hold longer in North Africa, thus postponing the invasion of Italy. If it's postponed for a year, it will be happening around the same time as DDay (which won't be postponed, or the Soviets will end up occupying all Germany).

 

[Snake Featherston]

I expect the Germans will invade the USSR when the mud clears and they will still achieve strategic surprise due Stalin's stubbornness.

They also won't lose their paratroopers in Crete, although they might not be useful in the USSR. Malta, perhaps?

No, actually the original target date was accepted by Stalin. The Soviets will be allowed to shoot back and know this before the Germans are almost to Minsk.

 

[juanml82]

I don't see how the lack of the invasion of Yugoslavia changes Stalin's perception of all the intelligence reports he was getting about the German build up.