No Southern Strategy: The Political Ramifications of an Alternate 1964 Election

SPOLIER: He does run for the NC nomination. All I'm saying is that the choices at the 1984 election could be between a giant douche a turd sandwich and Roy Cohn.

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This timeline just merrily chugs along on the crazy train. I'm rootin' for a Presidential Election that breaks less than 50% turnout due to those choices.
 
Just read this tonight. I'll probably go back over to make sense of the Limey stuff later. Good stuff though. A few questions.
The main Democratic candidate who ran to succeed him was former interm Cleveland Mayor, Jerry Springer.

Did you mean Cincinnati, or did Springer get butterflied to the other corner of the state?

What is the black vote like ITTL? I'm pretty sure all the black candidates you've included have been Republicans. Did they swing back toward the party of Lincoln at some point? Or is it more of a regional thing?

Also, abortion is an issue that's come up a few times, but to clarify, has Roe v. Wade, or anything equivalent, happened yet?
 
Update 21: Amendment XXVII
(Amendment XXVII)​


Section 1. Equality of rights under the law shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of sex.

Section 2. The Congress shall have the power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.

Section 3. This amendment shall take effect two years after the date of ratification.

The start of the Equal Rights Amendment has it's origins in another Amendment, the 19th. Suffragists like Alice Paul did not see voting rights as the end to the struggle of equality, it was only a stepping stone. The ultimately goal was an Amendment specifying equality between the sexes.

It was controversial, and split feminist against feminist over the issue. Some argued it was the only way to achieve true equality between men and women, others argued woman needed "specific bills for specific ills." The League of Women Voters opposed it on the grounds it would remove some labor protections from women. Eleanor Roosevelt attacked it on the grounds it benefited middle and upper class women, while working class women were left without necessary government protection.

The Republican Party included support of an Equal Rights Amendment in its platform beginning in 1940, and the Democratic Party followed in 1944. For years it stood more as a symbol then actual policy. It was only in the early 1970's, however, with significant pressure from President Humphrey and groundswell supporters, did Congress take any action. Conservative woman, lead by Phyllis Schlafly, mobilized their opposition toward it once it became a possibility it was pass.

Throughout the 1970's it took a backseat to various other nationwide problems, occasionally prolonged by Congress but given little attention by Presidents Humphrey, after his initial push, Howell, or MacBride as they had other issues that took precedent even as it slowly was ratified by the states. Most major Presidential candidates in 1972, 1976, and 1980 officially backed it in their speeches but offered little else in terms of substance as it crept closer and closer to ratification.

And late in 1980, just before Christmastime, did the Illinois State Senate ratify it, the House having done so months early. Illinois, on December 23rd, 1980 became the 38th state to ratify the Equal Rights Amendment as the 27th Amendment to the United States Constitution.

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News of it was lost soon afterward. MacBride was shot, the Manson's dominated the airways and printed media. Even as many of the women in the National Conservative Party cited it as their main reason for joining, backing the parties push to repeal it, very few people would have known that fact.

Come December 23rd, 1982, two years after ratification, did it finally take effect. Conservative anger was stroked much during the election that year, and while the NCP only got one more man in the Senate, and lost a few seats in the House, they stood as a reminder of the large section of the populace who remained opposed to the Equal Rights Amendment and who wanted it gone. Despite this, a large amount of conservatives held it as a good thing, even if they didn't trumpet it as much as their liberal counterparts.

Vice-President Black notably welcomed it, giving an hour long lecture on the history of it on ABC the day before it took effect. More a year into her term as Vice-President, she remained the most popular member of the Cohn Administration and was used as his media spokeswoman for important issues. She also had a personal connection to the 27th Amendment, as she was instrumental for pushing for a ratification extension, alongside Democrat Elizabeth Holtzman of New York, when it looked as if it may barely miss the 1979 deadline set by Congress.

A new era had arrived with the ERA. Would it be a pillar of American laws like the Reconstruction Amendments? Would it be quickly seen as a mistake and repealed like Prohibition? No one knew by 1982, but both sides had a vested interest in seeing it succeed or fail.
 
Just read this tonight. I'll probably go back over to make sense of the Limey stuff later. Good stuff though. A few questions.


Did you mean Cincinnati, or did Springer get butterflied to the other corner of the state?

What is the black vote like ITTL? I'm pretty sure all the black candidates you've included have been Republicans. Did they swing back toward the party of Lincoln at some point? Or is it more of a regional thing?

Also, abortion is an issue that's come up a few times, but to clarify, has Roe v. Wade, or anything equivalent, happened yet?

I'll let Nofix answer the Springer stuff as it's not really my domain.

The black vote differs from region to region. In the south it's predominately still Republican due to many Democrats (+NC'ers being left over relics from the Jim Crow era.) Elsewhere in the country it is roughly split with more religious, populistic and liberal leaning voters voting Democrat - the opposites voting Republican and a few deciding to vote for the NCs. However overall I'd say that the black vote is significantly more Republican than IOTL and could be said to be trending towards the GOP (especially after the first black Governor and Senator since reconstruction (Charles Evers (R-MS) and SMW Edward Brooke (R-MA), respectively) are Republicans.

On abortion Roe V. Wade was never brought before the court and instead Doe V. Bolton became the landmark ruling. The court in that instance decided 5-4 to not overturn the Georgia Abortion Laws. This in effect signalled that abortion was still illegal. As of the present day ITTL (1982-83) abortion is still illegal and many (social) conservatives in the three main parties (though mostly Democrats and NatCons) are pushing for stronger sentences for those who undergo and administer abortions. The SCOTUS as of the next update will become much more strongly positioned on this issue with more partisan appointees coming along.
 
Just read this tonight. I'll probably go back over to make sense of the Limey stuff later. Good stuff though. A few questions.

Did you mean Cincinnati, or did Springer get butterflied to the other corner of the sstate?

You can't make sense of the Limey stuff, no one can. Not even Gonzo, and he wrote it!

I could have sworn it was Cleveland, fixed. Apologies.
 
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Update 22: John Bell Williams and Orrin Hatch
Having a minority in the House would normally have rendered a party useless against the majority party. Having a minority in the Senate would normally give them some small measure of power against a majority party. Having a minority with the "supply and confidence" of a third party put them half-way between in control, and locked out of control. The new third party on the block, the National Conservatives, intended to pull the Republicans to the right, and their leader Jesse Helms threatened to pull out if the Republicans didn't give them what they wanted in terms of legislation.

While much of the Republican-National Conservative legislation was based on cutting taxes (which only passed in small doses), gutting welfare programs (which was stonewalled by the Democratic House), and increasing military spending (which did pass through with the help of Democrats who wanted more pork for their states and districts) and other right-wing demands, it had a hard time getting through. Their demands were unpopular in Congress and to most voters. The President offered little help. In the face of repeated failures to extract concessions from the Republicans, Helms demanded during a private meeting with the Senate Republicans a constitutional amendment as a price for containing their "coalition".

To balance out the Equal Rights Amendment, which Helms openly degraded as "discrimination against good and proper women" and a product of the "secular, pro-abortion, anti-family, and anti-god leftist elite" there should be a Values Amendment. One barring homosexuality from being practiced or promoted in any form, enshrining a ban of abortion for any reason (including rape, incest, or danger to the mother: something the court had decided was improper as at times an abortion might be the only way to save a woman's life), and explicitly describing marriage as a union between a man and a woman. Senate Majority Leader Robert Taft Jr. refused to entertain Helms' outrageous demands any more and told him "either shut up and behave or get out you SOB!"

Helms announced the next day the Senate coalition, lasting a whole five months and twenty-two days, was over. The remainder of the two years would have the National Conservatives "fighting tooth in nail to put God back in government, Christ in our schools, and faith back in our souls", at least according to Helms. Him and his party intended to fight every battle as if it were their last, and intended to treat moderation and compromise as heretical ideas pushed on them by their enemies.

Jesse Helms overestimated his power. Yes, fifteen seats out of one hundred was a lot for a third party, and he controlled his fourteen and fifteen man caucus extremely well for the first few years. But his scorched earth tactics quickly alienated him from the Republicans, whom he could have pushed rightward with some more quiet and gracious maneuvering. His fellow Senators on both sides of the aisle hated him for a plethora of reasons, the biggest being his demeanor.

Whatever you said about Jesse Helms, you couldn't say he was a nice or a popular man among his colleagues. When John Bell Williams died and his replacement Rubel Phillips (a Republican appointed by Governor Evers) arrived, Helms attacked him as not deserving of that seat, having gained it through illicit means (what kind he never said), and tried to have him not seated by the whole Senate. His plot was foiled when the Democrats refused to back him up on the issue, more then content in whittling down the NCP caucus and embarrassing Helms at the some time.

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John Bell Williams was one of the original 14 NCP members in the Senate, a lifelong Democrat who lost the 1978 Senate primary in Mississippi and ran as an Independent instead. After his victory and two years on the political outskirts, he sided with the National Conservative Party after a little plying by Helms, and was the first to leave it. His death tremendously hurt the NCP as one of their old guards was now dead, and one of the few forces that was restraining the party hardliners was now gone.

Williams had combated those who wanted obstruct both majors parties regardless of what issue it was. Williams just wanted to pursue a conservative agenda via wheeling and dealing, as had been done since the first Congress. But his style was the old one, one of small victories via compromise and politicking. But a new generation of right-wingers emerged who didn't want old politics, they wanted something new, something more moral and holy rather then the muck of same-old, same-old politics.

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As the NCP moved away from pulling the Republicans to the right, and entered full obstruction mode, they actually helped out their enemies. While the GOP was vigorously attacked by the National Conservatives, they managed to deftly pull out victory after victory even if it wasn't particularly conservative. A big reason for that was the President himself: Roy Cohn was in many ways the ultimate foil to the NCP. While right-wing, he had no particular train of thought, or conservative ideology he trumpeted. Whatever was accomplished or finished during his time in office was a means to an end, a way to continue staying in power and achieving more success. That sort of governance was anathema to the base of the NCP, who held that conservatism should come first, not political self-preservation that Washington insiders did.

Cohn was seen as everything they hated: a longtime political insider, a closeted homosexual, and a man with no principles other then "stay in power at all costs." The right-wing base they cultivated loathed the man with a personal ferocity he just brushed off. He almost seemed above them, as if they were too insignificant to be noticed, a perception that fed into their ravenous hatred and opposition to him.

A good example of how the National Conservatives worked to undermine the Cohn Administration and failed is by looking at his Supreme Court appointees. Unlike MacBride, who only appointed one man to the Court, Cohn managed two appointments during his first term. First was Robert Heron Bork, who he nominated after the resignation of Potter Stewart on December 10th, 1981. The Democratic control of the Senate, and the Judiciary, allowed them to examine and pass the Circuit Judge after a tough, but fair, examination. The Democrats treated Cohn respectfully if suspiciously, the years of rumors of him coloring some perceptions.

Cohn's second appointment to the court, this time to replace Archibald Cox (who died of pneumonia in early 1983), went much rougher. Originally Cohn planned to appoint Elliot Richardson, on advice from several cabinet members and former President MacBride, who kept some of his fingers in the political waters from his home in Vermont. He was supported by several members of Congress, from both parties, and should have easily passed through. Instead, Senate Judiciary Chairman Lucien DiFazio (NC-CT) would not allow hearings for Richardson. Allegedly it was due to his competence, and lack of experience as a judge. Majority Leader Taft came to Cohn and told him what was really going on, it was Helms who was ordering DiFazio to obstruct Cohn until "Helms is personally asked whom he thinks is best qualified for the Court." Apparently Helms felt insulted that he wasn't personally asked by the President who he thought was most qualified for the court.

Instead of giving Helms the satisfaction of forcing the President on his level, he refused to meet with Helms and stuck out with his nomination of Richardson. Eventually Richardson asked to be withdrawn, uncomfortable with the circus regarding his nomination. Cohn was embarrassed and scrambled to find a new man. He had a few choices before him, but waited until the Senate coalition ended and moved to appoint someone substantially different. On advice from Utah Governor Monson, Cohn moved to appoint Utah District Judge Orrin Hatch to the Supreme Court.

Hatch would prove to be an acceptable enough choice that the new Judiciary Chairman pushed him through the Committee, and he was passed on a mostly party-line vote, nearly every Republican and National Conservative voting aye, nearly every Democrat voting nay. One of the primary motives of Hatch's appointment was the fear that the western conservatives that had been split behind MacBride and Jackson in 1980 might go uniformly for whoever the NCP candidate was in 1984 and possibly later years. The loss of states like Utah and Wyoming might not hurt too much electorally, but losing more Senators and representatives to the NCP (a fear expounded to Cohn by Monson and some other Western Republicans) and to the Democrats (who would win among a split right-wing field) could make Congressional majorities difficult, if not outright impossible.

Hatch would be President Cohn's longest serving appointment, eventually becoming the senior-most Justice on the bench. He lead the courts right-wing throughout his tenure and served as a very vocal watchdog for religious rights, civil liberties, free-speech advocates, and intellectual property rights. He also served as the main opposition to the gay rights, drug legalization, and the liberalization of other "victimless crimes"

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Zioneer

Banned
Yes, I finally see it in timeline form. Excellent. Even if it is Orrin Hatch being a Supreme Court Justice. At least Orrin got his life's dream fulfilled.
 
I just want take this post to thank everyone for helping Dr. Gonzo and I reach 20K views. Watch out for the next few updates, I guarantee 1984 will be a fun year for many.
 

CaptainRex

Banned
Amazing how...

-LBJ wins an even greater electoral victory in 1964
-Goldwater, founder of modern conservative movement, wins no states
-HHH wins in 1968 and 1972, 16 years if liberal democrats
-Robert Kennedy still alive
-Reagan losing his governorship

And yet this is still a far-right wank!
 
Amazing how...

-LBJ wins an even greater electoral victory in 1964
-Goldwater, founder of modern conservative movement, wins no states
-HHH wins in 1968 and 1972, 16 years if liberal democrats
-Robert Kennedy still alive
-Reagan losing his governorship

And yet this is still a far-right wank!

Bits of it are on the far end of plausibility, but the bits on Reagan and RFK were well thought out exercises in iconoclasm, and this story is just soooooo damn entertaining for us political junkies. And a conservative wank that doesn't go full on dystopian or hero worship is a rare gem at AH.com in my experience.
 
Amazing how...

-LBJ wins an even greater electoral victory in 1964
-Goldwater, founder of modern conservative movement, wins no states
-HHH wins in 1968 and 1972, 16 years if liberal democrats
-Robert Kennedy still alive
-Reagan losing his governorship

And yet this is still a far-right wank!

Well, Goldwater was more of a libertarian than a conservative as he was for civil rights and against Christian fundamentalism, so he wasn't really the founder of modern conservatism. That honour goes to Reagan. And even though there were sixteen years of ultra-liberal Democrats and other leftist strengthenings, ultimately in any timeline with a WWII that goes as IOTL, the nation will become more right-wing as the baby boomer generation ages. In addition, a core American ideal is of entrepreneurship and risk-taking, and this means that taxes must be low so that risk-takers have an incentive to take those risks, so therefore conservative economics will remain a dominant force in the US.

But the right does seem somewhat wanked, with the convenient death of Macbride so Roy Cohn comes to power.

However, the rise of the NCP does make sense, as it seems to be spurred by movements similar to the right-wing movements that spurred the American Independent Party and the peak of the party seems to be butterflied away and the Southern right will inevitably emerge in any TL with such a late TL.
 
Define "fun".

Nope!
Not yet at least

He's English, and not a natural born citizen.

Unless Amendment 28 is the Equal Opportunity to Govern Amendment...which is a plot development I will neither confirm nor deny at this point in time. *awkward cough*

Amazing how...

-LBJ wins an even greater electoral victory in 1964
-Goldwater, founder of modern conservative movement, wins no states
-HHH wins in 1968 and 1972, 16 years of liberal democrats
-Robert Kennedy still alive
-Reagan losing his governorship

And yet this is still a far-right wank!

Don't forget passing the ERA, making a Jewish woman the NYC mayor, and making a Black man the Governor of Mississippi, in the 80's!

Personally I think the standards of "far-right wank" are far too low. So what if we made a closeted, possible sociopathic Jew our President, so what if one of the Buckley's becomes Mayor of New York City for 8 years, and so what we almost completely banned abortion in the United States via judicial fiat? That's not too bad is it? Is it?

Bits of it are on the far end of plausibility, but the bits on Reagan and RFK were well thought out exercises in iconoclasm, and this story is just soooooo damn entertaining for us political junkies. And a conservative wank that doesn't go full on dystopian or hero worship is a rare gem at AH.com in my experience.

To me, going too far in one direction (utopian or dystopian) makes for boring reading. Good stories are somewhere in the middle, comparable but also alien. Similar but also terrifyingly different. Different good and bad things that make you question which is better, our world or theirs.

Well, Goldwater was more of a libertarian than a conservative as he was for civil rights and against Christian fundamentalism, so he wasn't really the founder of modern conservatism. That honour goes to Reagan. And even though there were sixteen years of ultra-liberal Democrats and other leftist strengthenings, ultimately in any timeline with a WWII that goes as IOTL, the nation will become more right-wing as the baby boomer generation ages. In addition, a core American ideal is of entrepreneurship and risk-taking, and this means that taxes must be low so that risk-takers have an incentive to take those risks, so therefore conservative economics will remain a dominant force in the US.

But the right does seem somewhat wanked, with the convenient death of Macbride so Roy Cohn comes to power.

However, the rise of the NCP does make sense, as it seems to be spurred by movements similar to the right-wing movements that spurred the American Independent Party and the peak of the party seems to be butterflied away and the Southern right will inevitably emerge in any TL with such a late TL.

Bit of a Whig historiography in that first paragraph there. But that's a discussion for another time and place.

Technically MacBride didn't die, but was too crippled in the Manson attack to (in his opinion) carry out his duties as President. Beside's, the Curse of Tecumseh was bound to get him one way or another. That's totally something that needed to happen and would be ASB if it didn't.
 

CaptainRex

Banned
I take back what I said, this is a liberal wank. Short term looks bad, but the democrats are doing great in local elections and breaking limits like the ERA.

Sooner or later they will take back the White House
 
I take back what I said, this is a liberal wank. Short term looks bad, but the democrats are doing great in local elections and breaking limits like the ERA.

Sooner or later they will take back the White House

Why is this story automatically either a right-wing wank or a left-wing wank? Why can't it just be an interesting story with a different political development from OTL?
 
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