Ottoman collapse 1808: what new states are created?

[Fatt Shea]

Lets say the Ottomans collapse due to a dynasty extinction of the house of Osman in the chaos of 1808 with all the assasinations leading to Mahmud II being killed, leaving no surviving successor which leads to a collapse of central authority.

If this happened what new states would be created or expanded?

How would the Turks reorganise themselves and who would rule them?
In the Balkans you had independant Serbia and Danubian principalities and you had regional Ayans who had large amounts of power.
You had strong regional governors like the pashaliks of Albania https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albanian_Pashaliks who could have created their own states in the region, maybe they would try to intergrate into the local culture.
You also had rising nationalism in Greece mainly but to some extent in the rest of the Balkans.
You also had the Armenians and Assyrians who may want their own state.
In Iraq you had the Mamluks in power who could have created their own state.
In Kurdistan you had a bunch of small states, who maybe could have federated for self defence.
In Egypt you had the Alis who would go on to take a lot of land.
In central Arabia you had the first Saudi state who recently captured Mecca.
In Persia who had a long history of wars with the Ottomans, maybe they would try to take the Shia parts of Iraq.
You also had pharaniots who were still strong.
And lastly you had the Russians who were at war with the Ottomans at the time who would seek power in the Balkans.

So with all of these factors what would the map look like in lets say 1820, which of these groups would fall and which would rise?

 

[Grey Wolf]

Ali Pasha of Janina, already operating as pseudo-independent

Ali Pasha of Ioannina - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

There would be a mixed pattern of this, with some others I recall existing but not their names, and nascent Christian states such as Serbia, Montenegro and Ragusa.

The Austrians might not be in the greatest position to advance in 1808, as it's still at war with Napoleon, but OTL there was a rapprochement in 1809 and instead of looking at Russia, Austria might look towards Bosnia, as they had some 6 decades or so before.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[TrickyApe]

The provinces would certainly splinter one way or another, but the really interesting question is what happens in Constantinople. Who would be in a position to take over here and try to reestablish at least a rump center?

 

[Grey Wolf]

The provinces would certainly splinter one way or another, but the really interesting question is what happens in Constantinople. Who would be in a position to take over here and try to reestablish at least a rump center?

By the succession law the Giray are supposed to be inheriting, but whether anyone actually stands up and supports them is another question, and the Russians won't be too thrilled to see the ex-Crimean rulers get a new powerbase.

Mehmed Ali of Egypt might make a power play, but this might be too early in his rule for him to properly get it together. Then again, if he can get British support he might be able to manage it.

 

[Fatt Shea]

The provinces would certainly splinter one way or another, but the really interesting question is what happens in Constantinople. Who would be in a position to take over here and try to reestablish at least a rump center?

Maybe janissaries and local officials in alliance with the balkan ayans. Or maybe a reform faction of local officials who agreed with Selim III and see this as an oppurtunity to destroy their opponents. They could both make their own dynasties like Muhhamed Ali did.

By the succession law the Giray are supposed to be inheriting, but whether anyone actually stands up and supports them is another question, and the Russians won't be too thrilled to see the ex-Crimean rulers get a new powerbase.

They have a chance of being used as a puppet by one of the factions, but I think their legitmacy dropped after the execution of Sahin Giray.

 

[Wendell]

The Iraqi mamluks get their state. Ali Pasha gets his, and much of the rest outside of Europe might at least initially come under Egyptian rule. Albania gets interesting, the Serbian Revolution succeeds, and Russia instigates something similar among the Bulgarians.

 

[ramones1986]

Well, what would happen to the Levant?

 

[Tocomocho]

Egypt grabs it.

More than breaking off, I feel it's gonna be a Russian-Egyptian race to Constantinople, actually.

 

[Wendell]

Well, what would happen to the Levant?

Egypt gets it initially, but eventually an independent Syria forms that rules most/all of the Levant.

 

[Fatt Shea]

The Iraqi mamluks get their state. Ali Pasha gets his, and much of the rest outside of Europe might at least initially come under Egyptian rule. Albania gets interesting, the Serbian Revolution succeeds, and Russia instigates something similar among the Bulgarians.

What about Iran? They could take parts of the new Iraq

Well, what would happen to the Levant?

Egypt conquered it OLT. They'd be stronger in this scenario so I think they'd keep it for a long time.

 

[Ogrelord420]

The Kurdish principalities of Eastern Anatolia would break away since they were fairly independent, though they may have to deal with Yazidis, Assyrians, and Armenians rising up against their rule (possibly with Russian backing). Expect a lot of lawlessness and tribal warfare in the region.

In the Balkans I could see the Bosniak Ayans getting nervous about the Serbian Revolution and allowing Austria to annex them in exchange for protection and their old privileges.

 

[jenalysis]

Would Napoleon get involved, or consolidate his gains, concentrate more on Spain? Austria and Russia would be busy, Prussia's no threat.

I do think Nappy might want a King of the Greeks, with a capital of Constantinople ideally. Would the British and French agree on that?

 

[Ogrelord420]

What about Iran? They could take parts of the new Iraq

Iran did invade Afghanistan around this time, even taking Herat in 1816, so with an Ottoman collapse they could look to take Iraq instead.

 

[Wendell]

What about Iran? They could take parts of the new Iraq

Egypt conquered it OLT. They'd be stronger in this scenario so I think they'd keep it for a long time.

Maybe parts of it, sure, but not enough to prevent some form of Iraqi statehood.

 

[Hayatgheibi]

You also had the Armenians and Assyrians who may want their own state.

Nationalism was nonexistent in the Middle East at the time, and both groups were largely minorities in their own homelands anyways.

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

Ali Pasha of Janina, already operating as pseudo-independent

Ali Pasha of Ioannina - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Austrians might not be in the greatest position to advance in 1808, as it's still at war with Napoleon, but OTL there was a rapprochement in 1809 and instead of looking at Russia, Austria might look towards Bosnia, as they had some 6 decades or so before.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

I am of the opinion that the fifth coalition will put on hold because the Austrians wouldn't want the Russians having full control over the Balkans. So they will intervene to obtain control or influence over Serbia, Montenegro and Albania, in exchange for Russia having control over the eastern Balkans and Anatolia

Well, what would happen to the Levant?

Egypt grabs it.

More than breaking off, I feel it's gonna be a Russian-Egyptian race to Constantinople, actually.

I think it is more likely the first Saudi state gets a hold of it, before the Egyptians boot them out after conquering as much of North Africa as they can.

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

I have to ask but is this for a timeline you are planning to make?

 

[Fatt Shea]

Nationalism was nonexistent in the Middle East at the time, and both groups were largely minorities in their own homelands anyways.

True there still was religious based pride, I agree its unlikely though especially for Assyrians since they were quite isolated and disconnected from eachother. Do you hvae a source for the Armenian thing because I haven't heard that before?

I have to ask but is this for a timeline you are planning to make?

I might make one on this but I'm going to do one based on this first: https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...uth-in-the-19th-century.544650/#post-24402404

I think it is more likely the first Saudi state gets a hold of it, before the Egyptians boot them out after conquering as much of North Africa as they can.

A saudi wank scenario would be one of the most interesting outcomes

 

[Gwyndolin]

If the Ottomans collapse independent of any outside power (at least mostly) what ensues would be the rat race of the century. I see the Russians, Austrians, and French having the biggest degree of involvement; The Russians would especially vie for Constantinople and likely work with the Phanariotes to endeavor in the creation of ’Romania‘ although how much territory they could grab outside of the straits and the Peloponnesus is beyond me, like Bulgaria and Serbia are reestablished as client statues but the northern Balkans is a flash point between Russian and Austria-Hungarian influence, the French would later wrest Algeria from Ottoman oversight and had earlier made attempts in Egypt and Syria. Muhammad Ali was already governor of Egypt at this point and had visions of an Egyptian empire conquering Iraq which at this point was under the stewardship of a Mameluke dynasty. The peninsular war was ongoing at this time and Russia had just defeated Sweden. It seems like France and Russia are in a position to exploit this but there’s the whole mess of the Coalition wars going on, although France did win the war of the Fifth Coalition. Wow I forgot what an incredibly messy time of European history this was.

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

If the Ottomans collapse independent of any outside power (at least mostly) what ensues would be the rat race of the century. I see the Russians, Austrians, and French having the biggest degree of involvement; The Russians would especially vie for Constantinople and likely work with the Phanariotes to endeavor in the creation of ’Romania‘ although how much territory they could grab outside of the straits and the Peloponnesus is beyond me, like Bulgaria and Serbia are reestablished as client statues but the northern Balkans is a flash point between Russian and Austria-Hungarian influence, the French would later wrest Algeria from Ottoman oversight and had earlier made attempts in Egypt and Syria. Muhammad Ali was already governor of Egypt at this point and had visions of an Egyptian empire conquering Iraq which at this point was under the stewardship of a Mameluke dynasty. The peninsular war was ongoing at this time and Russia had just defeated Sweden. It seems like France and Russia are in a position to exploit this but there’s the whole mess of the Coalition wars going on, although France did win the war of the Fifth Coalition. Wow I forgot what an incredibly messy time of European history this was.

The British may find themselves facing worse nightmare scenario as they will be facing an Austro-Russian invasion of the Balkans. As they are the only power that is interested in propping up the remains of the Ottoman Empire.
Which could mean the fifth coalition never happens, or it is directed at the British Empire. Which would REALLY throw incentive to embrace Splendid Isolation.