-Project National Glory- Taiwan's reinvasion of the mainland and constructing a feasable timeline

[BigBoy88]

Hello everyone, I'm new to posting here. And I've been developing a timeline that involves a major event, a North-South China divide/continuation of the Chinese Civil war. From what I've got the TL has some significant key-events changed a few years before in the 40s and 50s, that lead to a 1962 continuation of the Chinese civil War with a emboldened Taiwan initiating a fully-fledged Project Guoguang (national glory) across the southern Chinese coast. End results of the war are a status quo peace which creates a North-South divide. Of course there's far, far, faaarr more that I've got planned for this TL, some huge changes to world history due to this with a large change in focus alongside an overall more advanced technological scene as compared to ours, etc...


Still though, despite the scope and ideas I have in mind for that alt-universe I'm still trying to flesh out many minor and important details to make the scenario seem somewhat plausible. Hopefully there's some interesting thoughts and points brought along that I can take inspiration from.


So far though from that scenario, I've got a few main aspects or prerequisites needed for this (most likely realistically unfeasible) North-South China situation to even take place:


1. The US/collective Western powers give far greater support to Chiang and the Nationalists in Taiwan with a more hawkish anti-communist movement in place, maybe something being lead by a possible president MacArthur or another militarist wanting to prevent the continuation of Chinese communism from their experiences in Korea rather than let the Communist Chinese, in their current state continue

2. Communist China under Mao, already weakened by the great leap forward, party conflict and sino-soviet split needs to probably be weaker. Something like a less stronger Soviet Union due to some slight changes in WW2 causing Mao to receive less suppport and taking more time to rout the Nationalists than in irl.

3. Chiang-Kai-Shek needs more support from the local populace on the mainland and needs to be able to recruit more of the mainland population as he attacks further north, possibly in attempt to reach the Yangtze. This may be possible via a change in Chiang's character, being more strategic, less paranoid and having commited to less costly mistakes than irl, perhaps this could also be helped with a pressure for greater performance with US getting involved to the Nationalists' support, as Gar48 mentioned.


Overall, the war would start off quick, with extensive Taiwanese and US supported naval invasions of southern China, with large swathes of territory being taken south, reaching Nanking would be objective number 1 for Chiang considering its status as a Chinese capitol before and Chinag's former position in it during ww2. and the war ending up with a long-term stalemate in the latter half. The USSR would inevitably have to send support to Mao in a play of realpolitik later on, despite their split in diplomacy, but it could be little to late, with the frontlines stabilising at the Yangtze or, to ensure that the Yangtze actually can get developed later on in this split China, as OP mentioned , the warfront instead could stabilise at the Hui and Han tributary-region, as suggested by Gabingston.


Overall, the bloody continuation would end with a ceasefire akin to what happened in the Korean war, with both sides unhappy with the final result of a divided China, however due to the past few decades of constant war and destruction, from the Warlord era to the Sino-Japanese war to the continuation war, it would also be seen as a relief that the war finally ended, having never escalated to Nuclear armageddon and that finally China could rebuild.

What do you all think? What events, people, and changes could or need to happen, that I should include, for an event this large to make sense if you guys have any specific ideas in mind please let me know!

 

[Arnold d.c]

I once wargamed Project Guo-guang in TOAW IV and it is tough. The idea was to raise 730,000 men between the ages of 21 and 35 and land 1/3 of them on D-Day to capture Xiamen, whereby the reinforcements would be delivered by military vessels as well as by civilian boats in anticipation of the expected counterattack on D+5. Heavy casualties were expected, with a forecast of 50,000 casualties of the 270,000 landing force. U.S. support was a necessity, for the ROC staff admitted that there was insufficient naval and/or airlift to support the troops. Moreover, there was an expectation that the PLAAF and PLAN would attempt to interdict the flow of supplies.

The PLA had a strength of about ¬3.6 million. There is sign of qualitative decline from the Korean War, as training time was reduced for ideological training and working in the fields. Within the scenario, which was quite optimistic on the interdiction (the PLAN was non-existent and the PLAAF was mainly focused on army support or randomly bombing the ROC Navy over interdiction), I (the ROC player) was bogged down after capturing only half of Fujian province. Without the introduction of US forces, I would have probably been stuck with only a 1/4 of the province after D+14.

 

[BigBoy88]

I once wargamed Project Guo-guang in TOAW IV and it is tough. The idea was to raise 730,000 men between the ages of 21 and 35 and land 1/3 of them on D-Day to capture Xiamen, whereby the reinforcements would be delivered by military vessels as well as by civilian boats in anticipation of the expected counterattack on D+5. Heavy casualties were expected, with a forecast of 50,000 casualties of the 270,000 landing force. U.S. support was a necessity, for the ROC staff admitted that there was insufficient naval and/or airlift to support the troops. Moreover, there was an expectation that the PLAAF and PLAN would attempt to interdict the flow of supplies.

The PLA had a strength of about ¬3.6 million. There is sign of qualitative decline from the Korean War, as training time was reduced for ideological training and working in the fields. Within the scenario, which was quite optimistic on the interdiction (the PLAN was non-existent and the PLAAF was mainly focused on army support or randomly bombing the ROC Navy over interdiction), I (the ROC player) was bogged down after capturing only half of Fujian province. Without the introduction of US forces, I would have probably been stuck with only a 1/4 of the province after D+14.

Damn, I guess even in the simulation it seems like Taiwan can not stand a chance for invasion on their own. Still though in that game, is there any details regarding the individual command systems, or leaders that existed irl? Would be interesting to take into account. I'm looking into the histories behind some important figures like Chen Cheng, Chiang Ching-Kuo, Sun Li-Jen, Chiang Wei-Kuo, Deng Hua, Chen Geng, Peng Dehuai, etc..., basically, there's a lot of people that were involved in this conflict since the 40s and as far back as the 20s or 30s for others and the point is, is that the decisions of these individuals irl had huge ramifications on the events of war.
So in order to make this scenario plausible, irl significant individuals make alternate choices that would be befitting of their personalities and who they were and in an alt timeline, could've been.

 

[Alex1guy]

I feel like the PRC would need to be monumentally distracted either in a major war or civil conflict. Taiwan I don't feel can realistically muster up what would be needed, maybe the Soviets are fighting a war with the PRC first?

 

[Sekhmet_D]

I feel like the PRC would need to be monumentally distracted either in a major war or civil conflict. Taiwan I don't feel can realistically muster up what would be needed, maybe the Soviets are fighting a war with the PRC first?

Launch the invasion during the Cultural Revolution.

 

[Quintuplicate]

Launch the invasion during the Cultural Revolution.

Even still it couldn't have worked in or after 1970.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

Even still it couldn't have worked in or after 1970.

I guess this now begs the further question as to what a failed invasion would spell for Taiwan.

 

[Arnold d.c]

Damn, I guess even in the simulation it seems like Taiwan can not stand a chance for invasion on their own. Still though in that game, is there any details regarding the individual command systems, or leaders that existed irl? Would be interesting to take into account. I'm looking into the histories behind some important figures like Chen Cheng, Chiang Ching-Kuo, Sun Li-Jen, Chiang Wei-Kuo, Deng Hua, Chen Geng, Peng Dehuai, etc..., basically, there's a lot of people that were involved in this conflict since the 40s and as far back as the 20s or 30s for others and the point is, is that the decisions of these individuals irl had huge ramifications on the events of war.
So in order to make this scenario plausible, irl significant individuals make alternate choices that would be befitting of their personalities and who they were and in an alt timeline, could've been.

Nope, the only thing simulated is the troop strength, quality, logistical lift and that is about it. The game does incorporate events to advantage the ROC to maintain their momentum such as:
- Taking Xiamen, Fuzhou and Shantou will give the ROC additional manpower and supplies through conscription of locals and looting supply depots
- Taking Fuzhou and Shantou will be a blow to PRC logistics as they are major railway terminals
- Taking Fuzhou gives the ROC a temporary boost in morale - allowing for greater shock damage

Still, me and my opponent have never actually achieved "victory" as the ROC without U.S. support - note that the game's victory condition is that the player has managed a sizable foothold in Fujian province by D+48 (so capturing half the province counts as a win). Most non-intervention scenarios end in stalemate with the ROC tenuously holding onto one of the major ports sufficiently dug in to repel an attack but unable to press the offensive as PRC reserves stream in. We attempted multiple strategies such as:
- ROC lands on multiple beaches to take all 3 cities - tends to end in disaster as the PRC will defeat the ROC in detail
- ROC concentrates on Xiamen - the ROC will generally capture the city along with neighboring Zhangzhou, but the ROC will be hemmed in from all sides not long after - stalemate without U.S. support is the most common result. Also the most likely invasion path IOTL.
- Early PRC counterattack - the PRC player is mandated to throw a counterattack at the beaches ASAP. While this sounds bad for the ROC, the PRC player is forced to rush towards the teeth of the ROCN and ROC artillery guns. The best ROC game I have seen saw the PRC forces badly messed up such that ROC mechanized forces were able to cut them up and encircle them. Still, PRC reinforcements arrived and the game ended in stalemate, albeit farther forward than usual. We did debate if this was realistic or not. IIRC, Chinese military strategy was to "draw them deep" such that the invaders would be stretched out and worn out by guerrilla warfare and regular soldiers. But this might have been meant for US and Soviet invasion scenarios.

 

[Quintuplicate]

I guess this now begs the further question as to what a failed invasion would spell for Taiwan.

It's not like defeating an invasion would magically give the PRC the equipment to launch a successful conventional counter-invasion.

 

[BigBoy88]

It's not like defeating an invasion would magically give the PRC the equipment to launch a successful conventional counter-invasion.

Most likely, especially considering that Communist China irl took lots of losses in attempting and invading coastal KMT-held islands like Dongding, and failed when trying to take over these coastal islands that are to this day still under the Republic of China. At the end of the day, even if Chiang initiated and failed in his Guoguang initiative, and lost the neighbouring islands like the current Kinmen County, akin to the losses of Tachen and Yijiangshan islands in the first Taiwan straits crisis, in that worst case scenario, it is still likely that the heavily-fortified island of Taiwan including those islands further out like Penghu, or even Taiping Island would still remain unconquerable for the Communist Chinese forces. 1. They're too far out, something the underdeveloped Communist Chinese navy can't support, and 2. The US or western powers, even irl, still did and would've most likely supplied and kept Taiwan going for defense purposes at the very least. (Also US nukes being stationed on the island of Taiwan was a deterrent for anyone, similarly to what the USSR tried to do to the US with Cuba)

 

[Seandineen]

Damn, I guess even in the simulation it seems like Taiwan can not stand a chance for invasion on their own. Still though in that game, is there any details regarding the individual command systems, or leaders that existed irl? Would be interesting to take into account. I'm looking into the histories behind some important figures like Chen Cheng, Chiang Ching-Kuo, Sun Li-Jen, Chiang Wei-Kuo, Deng Hua, Chen Geng, Peng Dehuai, etc..., basically, there's a lot of people that were involved in this conflict since the 40s and as far back as the 20s or 30s for others and the point is, is that the decisions of these individuals irl had huge ramifications on the events of war.
So in order to make this scenario plausible, irl significant individuals make alternate choices that would be befitting of their personalities and who they were and in an alt timeline, could've been.

Good Work. You might also want to look at Robert Marx's counterrevolution in China, He details the brilliant propagandist Weng Sheng, who came up with 22 programs to woo mainland defectors. The one I knew best, Literarly offered free desserts, My podcast things you don't know 4275, details, ice cream as national salvation. Sheng lived to be 107, so he would have kicked but during the Cold War.

 

[BigBoy88]

Nope, the only thing simulated is the troop strength, quality, logistical lift and that is about it. The game does incorporate events to advantage the ROC to maintain their momentum such as:
- Taking Xiamen, Fuzhou and Shantou will give the ROC additional manpower and supplies through conscription of locals and looting supply depots
- Taking Fuzhou and Shantou will be a blow to PRC logistics as they are major railway terminals
- Taking Fuzhou gives the ROC a temporary boost in morale - allowing for greater shock damage

Still, me and my opponent have never actually achieved "victory" as the ROC without U.S. support - note that the game's victory condition is that the player has managed a sizable foothold in Fujian province by D+48 (so capturing half the province counts as a win). Most non-intervention scenarios end in stalemate with the ROC tenuously holding onto one of the major ports sufficiently dug in to repel an attack but unable to press the offensive as PRC reserves stream in. We attempted multiple strategies such as:
- ROC lands on multiple beaches to take all 3 cities - tends to end in disaster as the PRC will defeat the ROC in detail
- ROC concentrates on Xiamen - the ROC will generally capture the city along with neighboring Zhangzhou, but the ROC will be hemmed in from all sides not long after - stalemate without U.S. support is the most common result. Also the most likely invasion path IOTL.
- Early PRC counterattack - the PRC player is mandated to throw a counterattack at the beaches ASAP. While this sounds bad for the ROC, the PRC player is forced to rush towards the teeth of the ROCN and ROC artillery guns. The best ROC game I have seen saw the PRC forces badly messed up such that ROC mechanized forces were able to cut them up and encircle them. Still, PRC reinforcements arrived and the game ended in stalemate, albeit farther forward than usual. We did debate if this was realistic or not. IIRC, Chinese military strategy was to "draw them deep" such that the invaders would be stretched out and worn out by guerrilla warfare and regular soldiers. But this might have been meant for US and Soviet invasion scenarios.

Aye, I see... some things you mentioned like Fuzhou and Shantou being transport hubs would be very good to keep in mind. Also despite your runs in game of trying to take the 3 main cities all at once, and it failing as a strategy, I think that for this scenario, a probable large scale invasion of major coastal cities of Xiamen and Fuzhou in Fujian Province and Shantou on the eastern portion of Guangdong would probably be a requirement in the initial large-scale invasion of the project, as most-likely envisioned by Chiang himself. These important cities to capture for the starting invasion, would require perhaps 250'000-300'000 troops to best take and then keep theses territories under control. I think the size of the military for Taiwan would be able to support this requirement considering the 1.6-2 million refugees that fled to the island were mostly soldiers and their families, alongside the increased conscription that was brought along irl. Something like 400'000-600'000 additional men, if the initial invasion secures that south-eastern coast, could then be shipped off to the mainland via US naval and aerial support. Tbh, I don't really know the specific capacity of men that were in service during Taiwan martial law as it seems hard to find stats and any specific numbers on these matters, a lot of it seemed to have been kept secret by Chiang's government & the US forces on Taiwan too, although if any actual data does exist of this stuff, please let me know! Also the recruiting of the local populations could also begin as the KMT would initiate military rule in their zones of control.

Also on your point about China's official _Draw them deep_ strategy, I think this may have come from the influence of pre _Sino-Soviet split_ Soviet military doctrine that was used heavily in WW2 and also by Mao when he fought the Japanese in WW2. In 1962 though, I imagine that based on China's irl performance in India in that year and the Kinmen islands recently during the second straits crisis, that China would try to actually respond very quickly to a Taiwan invasion at first with the human-numerical superiority tactics and rushing to the enemy as they did in those other areas mentioned.
Maybe later on though for this scenario, as the KMT forces maintain the initiative in the start of thecampaign, then the Communist forces could engage in _Draw them Deep_ strategy, leading to that Korean-war stalemate that I was thinking of.

The US though with an alternate extensive aerial support for the KMT would have to grind down the Communists from air as well as supply and arm these large numbers of men that would be sent to fight on behalf of the KMT side. The resemblance to this alt-Chinese civil war in many ways to US involvement in the irl Vietnam War would be very... striking to say the least, although maybe not as overt as Vietnam was...

Also, speaking of extensive naval invasions, I was wondering whether or not a simultaneous invasion of Wenzhou or Taizhou in Zhejiang province would be good to include for this initial invasion plan for Guoguang, but considering the loss of the islands of Dachen and Yijiangshan island irl from the first straits crisis, and it's higher priority as a wealthier region for the PRA at the time, and a possible overextension of an already stretched KMT military, I think I'll leave an initial invasion for Zhejiang out, keeping most of the Phase 1 stuff for the south. What do you all think?

 

[BigBoy88]

Good Work. You might also want to look at Robert Marx's counterrevolution in China, He details the brilliant propagandist Weng Sheng, who came up with 22 programs to woo mainland defectors. The one I knew best, Literarly offered free desserts, My podcast things you don't know 4275, details, ice cream as national salvation. Sheng lived to be 107, so he would have kicked but during the Cold War.

Thanks! Also Interesting point about the propoganda, it was afterall highly important in keeping up the morale of a recently routed army and keeping people in support of the Nationalist cause. I'll look more into Wang Sheng, he seems to have been a important National Revolutionary Army official during this time, so he'll probably be included in the finished TL and I just looked up the book, is it this one here?: https://www.routledge.com/Counterre...and-the-Kuomintang/Marks/p/book/9780714642383

Also, considering that so much of the Guoguang project was based on recruiting mainlanders and gaining their support against Communism, propaganda and incentives would've been top priority in the operation. If you can, could you link me that podcast, sounds real good!

 

[Seandineen]

yes it was that book. Will send the link asap

 

[Seandineen]

Thanks! Also Interesting point about the propoganda, it was afterall highly important in keeping up the morale of a recently routed army and keeping people in support of the Nationalist cause. I'll look more into Wang Sheng, he seems to have been a important National Revolutionary Army official during this time, so he'll probably be included in the finished TL and I just looked up the book, is it this one here?: https://www.routledge.com/Counterre...and-the-Kuomintang/Marks/p/book/9780714642383

Also, considering that so much of the Guoguang project was based on recruiting mainlanders and gaining their support against Communism, propaganda and incentives would've been top priority in the operation. If you can, could you link me that podcast, sounds real good!

 

[Seandineen]

i'd greatly appreciate a comment

 

[Arnold d.c]

These important cities to capture for the starting invasion, would require perhaps 250'000-300'000 troops to best take and then keep theses territories under control. I think the size of the military for Taiwan would be able to support this requirement considering the 1.6-2 million refugees that fled to the island were mostly soldiers and their families, alongside the increased conscription that was brought along irl. Something like 400'000-600'000 additional men, if the initial invasion secures that south-eastern coast, could then be shipped off to the mainland via US naval and aerial support. Tbh, I don't really know the specific capacity of men that were in service during Taiwan martial law as it seems hard to find stats and any specific numbers on these matters, a lot of it seemed to have been kept secret by Chiang's government & the US forces on Taiwan too, although if any actual data does exist of this stuff, please let me know!

Well, I finally found a more definitive warplan for Project Guoguang here - Chapter 9. It is very much akin the Xiamen strategy in action. One source I had seen suggests that 730,000 is the maximum number of mobilized that can be brought to shore for the scenario. Remember that there is a limit to how much of a population that can be mobilized - even in a total war scenario like WW2, Germany, UK and the USA mobilized "just" 10.9%, 8.2% and 7.8% of their population. Given the population of Taiwan being close to 11 million, that gives a range of 850,000-1.2 million being full mobilization. One thing that I was very sceptical of in the scenario was the conscription of the locals and the lack of communist insurgents in captured territory. IIRC the PRC was still widely supported in this time period (the game assumes the war takes place in 1962).

The PRC it seems sought to draw them into the Hinterlands of Fujian - which in game was a major obstacle for the ROC and then perhaps cut them off from escape by recapturing Xiamen. Admittedly, this is easier said than done. The ROC player is unlikely to leave their flanks exposed and the rough terrain would itself be a detriment for PRC counterattacking forces as much as it is for the ROC attack. Another book (page 112) states that the PRC had mobilized 400,000 soldiers and 1,000 planes to resist the landings. I will try posting the order of battle for the ROC & PRC, but it should be noted that the PRC's initial force is generally light infantry (as it is more tropical) whereas reinforcements from the northern regions are more mechanized in nature.

Also, speaking of extensive naval invasions, I was wondering whether or not a simultaneous invasion of Wenzhou or Taizhou in Zhejiang province would be good to include for this initial invasion plan for Guoguang, but considering the loss of the islands of Dachen and Yijiangshan island irl from the first straits crisis, and it's higher priority as a wealthier region for the PRA at the time, and a possible overextension of an already stretched KMT military, I think I'll leave an initial invasion for Zhejiang out, keeping most of the Phase 1 stuff for the south. What do you all think?

I think it would be a poor strategy IMO. Sealift and airlift is not free, nor is manpower. What is more likely to happen is that the ROC forms small enclaves before being completely smashed just as the three landing solution did.

 

[Seandineen]

The Generalismo seemed to think some PRC officials could be turned. He wrote an appeal called Chang Kaishek talks to the nation. I wonder if Lin Biao had been an agent of the KMT and lived what sort of impact that would have had.

 

[BigBoy88]

Well, I finally found a more definitive warplan for Project Guoguang here - Chapter 9. It is very much akin the Xiamen strategy in action. One source I had seen suggests that 730,000 is the maximum number of mobilized that can be brought to shore for the scenario. Remember that there is a limit to how much of a population that can be mobilized - even in a total war scenario like WW2, Germany, UK and the USA mobilized "just" 10.9%, 8.2% and 7.8% of their population. Given the population of Taiwan being close to 11 million, that gives a range of 850,000-1.2 million being full mobilization. One thing that I was very sceptical of in the scenario was the conscription of the locals and the lack of communist insurgents in captured territory. IIRC the PRC was still widely supported in this time period (the game assumes the war takes place in 1962).

Interesting, I must have a look through that book, I'm gonna try and see if there's a free pdf of it online lol, (I am pretty broke tbh). And yes communist insurgents/partisan activity will be inevitable, however, by changing a few conditions of the world before that, I'm hoping that particularly for south China, in the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, Guangxi, Yunnan and Sichuan, that there would be lowered support for the CCP due to Mao and the CCP being more incompetent in the early 60s compared to IOTL. For example where by mid-early 1961 in the real world, the Great Leap Forward had officially been declared to have ended, instead in Alternate timeline, Mao and his more radicalized inner circle (future Gang of 4 irl), continue the program for an extra few months, maybe targeting in particular, the rice-producing regions of those southern provinces as I mentioned earlier, this is just what I'm thinking however, so the finished TL might have different alterations to give the locals more of a reason to see the KMT as liberators. Also after looking into Wang Sheng's propaganda campaigns from the book that Seandineen mentioned, I'm now thinking that with US support, particularly in terms of tech and consumer goods for the KMT army, that the local malnutritioned people of China would be given more incentives. Chiang himself would also have to keep charismatic and successful commanders around and in power, like The Eastern Rommel, Sun Li-Jen.

The PRC it seems sought to draw them into the Hinterlands of Fujian - which in game was a major obstacle for the ROC and then perhaps cut them off from escape by recapturing Xiamen. Admittedly, this is easier said than done. The ROC player is unlikely to leave their flanks exposed and the rough terrain would itself be a detriment for PRC counterattacking forces as much as it is for the ROC attack. Another book (page 112) states that the PRC had mobilized 400,000 soldiers and 1,000 planes to resist the landings. I will try posting the order of battle for the ROC & PRC, but it should be noted that the PRC's initial force is generally light infantry (as it is more tropical) whereas reinforcements from the northern regions are more mechanized in nature.


I think it would be a poor strategy IMO. Sealift and airlift is not free, nor is manpower. What is more likely to happen is that the ROC forms small enclaves before being completely smashed just as the three landing solution did.

Aye, I see, initial invasion when it succeeds for the KMT forces could then cause a "Draw them Deep" strategy focus for the PRC forces, causing the jungles and forests of the south to be a problem, but this could have been mitigated by usage of mechanised units as well as US support and more local people's support for the KMT. And yeah, you're probably right with the landing plans, focusing on Xiamen with the original initial landing forces of 250'000-300'000, will be the best chances for routing the PRC defences as they get overwhelmed by the concentrated KMT force, a bit like how the D-Day landings focused on Normandy, which overwhelmed the German defences, and established a beachhead for further supply and offence.
I was thinking that a 3 coastal city invasion in Guangdong and Fujian as Chiang had imagined for the first phase would spread out the PRC forces in favour of the KMT forces, but yeah, overall, it would'nt make sense, so I'll stick with the Xiamen strategy for Phase 1, with a subsequent attack on the nearby coastal areas as KMT forces move about.

 

[BigBoy88]

I feel like the PRC would need to be monumentally distracted either in a major war or civil conflict. Taiwan I don't feel can realistically muster up what would be needed, maybe the Soviets are fighting a war with the PRC first?

Good ideas, however, I'm going to try and lower the PRC's ability to fight via more internally focused problems, like party infighting and a lack of Soviet support, and an earlier manchurian/mongolian border conflict perhaps, etc.. Though I'm also thinking that around the time of the Sino-Indian border conflict in October of 1962, wherein the PRC is focused on India, this could be a good date for a Taiwan invasion of the mainland.