Protectionist USA

[Beck Reilly]

I was recently in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. As most of you probably know, Bethlehem was once home to the Bethlehem Steel Corporation, at one time one of the largest producers of steel in the USA. Now, in Bethlehem, the factory remains, running for nearly three miles along the river, a ghost of decrepit buildings and broken windows.

Seeing the empty parking lots, rusting buildings, and a clock stopped at the time the factory stopped nearly brought a tear to my eye. So many American industrial jobs lost to foreign nations.....

Anyways, with a POD since 1980, find a way to make the US an avid protectionist. That means: leave the free trade agreements, raise tariffs, for companies that decide to move jobs overseas: raise enormous taxes against them, etc.....

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

Wouldn't that be more harmful than helpful? Yes, the Rust Belt suffers, but in the whole the USA benefits more from free trade than protecionism, mainly because of the sheer size of its economy.

 

[Beck Reilly]

Wouldn't that be more harmful than helpful? Yes, the Rust Belt suffers, but in the whole the USA benefits more from free trade than protecionism, mainly because of the sheer size of its economy.

I disagree, but that's not the point of this thread....

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

Agreed, that's not the point of the thread.

How close were Carter and Mondale to the trade unions' vote? There may be something there.

 

[Tom_B]

President John Connally

is what I think you have in mind. I think you will probably need a POD at least a few years earlier to get that. It would also help if the Left (both Old and New) becomes more firmly antiglobalist earlier. One of their favorite 1970's gurus, EF Schumacher has that as key part of his package but it is only in the last decade or so that his cultists have emphasized that aspect of his philosophy.

 

[Faeelin]

I disagree, but that's not the point of this thread....

Isn't it? How can we plausibly speculate on the effects of protectionism if we can't discuss whether it's helped or hurt America?

 

[Beck Reilly]

Isn't it? How can we plausibly speculate on the effects of protectionism if we can't discuss whether it's helped or hurt America?

Because, I believe it will invariably turn into a flame war. In fact, I was banned for a week over an argument about whether outsourcing is good or bad, an argument which I believe will develop out of a discussion on protectionism.

Thus, I am hoping that we can discuss plausible events to make the US more protectionist, rather than a discussion on whether those events would be good or bad. At least, I'd prefer to find a way to make the US more protectionist, before we discuss the resulting effects of such a change...

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Because, I believe it will invariably turn into a flame war. In fact, I was banned for a week over an argument about whether outsourcing is good or bad, an argument which I believe will develop out of a discussion on protectionism.

Thus, I am hoping that we can discuss plausible events to make the US more protectionist, rather than a discussion on whether those events would be good or bad. At least, I'd prefer to find a way to make the US more protectionist, before we discuss the resulting effects of such a change...

How on earth did you get banned due to a discussion about outsourcing? Did you mention Armenians or something?

 

[Beck Reilly]

How on earth did you get banned due to a discussion about outsourcing? Did you mention Armenians or something?

I believe I made some disparaging comments about the Indian employees who work on the Dell support staff.

 

[Grey Wolf]

I believe I made some disparaging comments about the Indian employees who work on the Dell support staff.

I think it was due to the fact that you were being racist. Its easy to have this discussion without saying you don't give a damn for Indians or whatever, and that they aren't worth the same as Americans...

The problem with out-sourcing lies not in where the jobs go, but where they come from. To India or China etc, the main problem with the phenomenon is that these jobs with their relatively high wages undermine ultra conservative traditional values which in its evolutionary way can hardly be a bad thing.

But with regard to where the jobs come from, the fault lies in globalisation and multinational companies, not in any fair trade agreements. I used to work for a major British-owned bank with a global presence. It made a billion pounds profit in one year, but decided over the last 12 months to cut a total of 7000 jobs, a whole load of which it has shipped to call centres in China or India. It has not done this because it cannot afford to run these services in the UK, or because the quality is better in Asia, but simply because it is a greedy load of capitalists who see the opportunity to make even more money, and have the opportunity to do so

Grey Wolf

 

[Beck Reilly]

I think it was due to the fact that you were being racist. Its easy to have this discussion without saying you don't give a damn for Indians or whatever, and that they aren't worth the same as Americans...

I didn't exactly mean it that way. I meant that I felt it was more important for Americans to have jobs with American companies than for a foreigner of any type to have that job.

But, as I said, I really would like to avoid getting into this whole matter. I want a POD or a timeline or an essay or something of that type, not a political or a moral argument...

 

[Grey Wolf]

I didn't exactly mean it that way. I meant that I felt it was more important for Americans to have jobs with American companies than for a foreigner of any type to have that job.

But, as I said, I really would like to avoid getting into this whole matter. I want a POD or a timeline or an essay or something of that type, not a political or a moral argument...

Sure, I was saying how it came across

Regarding a timeline etc, I feel it more important to focus on keeping the major corporations NATIONAL rather than multi-national. Once they become multi-national they will use any tool to cut costs even whilst making massive profits

It may require a POD that gets rid of the IMF or World Bank in their purely capitalist guise. Not free market open economies are God, because it bites back in the end. But some sort of UN social fund

Just random ideas

Grey Wolf

 

[Torqumada]

Isn't it? How can we plausibly speculate on the effects of protectionism if we can't discuss whether it's helped or hurt America?

Protectionism doesn't seem to have doen the Japanese economy too much harm. They have no problem coming to the US, building plants here to make their products to sell to us using their own management style, but when US companies try to set up factories in Japan that build their products to sell to the Japanese public with a US management style, they can't because of Japanese protectionism. Think of it this way: How many Camry's are made and sold in the US? Lots. How many Mustang's and Taureses are made in Japan and sold there. None. In the past foreign companies have used US laws and Free Trade treaties to their benefit, while putting stumbling blocks in the way of US companies wanting to compete with them in their own country. For Free Trade to be Free, the playing field has to start equal and then market pressures can decide from there.

Torqumada

 

[DuQuense]

1963 -Nov -Dallas- As Kennedy's motorcade turns the corner into Daly Plaza, Oswald hears some one preparing to enter. As such He rushes his shot , & Kennedy receivers a Flesh wound in his Shoulder.

1964-Nov-Elections Day- Dispite growing problems in Vietnam Kennedy/Johnson easyly beats the Rockfeller/Goldwater ticket.

1967- Following operation Cyclone in which the US drops more bombs than in WW2, A devistated N Veitnam agrees to withdraw from S Vietnam.

1968- following a heated primary Goldwater/Regan defeats Nixon/Ford, and goes on to defeat Humpries/Anderson.

1971- Several high visibility plant closings , across the Rust Belt States lead to Goldwater sponsoring the Defense Industries Protection Bill. [DIPA]

1972- G/R reelected

1973- Israil/Eygpt War. Oil Crisis. The big Three Auto Makers are slow to Adept.

1975- The rapid growth in imported small cars continue, Chyrsler & American Moters, go Bankrupt.

1976- The remaining big Two Auto makers pressure Goldwater & Congress to include Autos under the DIPA. The '76 election Hinges on the Republicans Protecting Business vs the Democrats pushing a Small is Beautiful
Kennedy/Carter wins

 

[Faeelin]

Protectionism doesn't seem to have doen the Japanese economy too much harm. They have no problem coming to the US, building plants here to make their products to sell to us using their own management style, but when US companies try to set up factories in Japan that build their products to sell to the Japanese public with a US management style, they can't because of Japanese protectionism. Think of it this way: How many Camry's are made and sold in the US? Lots. How many Mustang's and Taureses are in Japan and sold there. None. In the past foreign companies have used US laws and Free Trade treaties to their benefit, while putting stumbling blocks in the way of US companies wanting to compete with them in their own country. For Free Trade to be Free, the playing field has to start equal and then market pressures can decide from there.

In my TL, the Japanese are in a chronic recession and have been since the early 90's.

Yours may differ, including, but not limited to, a confederate states of america, imperial france, and a world where Japan was a successful nation stretching from Hawaii to Malaysia.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Look at Nissan overstretching themselves and having to agree to a merger with Renault which was in effect a take-over by the French company

Grey Wolf

 

[Coriolanus]

1963 -Nov -Dallas- As Kennedy's motorcade turns the corner into Daly Plaza, Oswald hears some one preparing to enter. As such He rushes his shot , & Kennedy receivers a Flesh wound in his Shoulder.

1964-Nov-Elections Day- Dispite growing problems in Vietnam Kennedy/Johnson easyly beats the Rockfeller/Goldwater ticket.

1967- Following operation Cyclone in which the US drops more bombs than in WW2, A devistated N Veitnam agrees to withdraw from S Vietnam.

1968- following a heated primary Goldwater/Regan defeats Nixon/Ford, and goes on to defeat Humpries/Anderson.

1971- Several high visibility plant closings , across the Rust Belt States lead to Goldwater sponsoring the Defense Industries Protection Bill. [DIPA]

1972- G/R reelected

1973- Israil/Eygpt War. Oil Crisis. The big Three Auto Makers are slow to Adept.

1975- The rapid growth in imported small cars continue, Chyrsler & American Moters, go Bankrupt.

1976- The remaining big Two Auto makers pressure Goldwater & Congress to include Autos under the DIPA. The '76 election Hinges on the Republicans Protecting Business vs the Democrats pushing a Small is Beautiful
Kennedy/Carter wins

Good TL. But why did the Republicans not nominate Goldwater in '64? Did they feel they had more of a chance against Kennedy than they did against Johnson OTL?

 

[Torqumada]

In my TL, the Japanese are in a chronic recession and have been since the early 90's.

Yours may differ, including, but not limited to, a confederate states of america, imperial france, and a world where Japan was a successful nation stretching from Hawaii to Malaysia.

Ummm mine wasn't a timeline. I was making a statement that the Japanese and other nations use our Free Trade policies against us while using protectionism at home to keep out American companies and goods. That is reality, not alternate history.

Torqumada

 

[Faeelin]

Ummm mine wasn't a timeline. I was making a statement that the Japanese and other nations use our Free Trade policies against us while using protectionism at home to keep out American companies and goods. That is reality, not alternate history.

Torqumada

And mine was sarcasm. Japan is in a recession, and has been for a bit more than a decade now. America has continued expanding it's economy at a respectable rate.

You weren't aware of this?

 

[Torqumada]

And mine was sarcasm. Japan is in a recession, and has been for a bit more than a decade now. America has continued expanding it's economy at a respectable rate.

You weren't aware of this?

I am quite aware of it. However, the 3 main shools of Economic theory (Keynesian, Monetrariest and Austrian) seem to be at odds as to what the real reason is for the recession is. I have never taken a course in economics, but based on this article: http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1099, none of the 3 theories seem to be blaming Japanese Protectionism as the cause of the Japanese recession. If I am reading it right, its blaming bad monetary policy on the part of the Japanese central bank. If there is someone better versed in economics that I am, say a shift Manager at Mcdonalds, please tell me if I am reading that article wrong. If Japanese protectionism isn't the cause of their recession and it helped their economy become one of the strongest in the world, then is protectionism really a bad thing? Would it be a bad thing for the US?

Torqumada