Reform Party McCain in 2000

[Deleted member 109224]

https://nypost.com/2000/03/06/mccain-rules-out-reform-party-bid/

Polling showed that had McCain run Reform Party in 2000, he'd have started at 24% versus Gore's 34% and Bush's 35%.

McCain ruled it out in March of 2000, but Bush's campaign was incredibly dirty and McCain advisers were a bit more open to the idea when pressed.

What if McCain opted to run Reform?

Angust King would be a strong running mate. Other prospects might be Lowell Weicker or Dick Lamm. I'd say Lieberman too, but he had reelection that year so it'd be tough.

 

[X_X]

That’s some strong polling for a third party (the kind of thing Ralph Nader can only dream of). Of course, it’s been well documented that third parties poll better than the end results.

Now then Reform was considered a major party at the time, because Perot got 8.4% of the vote in 1996. So, McCain would, in addition to being a popular and well-known sitting senator, have received federal funds by the government for the campaign, putting him at advantage to other third parties.

As for who would make a good running mate, Governor King sounds the best bet to me. Maine after all was the Reform Party’s best state, and him on the ticket would be at least enough to put it in play. If not him, then McCain could be stuck with Ventura. Or Trump. Ouch.

Speaking of which, he’d have to first survive the dreaded primaries. What a televised debate that would be: John Hagelin, Pat Buchanan, John McCain, and Donald Trump! Jon Stewart, eat your heart out.

I think for a number of factors McCain would do about the same or better than Perot. Unlike in 96, he probably gets into the debates, if only for being an established politician. He would at least turn Maine and New Hampshire into three-way competitive states (voters elsewhere too stubborn and partisan in their ways), and if lucky enough wins them both.

 

[JDGiant]

Ventura is the obvious choice, but there would be a good chance of the campaign fading out, as happened to Wallace in 1968, Anderson in 1980, Perot in 1992 (although that was to a significant extent his own fault due to dropping out) and to a lesser extent Nader in 2000.

 

[Cook]

What if McCain opted to run Reform?

Gore would have been sworn in as the 43rd president of the United States and McCain would be remembered forever as a spoiler who split the conservative vote and gave the Democrats the White House for a further four years.

 

[V-J]

Gore would have been sworn in as the 43rd president of the United States and McCain would be remembered forever as a spoiler who split the conservative vote and gave the Democrats the White House for a further four years.

Given a lot of McCain's support in the primaries came from independents and Democrats in open primary contests, I'm doubtful a third party McCain's effect is that one-way. You're aware of how much crossover appeal he had in 2000, right? That he was the media's candidate? That Rolling Stone was backing him?

He re-ignites the 1992 Perot vote, more likely. Worst case scenario for Gore is that his support is imbalanced towards one side, a supercharged Nader.

But the risk of a mythology that you describe, for either side, is why someone seriously presidentiable like McCain is not going to dabble in this sort of weirdness.

 

[Deleted member 109224]

Given a lot of McCain's support in the primaries came from independents and Democrats in open primary contests, I'm doubtful a third party McCain's effect is that one-way. You're aware of how much crossover appeal he had in 2000, right? That he was the media's candidate? That Rolling Stone was backing him?

He re-ignites the 1992 Perot vote, more likely. Worst case scenario for Gore is that his support is imbalanced towards one side, a supercharged Nader.

But the risk of a mythology that you describe, for either side, is why someone seriously presidentiable like McCain is not going to dabble in this sort of weirdness.

Possibly. However, the Bush team really went low against him in South Carolina so it is possible he might just not care about spoiling Bush. Plus if McCain is starting at 24% and has 12.6 million in federal campaign money (about 19 million in 2018 USD, which Reform was entitled to after Perot's 1996 bid) he'd be on the right foot in his bid.

 

[Amadeus]

Gore would have been sworn in as the 43rd president of the United States and McCain would be remembered forever as a spoiler who split the conservative vote and gave the Democrats the White House for a further four years.

The Reform Party took a relatively equal share of votes from Republicans and Democrats. I assume that's behind the polling data posted by the OP. I doubt that McCain would actually get 24% since third party candidates tend to lose support by election day, at best he could do as well as Perot in '92 if he has a lot of grassroots support and does well in the debates. He might pick up a handful of small western and New England states; he has little to no chance of winning. Gore and Bush would probably remain neck and neck in polling and one or the other would be fortunate to crack just 40% of the vote.

 

[David T]

https://nypost.com/2000/03/06/mccain-rules-out-reform-party-bid/

Polling showed that had McCain run Reform Party in 2000, he'd have started at 24% versus Gore's 34% and Bush's 35%.

John Anderson got 24% in a June 1980 Gallup poll. https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...54d-aede-ee9bdcc4befa/?utm_term=.e71d71b7f6e0

In June 1992, Ross Perot had 39 percent compared to 31 percent for Bush and 25 percent for Clinton. https://www.nytimes.com/1992/06/11/...-the-trail-poll-gives-perot-a-clear-lead.html