Republic of China under Chen Cheng

[Phalamus]

(a) Chen Cheng. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chen_Cheng One of the most honest and able of Chiang's generals. Of them all, he would probably be the best choice for President. (True, years later he didn't do so well fighting against the Communists in Manchuria, but the odds were pretty heavily against the Nationalists in that area, anyway.) In 1944, he was to replace He Yingqin as Minister of War. In 1949 he would become Governor of Taiwan, where he was to initiate a successful land reform program. From 1950 to 1954 and again from 1958 to 1963 Chen was Prime Minister of the Republic of China (which of course by that time was limited to Taiwan and some minor islands); from 1954 to 1965 he was vice-president of the republic. By that time, Chiang Kai-shek was determined to make his son Chiang Ching-kuo his successor, and while respecting Chen's abilities was worried that Chen might stand in Ching-kuo's way. But in 1942 of course it was way too early to think of Chiang Ching-kuo as president, and there seems every reason to think that Chen was considered Chiang's most likely successor.

For example, Fenby (p. 309) describes Chen in 1938 as "The man the generalissimo had designated as his successor." https://books.google.com/books?id=PNJOxyP0SqEC&pg=PA309 John Gunther in 1942 in *Inside Asia* (p. 281) wrote:

"General Chen Cheng is, I have mentioned, the leader of the Whampoa Officers group in the Kuomintang. He is also former military commander of the Hankow area, minister of political training in the National Military Council, and an ex-vice-minister of war. He combines very strong party affiliations with military strength, though he has no army of his own. He was born in 1900 and looks unbelievably youthful. The Generalissimo likes him extremely, and acted as personal go-between or matchmaker for his marriage; he was captured with Chiang at Sian. It is generally believed that he has been chosen by the Generalissimo to be his political successor. Most people in China would say that he was No. 2 to Chiang in a political sense, as Pai [Pai Chung-hsi or Bai Chongxi--see below] is No. 2 militarily." https://archive.org/stream/in.ernet.dli.2015.275215/2015.275215.Inside-Asia#page/n299/mode/2up

The problem with Chen getting chosen is that as a reformer he had made enemies in the right wing of the KMT:

"He's [Minister of War He Yingqin's] group was often at loggerheads with younger generals who were less desk-bound, had stronger regional roots and were anxious to build up their own power bases. The War Minister was particularly at odds with the more reform-minded Shanghai and Wuhan defender, Chen Cheng, who married one of Chiang's wards. Even shorter than his rival but much slimmer, Chen was the regime's main conduit to semi-autonomous forces outside the Central Army, and enjoyed good relations with commanders like the successful Cantonese Xue Yue whom Chiang regarded with suspicion. Known to be disgusted by the corruption and apathy of the regime, Chen pushed reform in his base of southern Hubei province, associated himself with the liberal Third Party and had a working relationship with communist representatives in Chungking. This all made it inevitable that, as well as his rivalry with He, he became a *bete noire* for the repressive CC clique of the Chen brothers [Chen Lifu and Chen Guofu]." Fenby, p. 346. https://books.google.com/books?id=JGn_AgAAQBAJ&pg=PA346

One thing that might help Chen overcome resistance from He and the KMT Right would be support from the US. According to Hannah Pakula, (*The Last Empress: Madame Chiang Kai-shek and the Birth of Modern China*), Chen Cheng was "tough, loyal, and popular with Americans." http://books.google.com/books?id=4ZpVntUTZfkC&pg=PA590

Maybe Chen as President could get along better with Stilwell than Chiang did, although Stilwell would be a difficult partner for any Chinese leader...

In an epic 2017 thread that sadly didn't take off, forum legend David T (may he rest in Peace) discussed potential replacements for nationalist Chinese dictator Chiang Kai-shek were he to have died during a Japanese bombardment in Burma in 1942.

Future Premier Chen Cheng seemed like one of the most likely options. Chen was close to Chiang, popular with the Americans and a well-regarded general, but his reformism put him at odds with many in the right-wing of the KMT.

As David T suggested, let's say that US support allows Chen to overcome (at least temporarily) internal party opposition and takes over as the new leader of the Republic of China. Let's further say that, due to butterflies if there is no better reason, Chen is able to root out the communists and the ROC survives. How does it develop under Chen?

One thing that has always bothered me a little about KMT China threads is that people tend to extend more charitability towards Chiang Kai-shek than I would personally be inclined to. I take it as granted that any China without the disasters that were the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution will be better off than OTL, but I think people tend to be a little too optimistic when it comes to the likelihood of Chiang enacting some very necessary policies. Chief among these is land reform, which most people agree is pretty much a pre-requisite for a successful postwar economic boom. It's true that Chiang wasn't particularly against land reform, but he did nothing to actually implement it during his years as dictator in the mainland, so him just deciding to do it after eliminating the communist threat strikes me as a bit odd. Not implausible, but definitely something that sounds like an authorial decision of someone writing an alternate history.

Anyway, there are two reasons why I am curious about a possibility of a Chen Cheng-led China. Firstly, there is the fact that he seemed more genuinely reformist than Chiang, and thus more likely to take decisive action to fix the countries problems. Him potentially developing a close relationship with the US would also tremendously help with that, seeing as the Americans were quite active in pushing for land reform in East Asia at the time (see Japan, South Korea, and, indeed, ROC Taiwan). Secondly, I am intrigued about the possibility of the infighting between Chen and the right-wing of the KMT eventually leading to a permanent split, and the emergence of a multi-party democracy.

This could happen in one of two ways in my opinion:

• Chen manages to secure the KMT party apparatus but the right-wing splits to form a new conservative party.
• Or, the right-wing secures the party apparatus but Chen retains enough influence in the military to prevent them from fully taking over, so he eventually starts building his own base outside the KMT, potentially capitalising on his ties with China's non-communist, non-nationalist, "third force"

Thoughts?