Royal Navy takes heavier losses at Jutland

[BlondieBC]

OTL, Jutland was a tactical win for the High Seas Fleet with no strategic gain for the Germans. In fact, it contributed to the USW campaign/USA entering war/Germany losing. If I counted right, here you have five sunk capital ships and 3 ones damaged. So you kill a few thousand extra British sailors. Net, Net, it changes the war little unless one sees USW being delayed, and I don't here. Or one see some massive British overreaction to the losses. The UK likely course of action is to build some more capital ships, which has only one side effect of marginally reducing army spending and personnel. Now I can't rule out odd butterflies and some massive UK reaction, but unless the UK takes at least a corp and probably an army out of France, the war will end within a week or two of OTL ending.

 

[Mike D]

(boer war concentration camps anyone?)

They weren't really 'concentration camps' as we understand them these days. They weren't designed to kill a lot of people or even really to mistreat them. The problems were just the lack of understanding of disease in the 19C rather than a deliberate British attempt to kill anyone (65% of British casualties were from disease, from memory).

 

[BlondieBC]

Illegal in a vacuum but as you said, the RN was the police of the sea and in the international arena might still makes right or as the Athenians said to the Melians, "The strong do as they will, the weak do as they must."

It's also a matter of the fact that the British were simply stopping ships, the Germans were sinking them. As one American official (I can't remember who) said at the time, it's the difference between one guy looking up your sister's skirt and another guy raping your sister. Or something like that.

Two wrongs do not make a right, especially when the German wrong followed the UK wrong. The UK blockade was clearly illegal base on July 1, 1914 international understanding of the law, and illegal for multiple reasons - No close blockade, blockade of neutral nations, too large a list of contraband, etc.

And the Germans actions were also not generally legal, even though the one we hear most about was legal since the Lusitania was listed in the official list of military ships of the UK. Now probably this had more to do with getting subsidies for the builders than any concrete plans to use in wartime, it still makes the German action legal. Dumb, but legal.

And the rape quote does not help, why must we compare things that are not rape to rape? And it is not even accurate. While probably thousands die illegally in USW, we lose at least 100,000 to starvation of the blockade.

 

[marathag]

but then again the british had a taste for criminal behaviour when it comes to warfare (boer war concentration camps anyone?)

Was it War what the Germans did to the Herero?

Driving civilians in the Omaheke Desert to die is right on track with the Turks later did to the Armenians.

The British didn't intentionally try to murder every Boer civilian they got their hands on, like the Germans tried

"I believe that the nation as such should be annihilated, or, if this was not possible by tactical measures, have to be expelled from the country...This will be possible if the water-holes from Grootfontein to Gobabis are occupied. The constant movement of our troops will enable us to find the small groups of nation who have moved backwards and destroy them gradually."
--General Trotha, 1904

 

[wietze]

They weren't really 'concentration camps' as we understand them these days. They weren't designed to kill a lot of people or even really to mistreat them. The problems were just the lack of understanding of disease in the 19C rather than a deliberate British attempt to kill anyone (65% of British casualties were from disease, from memory).

bullshit, they were fed rations that were sometime spoilt and not enough to keep them alive. when people live in a crowded concentration camp, living on half (or less) rations. if you feed them half rations then you clearly have an intention to mistreat and harm them.

and that excuse of yours is just as bad as excusing genocide, they were concentration camps. the british had perfected the behaviour of intentional neglect up to perfection at that point (the same behaviour that caused the irish famine to become such a disaster).

Was it War what the Germans did to the Herero?

and that has what to do with what i wrote? i am not german

 

[Mike D]

bullshit, they were fed rations that were sometime spoilt and not enough to keep them alive.

What do you think the British soldiers in South Africa were living on at the time? We had a crap logistics system and a poor understanding of disease, not a desire to kill a load of Boer civilians.

and that excuse of yours is just as bad as excusing genocide

Do try and grow up princess.

 

[sharlin]

Told you it would open a can of worms...

 

[Cryhavoc101]

The British suffered some near misses from torpedoes at Jutland that could have been quite painful. The POD is that Lady Luck is not so kind to the British and the near misses turn into hits.​

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List of near-misses for British at Jutland:​

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1) Torpedo hit but did not explode on Revenge (Robert K. Massie, Castles of Steel, pg. 623), one passed ten yards before bow and another twenty from stern (Massie, 630; V.E. Tarrant, Jutland: The German Perspective, pg. 167).​

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All three successfully hit and detonate. Revenge sunk.​

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2) Marlborough would have been hit stern if helm not swinging and one passed under the ship but went too deep (Massie, 629-30; Tarrant, 167)​

Marlborough already had one torpedo hit, either from Wiesbaden or V-48 which caused a 7 degree list and slowed her to 17 knots. (Arthur Marder, Jutland and After, Vol. 3, From the Dreadnought to Scapa Flow, pg. 123) ​

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Assume one hits in addition to earlier torpedo hit. Marlborough sinks.​

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3) Agincourt had one pass port and another starboard (Massie, 630)​

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One torpedo hits. Agincourt moderately damaged.​

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4) Neptune was pursued by one, either deflected by prop wash or ran out of fuel (Massie, 630, Tarrant, pg. 155)​

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Torpedo hits. Neptune heavily damaged. ​

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5) One torpedo passed between Thunderer and Iron Duke (Tarrant, pg. 167).​

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Torpedo hits Thunderer and inflicts moderate damage. ​

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6) U-51 attacked Warspite on morning of June 1 without destroyer screen. ​

She tried to fire two torpedoes but one never launched and the other broke surface, warning Warspite so she can dodge. U-51 did not pursue as she misidentified her as a pre-dreadnought Canopus class (Tarrant, pg. 243).​

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U-51 has better luck and manages to sink the damaged Warspite. ​

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7) Bauer, the U-boat leader, ordered U-32 and U-24 to stay out an extra day and to change patrols from Firth of Forth to the Tyne mouth to intercept damaged British warships. U-70 did not receive the order because it was attacked and forced to dive repeatedly and so left on June 1 per its original orders. Thus Beatty was able to return without any trouble (Tarrant, pg. 244-45). ​

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The order to stay an extra day gets received by at least two of the three subs but are not transferred to the Tyne. One of them is able to put a torpedo into Tiger and sink her. ​

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8) U-43 and U-44 were stationed off the Pentland Firth approach to Scapa Flow. U-43 never received the order to stay out an extra day and returned before Jellicoe arrived. U-44 did stay but rough weather prevented any attack (Tarrant, pg. 245).​

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Both U-boats receive the order to stay out and the weather is more cooperative. One of them is able to put a torpedo into the Orion for moderate damage. ​

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So in addition to the OTL losses the British have lost three battleships and one battle cruiser and have four battleships damaged. German losses are the same as OTL as Scheer is still able to slip behind Jellicoe and makes it home.​

/ ​

How does this affect the future course of the naval war, particularly considering that U-boats were responsible for sinking one battleship and battlecruiser and damaging another battleship?​

The above changes nothing

British Shells with better quality control however.........

 

[machine3589]

Because the Reichsmarine doesn't get formed until after the war, so trying to sink them involves space-time-warp-wormhole-thingies, and so has to go into the ASB forum, but nobody writes stuff there that isn't to do with sodding Game of sodding Thrones, apart from the Bristol group and that Warhammer timeline, which only emphasizes how cool Germans are, even if the authors seem to have forgotten the spiked helmets.

Hey! I have a timeline not related to Westeros or Germans there, so I resent this description.










Though this really is a near-perfect description of the ASB forum right now...

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

The British suffered some near misses from torpedoes at Jutland that could have been quite painful. The POD is that Lady Luck is not so kind to the British and the near misses turn into hits.​

/​

List of near-misses for British at Jutland:​

/​

1) Torpedo hit but did not explode on Revenge (Robert K. Massie, Castles of Steel, pg. 623), one passed ten yards before bow and another twenty from stern (Massie, 630; V.E. Tarrant, Jutland: The German Perspective, pg. 167).​

/​

All three successfully hit and detonate. Revenge sunk.​

/​

2) Marlborough would have been hit stern if helm not swinging and one passed under the ship but went too deep (Massie, 629-30; Tarrant, 167)​

Marlborough already had one torpedo hit, either from Wiesbaden or V-48 which caused a 7 degree list and slowed her to 17 knots. (Arthur Marder, Jutland and After, Vol. 3, From the Dreadnought to Scapa Flow, pg. 123) ​

/​

Assume one hits in addition to earlier torpedo hit. Marlborough sinks.​

/​

3) Agincourt had one pass port and another starboard (Massie, 630)​

/​

One torpedo hits. Agincourt moderately damaged.​

/​

4) Neptune was pursued by one, either deflected by prop wash or ran out of fuel (Massie, 630, Tarrant, pg. 155)​

/​

Torpedo hits. Neptune heavily damaged. ​

/​

5) One torpedo passed between Thunderer and Iron Duke (Tarrant, pg. 167).​

/​

Torpedo hits Thunderer and inflicts moderate damage. ​

/​

6) U-51 attacked Warspite on morning of June 1 without destroyer screen. ​

She tried to fire two torpedoes but one never launched and the other broke surface, warning Warspite so she can dodge. U-51 did not pursue as she misidentified her as a pre-dreadnought Canopus class (Tarrant, pg. 243).​

/​

U-51 has better luck and manages to sink the damaged Warspite. ​

/​

7) Bauer, the U-boat leader, ordered U-32 and U-24 to stay out an extra day and to change patrols from Firth of Forth to the Tyne mouth to intercept damaged British warships. U-70 did not receive the order because it was attacked and forced to dive repeatedly and so left on June 1 per its original orders. Thus Beatty was able to return without any trouble (Tarrant, pg. 244-45). ​

/​

The order to stay an extra day gets received by at least two of the three subs but are not transferred to the Tyne. One of them is able to put a torpedo into Tiger and sink her. ​

/​

8) U-43 and U-44 were stationed off the Pentland Firth approach to Scapa Flow. U-43 never received the order to stay out an extra day and returned before Jellicoe arrived. U-44 did stay but rough weather prevented any attack (Tarrant, pg. 245).​

/​

Both U-boats receive the order to stay out and the weather is more cooperative. One of them is able to put a torpedo into the Orion for moderate damage. ​

/​

So in addition to the OTL losses the British have lost three battleships and one battle cruiser and have four battleships damaged. German losses are the same as OTL as Scheer is still able to slip behind Jellicoe and makes it home.​

/ ​

How does this affect the future course of the naval war, particularly considering that U-boats were responsible for sinking one battleship and battlecruiser and damaging another battleship?​

That list does not include Lion's lucky escape during the battle cruiser action. If she hadn't been lucky Hipper might have sunk all 6 British battle cruisers before Evan-Thomas arrived. It also means that the German battle cruisers would have suffered fewer hits so the Lutzow might have survived the battle.

The Germans' would have given their gaoler a bloodier nose, but they would still be in gaol afterwards.

 

[Basileus444]

I deliberately stayed away from flash fires because 1) they're cliché, and 2) the most famous near-miss in that regard is the Lion whose loss early in the battle has the potential to radically change the outcome and I was going for minimal butterflies.


All of the torpedo attacks not launched by U-boats in the OP were launched during the torpedo boat attack launched at the same time as the German BCs 'death ride' to cover Scheer's second battle turn away from Jellicoe. At this point Scheer just wants to get home as quickly as possible without tangling with the Grand Fleet. Getting the GF to turn away as IOTL was enough from his perspective. What the OP does is take several near misses reported by the British ships and turn them into hits.

Considering the lateness of the battle, it seems reasonable to assume that the effect on the night operations would be minimal. Scheer was able to slip behind the damaged Marlborough whose max speed at the time was 17 knots and its division plus the three QEs so there is no reason to assume he cannot do similarly.

The U-boat dispositions and attacks took place after the battle so these can easily happen with no more HSF losses.

A question. When it comes to Jutland why is it always this.

RN take more losses for X Y Z reasons (99% of them magazine explosions)
RM take no additional losses as per OTL even after defeating the Grand fleet in a 4 hour gunnery duel.

I can only conclude that either you did not read the post or are deliberately creating a strawman. I posited no magazine explosions or 4 hour gunnery duel, only that certain German torpedoes that came within a few dozen yards of British BBs hit instead and that the U-boat dispositions and luck were better. These are not radical changes.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

I take you point about not mentioning Lion because it would probably have changed the course of the battle beyond recognition.

To be honest I didn't read all of your orignal post in detail. I have now and think it wasn't enough to affect the naval war.

Dreadnought, Queen Elisabeth, Australia, one of the Iron Dukes and one of the R class missed the battle because they were refitting or had machinery problems. Under construction are another 2 R class, Repulse and Renown. Plus the 6th Battle Squadron when the Americans join the war in 1917.

I think the Germans would have to have sunk a whole battle squadron's worth of British battleships (i.e. 8) to alter the balance of power in the North Sea.

 

[Basileus444]

I take you point about not mentioning Lion because it would probably have changed the course of the battle beyond recognition.

To be honest I didn't read all of your orignal post in detail. I have now and think it wasn't enough to affect the naval war.

Dreadnought, Queen Elisabeth, Australia, one of the Iron Dukes and one of the R class missed the battle because they were refitting or had machinery problems. Under construction are another 2 R class, Repulse and Renown. Plus the 6th Battle Squadron when the Americans join the war in 1917.

I think the Germans would have to have sunk a whole battle squadron's worth of British battleships (i.e. 8) to alter the balance of power in the North Sea.

Agreed. Even with the Germans losing only 1 capital ship (Lutzow) to 7 British the Royal Navy still has a huge lead with built ships and it has more on the way than the Germans do.

However I do think heads are going to roll in Great Britain. It is going to be much harder to present this as a British victory. The true facts that Scheer was forced to flee and the British still have complete command of the sea are going to have a hard time making headway against the lopsided loss ratio, especially as the British public is frankly spoiled when it comes to naval victories and expects them to be 2nd Trafalgar and a total annihilation of the enemy.

This might cause the HSF to be more aggressive (which could be good or bad for the Germans, depending on butterflies) and I can see it delaying USW with the comparatively better performance of the HSF. Which could have some interesting implications come spring 1917.

 

[marathag]

and that has what to do with what i wrote? i am not german

Was the Germans who tried to do a PR smear originally, while they did equally bad things in Africa, South Pacific and China

 

[CalBear]

What do you think the British soldiers in South Africa were living on at the time? We had a crap logistics system and a poor understanding of disease, not a desire to kill a load of Boer civilians.



Do try and grow up princess.

Really top notch advice.

Might want to follow it and cut the insults.

 

[ghappy1000]

Now, if you combine the battleship losses with the famous battle cruiser explosions occurring to every battle cruiser, a couple more torpedoes being launched by more aggressive Germans and the Germans lose only an extra battle cruiser or two at most, what would be the consequences? Is losing a minimum of 5 battleships [excluding any Queen Elizabeths and every battle cruiser, which would take heavier losses in this scenario] sufficient to impact the major battles [Verdun, the Somme, the Italian Front, Egypt, Brusilov Offensive and the Romanian decision to join the Entente]? Now, what if every battle cruiser was sunk due to the notorious explosions that discredited them with at least 5 slow battleships and more than 1 of the Queen Elizabeth class [one to gunfire or secondary explosion and another to torpedo damage or breakdown]?

 

[Bad@logic]

If the situation got desperate enough for the British from naval losses for *insert appropriate implausible German wank here*, could they call in dreadnoughts and other reinforcing from their other European allies of France and Italy? Or are their fleets entirely occupied dealing with the Austro-Hungarians and maintaining control over the Mediterranean, or does Britain have assets in other regions they would free up as appropriate? Or does the language barrier just scuttle that entirely? I know us Americans had our reinforcements to the Grand Fleet of course, but it would be different for a non-anglaphone country I presume.

Mostly just a query, I had found such a prospect interesting and was wondering if it was ever seriously considered or otherwise possible.

 

[ghappy1000]

If the situation got desperate enough for the British from naval losses for *insert appropriate implausible German wank here*, could they call in dreadnoughts and other reinforcing from their other European allies of France and Italy? Or are their fleets entirely occupied dealing with the Austro-Hungarians and maintaining control over the Mediterranean, or does Britain have assets in other regions they would free up as appropriate? Or does the language barrier just scuttle that entirely? I know us Americans had our reinforcements to the Grand Fleet of course, but it would be different for a non-anglaphone country I presume.

Mostly just a query, I had found such a prospect interesting and was wondering if it was ever seriously considered or otherwise possible.

Maybe a few French battleships and Japanese battlecruisers. It'll take some time to reinforce the British while the Germans gloat about how many British battleships they've sunk and change their strategy. Expect the Royal Navy outside Britain and the Channel Coast to suffer due to an urgency of new construction and reinforcement and possible defence plans in case of raids or invasion will be a serious issue after the 8:1 loss ratio for them.

 

[Zheng He]

Maybe a few French battleships and Japanese battlecruisers. It'll take some time to reinforce the British while the Germans gloat about how many British battleships they've sunk and change their strategy. Expect the Royal Navy outside Britain and the Channel Coast to suffer due to an urgency of new construction and reinforcement and possible defence plans in case of raids or invasion will be a serious issue after the 8:1 loss ratio for them.

There is also the issue of just how banged up is the German Navy? In all of the talk about the OTL battle being a tactical German victory, it is usually forgotten that despite losing more ships and men, after the battle the Grand Fleet was still an effective and coherent fighting force. In fact, didn't Jellicoe even report the fleet ready for action within a day of it returning to Scapa Flow? The High Seas Fleet was in much worse shape.

So ITTL the Grand Fleet loses a few more ships. Okay great, but if the HSF is still banged up badly it does not matter one whit other than in terms of English public opinion.

 

[ghappy1000]

There is also the issue of just how banged up is the German Navy? In all of the talk about the OTL battle being a tactical German victory, it is usually forgotten that despite losing more ships and men, after the battle the Grand Fleet was still an effective and coherent fighting force. In fact, didn't Jellicoe even report the fleet ready for action within a day of it returning to Scapa Flow? The High Seas Fleet was in much worse shape.

So ITTL the Grand Fleet loses a few more ships. Okay great, but if the HSF is still banged up badly it does not matter one whit other than in terms of English public opinion.

About the same as otl for the German Navy, except for one more capital ship and two more cruisers sunk, a few more shell hits [if any] and maybe a few more destroyers lost.