Sealion attempted and failed. Consequences?

Yorel

Recently, while roaming the internet, I found a video that detailed Operation Sealion and explained why it basically had no chance of working, between the poor logistic and planning to the simple fact the German navy didn't have the numbers to protect the invasion force. It wasn't really a surprise as making fun of the "Unnamable Sea Mammal" as we call it is common around here, but I had never particularly dived into the details.

Watching the video though kinda made me curious about what would have happened if the Nazis did launch the Operation and it failed as spectacularly as it would have... I can't imagine that a disastrous failed invasion of Britain would have no consequences. Not expecting the Reich to fall as soon as the invasion fails of course, but just how badly would it damage their armed forces? And what would be the political ramifications of this failure?

As secondary questions, how likely is it that the German High Command would give the Operation a go? Because that seems to be the main hurdle in this. As stupid as the Nazis could get, they still realised they could not pull it off and kept delaying until Hitler gave Operation Barbarossa the priority, which put an end to the invasion plans.
And finally, when would the invasion realistically take place? It was originally planned for September 1940 but would that be feasible?
 

Lalli

Dorknought said:
Halder shoots Hitler in a briefing. Army coup ensues.
Click to expand...

I bit doubt that. At leat there hardly is succesful military coup. There wasn't any serious attempt after Stalingrad and plot after Normandy failed so probably this would be failure too.
 

TheSpectacledCloth

Gone Fishin'
Dorknought said:
Halder shoots Hitler in a briefing. Army coup ensues.
Click to expand...
Lalli said:
I bit doubt that. At leat there hardly is succesful military coup. There wasn't any serious attempt after Stalingrad and plot after Normandy failed so probably this would be failure too.
Click to expand...
Yeah, Halder would've been stopped by Keitel and Jodl. By this stage in the war, it was already too late to overthrow Hitler without risking massive unrest from the German populace. Even if Hitler is killed, there will more likely be a destructive civil war consisting of pro-Nazi generals against anti-Nazi generals.

Goering will have completely fallen from grace, and the SS wasn't strong enough to control Germany yet. So if Hitler were to die, then Hess would take be the new Fuhrer. Which would have definitely been an interesting turn of events.
 

Monk78

What can Germans even put to sea ? Couple of cruisers and ten destroyers?
, after Norway KM is already so crippled that assuming if ALL of it is sunk on day 1 even that would not seriously endanger the Nazi regime
 

Peg Leg Pom

1 There's no Afrika Corps formed to bail out the Italians in North Africa.
2. The Royal Navy is free to deal with the Italian Navy
3. There is much less need to maintain a large Army in the UK so more can be sent to North Africa earlier and later to Malaya. The same is true for Fighters and Medium bombers.
4. Weygand in Algeria will be tempted to break from Vichy if Libya falls to the British.
 

jlckansas

Barbarossa gets put on hold. How long depends on who takes charge of the rebuilding of the troops and Luftwaffe. You might see a purge in the Heer, KM, and Luftwaffe of people that the high command doesn't like, they would use the failure as a way to get rid of them. What would be interesting is if the UK is able to put more troops into Greece to fight Italy and Germany is not able to support them with the attack through Yugoslavia.

UK able to take Libya, stabilize Greece and push back Italy into Albania, and one of Hitlers recurring threats is UK invades or threatens to invade Norway.
 

Peg Leg Pom

Something else to consider is the effect thousands of drowned German soldiers washing up of French and Belgian beaches will have on the newly conquered populations. This is not something the Germans will be able to hide.
 

Post

The biggest setback for the Germans would be the sunk barges. Possibly 50% will be lost, which will have serious consequences on the economy.
 
AlanJWhite

AlanJWhite

Read CS Forester's AH short story "If Hitler had invaded England" published in the collection "Gold from Crete" for an intro giving a well balanced approach to producing such a counterfactual, a plausible account of the ATL events and a sensible (if short) development of the consequences
 

CaptainCalvert

Maybe 100,000 by sea and maybe another 10,000 or 20,000 or so aerial (para and glider) troops committed.
So even in the unlikely event that none get back, that's roughly half what was lost in Tunisia or just the surrendered at Stalingrad. These happened in worse circumstances for the Germans and didn't cause major political ructions.
The loss and discrediting of elite airlanding troops will save Crete later, while loss of aerial teansports and barges will cause major military and industrial problems for a couple of years.
My pick would be North Africa and Greece largely proceed unchanged (though Crete likely stays in allied hands and maybe Rhodes gets taken by the allies), but Tunisia build up is slower due to shortage of transports - and thus losses are a bit lower. Barbarossa encirclements are a little less successful early on, so maybe 300 to 500,000 more trained and experienced soviet troops are available later on. Fall Blau creaks and groans, and may well be given less ambitious goals with the intent of getting the oil in 1943 (good luck with that!).
 

Post

I think there will also be repercussions in the Battle of the Atlantic, for two reasons:
1) AFAIK U-boats were to be a protetective screen. There will be losses of boats and experienced men (more than in the same timeframe in OTL).
2) the loss of barges most likely means new need to be build, and they might be build in wharves that in OTL built U-boats.
Overall this means less U-boats in the Atlantic.

On the other hand, the RN loses more small craft and destroyers, but since most of the lost ones would be stationed in the Channel, this doesn't take much of a toll on escortvesssels.

Luftwaffelosses need to be replenished to, so there will be a slightly smaller LW in Barbarossa. Barbarossa may be delayed a few weeks.

I think they used the waterproofed tanks they made for Sealion in Barbarossa for crossing the Dnjepr, they won't be available.

Overall Barbarossa goes a bit worse, The encirclement at Kiev might be the last feat in 1941 ITTL, no late push to Moscow.

And most importantly: on ah.com there will be discussions about how Hitler would have won the war if he hadn't invaded England.
 
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Cryhavoc101

It would be Dunkirk in reverse - with little opportunity for the landed troops to be recovered.

The loss in barges would have an even greater impact on German industry than they did floating around Channel ports for months did OTL and I suspect the occupied nations would have theirs seized to cover teh shortfall in Germany making life far more difficult in occupied Europe

The loss of trained sailors etc would throttle the expansion of the Kreigsmarine which will obviously have major repercussions to the expansion of the U-boat arm along with the need for civilian yards in Axis occupied Europe to replace lost cargo capacity again impacting Uboat production

The loss of the core of the Divisions and Brigades landed in England (which would be a Fighting troops and A echelon forces and most of their HQ staff) would gut those Divisions leaving them as a shell and given that they are the Fallshirmjeager (already savaged in the Netherlands operations) and mountain units their loss certainly in the short term would be keenly felt and mean that they would be unavailable for operations for much of 41.

It would be the first full loss of major units suffered to date by the German army and would dispel earlier the myth that had begun to surround it

Losses to the Transport Aircraft crews would also cause issues as these pilots were often drawn from training units again throttling the recovery of the Luftwaffe following its losses taken during the French Campaign and the Battle of Britain in terms of experienced trainers and fresh pilots (already having taken a kicking in the Netherlands)

Conversely with the invasion defeated the UK would not have to keep as many forces in the home islands and could afford to send more forces, men, aircraft tanks and guns to Africa and beyond.

This has quite large implications - perhaps even as far as those lunatics in Tokyo and that fool in Moscow
 
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