Second Peninsular War: Hitler invades Spain

[El_Presidente]

Okay, so Hitler decides that before attacking the USSR he must defeat the British. To do that he decides for a Mediterranean-centered strategy, focusing on depriving the British of oil and acces to India.
It is decided that absolute control of the Mediterranean is needed for the African campaing to succeed, and Gibraltar is key in archieving that. But Franco has already refused in Hendaye to join the war, so Hitler gambles all in and invades Spain.
What happens next?

 

[Luath]

Okay, so Hitler decides that before attacking the USSR he must defeat the British. To do that he decides for a Mediterranean-centered strategy, focusing on depriving the British of oil and acces to India.
It is decided that absolute control of the Mediterranean is needed for the African campaing to succeed, and Gibraltar is key in archieving that. But Franco has already refused in Hendaye to join the war, so Hitler gambles all in and invades Spain.
What happens next?

Spain falls apart like a paper bag in a rainstorm. Britain might invade either through Gibraltar or Portugal, which would have to get in the war now anyway. Other butterflies? to numerous to imagine.

 

[Tehshudge]

By doing so, Hitler just sent a massive gift to anyone doing strategic planning for the Allies. If Germany shows itself to be capable of attacking neutral fascists in order to shore up support, Salazar would be contacting London that evening to work out some sort of arrangement. This means that the Nazis are now either facing the entirety of Iberia when they invade, or else they would have a very (justifiably) paranoid and unfriendly Portugal breathing down their neck the entire time they spend in the peninsula.

As for the peninsula itself, Spain is going to be nightmarish for the Germans to hold. The Allies have the ability to land from virtually every direction besides the French border, which means numerous German divisions are going to be tied down doing garrison duty. In the event the Allies decide to invade Softer Underbelly 2: Electric Boogaloo, all they have to do is hold either side of the Pyrenees (the French, Basque and Catalan locals will be thrilled to help them do this), and then all of those aforementioned divisions are trapped in occupied territory waiting to be caught up by the main Allied offensive.

Depending on when in the war Hitler does this, several of the OTL Axis nations in Eastern Europe would be - like the Portuguese - seeking some sort of protection agreement with a nation opposed to Germany.

 

[Deleted member 114175]

Would Italy be granted the Mediterranean part of Spain?

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Okay, so Hitler decides that before attacking the USSR he must defeat the British. To do that he decides for a Mediterranean-centered strategy, focusing on depriving the British of oil and acces to India.
It is decided that absolute control of the Mediterranean is needed for the African campaing to succeed, and Gibraltar is key in archieving that. But Franco has already refused in Hendaye to join the war, so Hitler gambles all in and invades Spain.
What happens next?

When is the decision made and how much time is given for preparations? A hastily prepared attack could struggle with the Vallespín Fortifications, one with a long preparatory period would (since Franco seems to have had a few sources in Germany) meet a million Civil War veterans, even more extensive fortifications, and perhaps even allied units/equipment*. The move would have to be carefully planned to hit the sweet spot between to two if Hitler wants to quickly roll over Spain.

*"if Hitler invaded Hell something something"

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

By doing so, Hitler just sent a massive gift to anyone doing strategic planning for the Allies. If Germany shows itself to be capable of attacking neutral fascists in order to shore up support, Salazar would be contacting London that evening to work out some sort of arrangement. This means that the Nazis are now either facing the entirety of Iberia when they invade, or else they would have a very (justifiably) paranoid and unfriendly Portugal breathing down their neck the entire time they spend in the peninsula.

According to the Iberian Pact, Portugal would have to declare war on Germany should the Germans invade Spain.

 

[Agra]

I say Franco pulls a Thailand. After a day or two of fighting and seeing that he has no chance, he gives into Hitler's demands, joins the Axis but tries to avoid committing troops anywhere outside of Iberia.

 

[Corjomc]

Do the Allies help Franco or fund any remnants of loyalist Spain? If both are they setting up a post-war civil war Rd II in the peninsular if the Allies win?

Allied victory is the most likely still I believe but the Axis should do better in Africa.

 

[Lusitania]

Any invasion of Spain will result in less resources and manpower for the invasion of Russia. This goes completely against everything Nazi and Hitler had said and planned for. Also the Germans are after the fall of France locked into a battle with Britain while trying to prepare for Russia. Germany only had a fixed amount of fuel and resources that were needed to prepare for invasion of Soviet Union. Lastly the Spanish were friendly neutral selling its resources to Germany so why invade?

Germany only committed troops to North African in February 1941 so why would Germany decide in 1940 to concentrate of Mediterranean? The British had already transferred their supply route from India around The African continent due to British ships being subject to attacks by German planes/bombers in Mediterranean.

 

[El_Presidente]

Any invasion of Spain will result in less resources and manpower for the invasion of Russia. This goes completely against everything Nazi and Hitler had said and planned for. Also the Germans are after the fall of France locked into a battle with Britain while trying to prepare for Russia. Germany only had a fixed amount of fuel and resources that were needed to prepare for invasion of Soviet Union. Lastly the Spanish were friendly neutral selling its resources to Germany so why invade?

Germany only committed troops to North African in February 1941 so why would Germany decide in 1940 to concentrate of Mediterranean? The British had already transferred their supply route from India around The African continent due to British ships being subject to attacks by German planes/bombers in Mediterranean.

Well, nevertheless an attack on Gibraltar was considered, so the only thing it's needed it's the germans to give more consideration to the thought of closing the Mediterranean.

 

[Anchises]

Okay, so Hitler decides that before attacking the USSR he must defeat the British. To do that he decides for a Mediterranean-centered strategy, focusing on depriving the British of oil and acces to India.
It is decided that absolute control of the Mediterranean is needed for the African campaing to succeed, and Gibraltar is key in archieving that. But Franco has already refused in Hendaye to join the war, so Hitler gambles all in and invades Spain.
What happens next?

I don't think Hitler would have to fight Spain. Merely showing that he is serious about "Axis or Invasion" would suffice. IOTL Canaris convinced Franco that Hitler wouldn't invade. Some manouvers near the Spanish Borders and some incidents ought to change that...

Of course the problems only start if Spain enters the Axis. A starving, devastated Spain that has been bleeding itself white for years will be a huge drain.

Apart from all the points others mentioned (easy to invade etc.), I think British intelligence would have a field day. The Spanish Generals were bought off IOTL, ITTL Britain can easily buy Axis intelligence with a few million pounds and luxury goods. Franco might even attempt secret cooperation to save his skin in case of an Axis defeat.

 

[Lusitania]

Well, nevertheless an attack on Gibraltar was considered, so the only thing it's needed it's the germans to give more consideration to the thought of closing the Mediterranean.

Well can someone please explain when such an attack was to of taken place? This is the same Germany that was prepared to leave Greece and Yugoslavia as neutrals because it wanted to concentrate on Russia.

 

[Ramontxo]

No way, Hitler would not invade Spain. Now to use Serrano Suñer and the Falange to pressure Franco, that is far more possible

 

[Arkenfolm]

Franco's regime is screwed either way at this point. Either he resists the Nazis and is overthrown in favour of a more loyal puppet, or he gives in Thailand-style after some skirmishes and suffers the consequences he knew would happen if he joined the Axis, with resource/supply shortages, the Allies helping to reignite the Spanish Civil War, and famine gripping Spain before an outright invasion by the British and United States (and possibly Portugal) in 1942 which will topple the Spanish State by 1944 at the latest, tying down a huge amount of German manpower in the process.

 

[bobbobbins3]

I’d assume that Franco’s regime would crumble rapidly under a German invasion. Obviously those loyal to Franco would still conduct guerrilla warfare against occupying Germans, but I also feel that there would also be some Spanish fascists that welcome german forces and would help the occupying forces. Hitler could probably use Spain as a prime example of what refusing hitler’s orders results in. From there, Germany could attempt to take Gibraltar, but they’d definitely have to look out for a naval invasion from the US or UK.

 

[Tannenberg]

The infraestructure on Spain is really poor for a quick rush into France, so I imagine the Allies pulling an Operation Dragon-ish into Spain proper

 

[Ultima Ratio]

I think Franco would fold if he is threatened with force.

 

[RightHoJeeves]

Spain starves since they were being fed by the Americans and the Nazis get absolutely nothing out of it other than a crack at Gibraltar which would resist to the bitter end and probably turn into a complete fiasco.

Depending on when this occurs it might push even more Wehrmacht officers into the "Let's Kill Hitler" camp since it would show he has no idea what he's doing. At least the USSR is both an ideological enemy and an existential threat, Spain is attacking a friendly nation that's far more useful as a neutral than a cobelligerent.

 

[Cook]

But Franco has already refused in Hendaye to join the war...

Franco didn't refuse to enter the war at Hendaye, just the opposite in fact; he stated what he wanted Spain to gain from the war, and stipulated the military and economic assistance he expected Germany to provide Spain in order for the them to effectively fight and cope with the disruption to overseas trade that the war would bring. Spain's gains, apart from Gibraltar, would have come at the expense of Vichy France, which Hitler was still trying to persuade to be more actively pro-Axis, while the economic assistance requested by Franco was deliberately understated, with the Caudillo confident that once Germany had agreed to provide the initially requested assistance, Berlin would feel obliged to provide more as time went on; Eberhard von Stohrer, the German ambassador to Madrid and Admiral Canaris, the head of the Abwehr, both separately warned Hitler that Franco had drastically understated Spain's requirements. Since Hitler was unwilling to supply the oil and grain that Franco demanded as the cost for Spanish belligerence, to say nothing of Morocco, Guinea, and Algeria, he settled for continuing Spanish pro-Axis non-belligerence, providing air and sea bases for German forces in the expectation that they were going to win the war anyway.