Second Reign of Justinian II - Speculation

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In 695, Emperor Justinian II was dragged before jeering crowds in the Hippodrome and mutilated by the rebel Strategos of Hellas, Leontios.

After that, he was exiled across the Black Sea to Kherson, expecting to never be heard from again in Constantinople.

But, he came back.

After many years in Kherson regaining his strength and dignity, Justinian fled the isolated theme and made his way north into the Pontic steppe to seek out the Khagan of the Khazars. Upon finding his court, he struck a deal with the Khagan to help him regain his throne, and Justinian married the Khagan’s sister. Naming her Theodora in symbolic homage to his namesake, they set out to the coast of the Sea of Azov together.

Unfortunately for Justinian, the complacent Leontios no longer sat the throne. In tragic irony, the Germanic general Apsimaros had overthrown Leontios, cut off his nose, and exiled him to a monastery. Apsimaros now ruled under the proper Greek name Tiberios but he was insecure on the throne.

This caused Tiberios to send agents to the Khazar Khagan, bribing him to have Justinian killed. The Khagan accepted these overtures and sent two men to the Azov to bring Justinian back dead or alive. Justinian killed these two men and fled on a small boat with his followers, striking out for land of the Bulgar Khagan.

In a probably apocryphal story during his journey to Bulgaria, Justinian’s boat is caught in a ferocious storm and it seemed very likely that his loyal band would meet their fates. In desperation, one of Justinian’s followers urged the exiled Emperor to swear he would not seek bloody reprisal when he regained the throne. Justinian was reported to shake his fist at the heavens, crying out "If I spare a single one of them, may God drown me here". The Storm stopped soon after.

In a stunning tale, Justinian then heads an army of Slavs and Bulgars and reclaims his birthright, restoring the line of Heraklios to the throne in the face of impossible odds. What followed though was an unfortunate episode where the paranoid and revenge-thirsty Justinian indulges himself in a mass slaughter of the noble class in revenge for his deposition. Although it may be exaggerated by later accounts, it certainly gained him no friends. As a result, he and his family were killed in 711 and, after a succession of strongmen to the purple, Leo III and the Isaurian dynasty took over (starting the perhaps more unfortunate legacy of Iconoclasm within the empire.)


This all begs the question though, what if Justinian had forsook revenge on that little boat near the Dniester? What if he used magnanimous clemency upon his return to the throne and realized many of follies that led to his first deposition? Justinian was a capable and energetic ruler, as well as a proven military commander. He certainly could have been a credit to the empire, and he already had a son at the time of his death which stabilized the possible succession. What do you all think the sons of Heraklios would’ve ended up like had Justinian ruled with more sense the second time around?

If successful, some possible results would be avoiding the 20 Years Anarchy, possibly avoiding Iconoclasm altogether, a recovery of imperial authority in the Balkans perhaps, or even a reconquest of Carthage if things go that well. Lots of interesting results from this I think.

[Just as a side note, Turtledove’s Justinian is an excellent, although fictional, account of Justinian’s life. I wasn’t sure I’d like it when I picked it up but honestly it’s a great read and I’m enjoying myself immensely working through it. It really brings the drama and sense of the times to you in a more personal way (if you can bear the more erotic scenes that Turtledove seems fond of detailing...)]
 
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Justinian II was, if anything, "the determinator". He had to fight back or escape several threats would they be political or mortal in nature and this doesn't predispose anyone to clemency. For the sake of sleeping without risking another usurpation/assassination/plot/etc. Justinian II had to make a show of strength. The difference we might get ITTL is how much he does that.
But really, at this point giving he owed his return to the purple more to political instability and lack of alternatives than real support (either popular or nobiliar), I'm just not seeing how his second reign could turn better except with both a change of personality and having either Arabs or Bulgars not pressuring imperial borders.
 
Justinian II was, if anything, "the determinator". He had to fight back or escape several threats would they be political or mortal in nature and this doesn't predispose anyone to clemency. For the sake of sleeping without risking another usurpation/assassination/plot/etc. Justinian II had to make a show of strength. The difference we might get ITTL is how much he does that.
But really, at this point giving he owed his return to the purple more to political instability and lack of alternatives than real support (either popular or nobiliar), I'm just not seeing how his second reign could turn better except with both a change of personality and having either Arabs or Bulgars not pressuring imperial borders.

I would say a successful reign of Justinian would be:

• Tiberios surviving to ascend the throne after his father
•A truce or tribute being paid by the Arabs
•No immediate threats against the Emperor from usurpers like Bardanes
•Good terms with Tervel

Is it possible for Justinian to keep his relationship with Tervel as Caesar? It was a tricky relationship OTL, but I suppose it is doable as long as the Arabs pose a threat to the Armeniac themes. A victory against the Arabs in Kilikia would no doubt do wonders in strengthening Justinian’s position in the capital against would-be usurpers.

I think Justinian could take his revenge while still moderating his excesses. The execution of Leontios and Apsimaros are no doubt in order, and Bardanes if he makes a misstep in his play for the purple as well. These and maybe some more conspicuous plotters would probably combine to keep Justinian appearing strong to potential rivals without alienating too much of the population.
 
I would say a successful reign of Justinian would be:
• Tiberios surviving to ascend the throne after his father
It would ask for a relatively long reign of Justinian II, at least ten years more which giving the situation, is difficult.
You could arguably see a survival of Tiberios, with Justinian still dying as IOTL, and reappearing some years later as a surprise usurper; and consider it as more likely.

•A truce or tribute being paid by the Arabs
The war was both disastrous for Byzzies IOTL, and the Caliphate under a real virtuous circle of raiding/reinforcement/occupation at this point. If anything, we could try our hand at how Constantinople could be the one paying a tribute, which wouldn't make Justinian more popular to say the least.
Even if the emperor focused more on the military threats in Anatolia rather than settling the internal situation (whom instability allowed Arabs to make a go at the region in first place, so it's not like it was an inane decision if poorly executed, pun intended). Frankly Justinian is only to blame for the renewal of attacks, and his winning personality would not help there.

•No immediate threats against the Emperor from usurpers like Bardanes
At this point, usurpations were the common bread of Byzantine politics, successful or failed. I'm not too sure how to avoid them at least for a long period, but maybe you have a more clear idea yourself?

Is it possible for Justinian to keep his relationship with Tervel as Caesar?
As you said, it would be quite complex : Justinian's own legitimacy was tricky enough that he couldn't really spare time, resources or political credit to undermine it further. Giving the important military role of the emperors, just leaving territories to Bulgars without fighting over them wouldn't have been really accepted. Especially with the poor situation in Anatolia, following the models of emperors since Julio-Claudian and scoring some peripheral victory was seen as a easy way to bolster some legitimacy and acknowledgement.
Now, Justinian could have gambled away there, and just dealt with it. But it would have consequences when it comes to his leadership.

A victory against the Arabs in Kilikia would no doubt do wonders in strengthening Justinian’s position in the capital against would-be usurpers.
With which troops? Justinian's constant issue was that he lacked men, and had to rely on hastenly gathered peasants, former enemies and trust in generals. Either Justinian leads the army (something he didn't really either do a lot, neither excelled in it) which is a good way to make some palatial plotters raise their hopes up, either he's content having generals doing the job and risk having them appearing as viable alternatives with less of despotic drive.
Justinian could hope beneficing from a tactical victorious defense, maybe not to the point being an equivalent of the Siege of 717 (even if it's quite likely IMO), but the Caliphate is too strong, Byzantium is a bit too weak and surrounded by less than friendly rulers to Justinians, to really go to the offensive right then.

I'm not saying that a longer Justinian's reign is impossible, even if it would be probably limited to the point I suspect it wouldn't last ten years more, but he really f****d things up. Having one or two problems listed above might be manageable, if not resolvable, but all of these...
 
It would ask for a relatively long reign of Justinian II, at least ten years more which giving the situation, is difficult.
You could arguably see a survival of Tiberios, with Justinian still dying as IOTL, and reappearing some years later as a surprise usurper; and consider it as more likely.

Justinian was roughly in his 40’s by the time of his death. It is not a particularly old age, but no doubt his health (both physical and mental) had suffered from the stresses of imperial rule and from his tribulations could take a toll on the man. I think though he could survive at least until Tiberios comes of age.
The idea that Tiberios lives and returns as a usurper is also an interesting concept, especially as a Heraclian claimant restoring peace after an anarchy would parallel the first Heraclius.

As for the other points, the disaster against Tervel on the outset of his second reign was pretty crippling for his military. Theophanes claims that Justinian’s force was spread out foraging (with all the Thematic cavalry) and that the Bulgars surprised them and routed them. If either Justinian leads a successful battle, even if it’s just inconclusive but he holds the field, will boost his legitimacy and perceived power. If Justinian keeps the peace then he still has a tricky situation but now he has an army to lead against the Arabs.

His best bet really against warding off usurpers is the age old trick: military victory. His best bet would be leading his thematic army that’s OTL was scattered in Bulgaria to Cilicia instead. If he can at least win a victory and impose some sort of truce against the Caliph, then his position is at least solidified until the treasury and manpower issues recover at least a bit. Also, any successful campaign against either Arab or Bulgar could allow population resettlement’s that would help the Empire (perhaps the rest of the Mardites that were left over agree to fight for the Emperor).

Promoting his followers that supported him in exile to positions in the government and lessening the tax burden from the first reign are some internal issues that can be solved as well.


Honestly, I think Justinian might have a better go of it if the Battle of Sebastopolis didn’t result in a Slavic defection during his first reign. He was already receiving an insane tribute from the Arabs, and now he has just won a solid victory again (depending on the magnitude of the victory) and he could exploit it, although I think his destructive tax policy could be ruinous anyway.

It’s all really tricky, but I think it would make a pretty interesting TL
 

trajen777

Banned
I always thought this was an excellent TL -- I like the 1st reign opportunity vs the 2nd time -- cant resist the 1st in a quick tl -- he was very very quick in taking action and with a few breaks could really have made a difference --
685 -- takes over as ruler
686 -- strikes out at Arabs (in the middle of a civil war) and wins a campaign -- adds significant increase in treaty payments
687 -9 -- strikes into the Balkans and captures 30 - 50,000 slavs and recruits them into a military unit (army) in Anatolia // removes 12,000 Marondites from Syria (forms naval themes)
688 -90-- Defeats Bulgar's (takes additional captives for army)
91-2 -- defeats Arabs and gets new treaty with additional Arab payments
92 Battle of Sebastoplis (here is the change -- instead of a separate Serb army -- the units are integrated into the Byz army) -- the Byz win a massive victory (they were winning till the Slavs switch sides to the Arabs). The capture the Arab leader. A truce is negotiated whereby the Antioch, Aleppo, Homs, Hama, and Tiberius are ceded to Byz. for a 5 year truce. Emboldened by this the Arab rebels in Yemen retake Egypt and the civil war rages.
93-94 -- Justinian invades Bulgaria and the Slavic lands and captures another 30,000 troops. (without the defection of the Slavs at Sebastpolis they is no disbandment of the Slav army or the slaughter of the Slavs who stayed loyal)
95 - 99 Forces are transferred west and Italy is retaken
00 The renewal of the war begins again with the Byz and the rebels signing an alliance. Damascus is taken by rebels, the coast and Jers is taken by the Byz. Themes are set up by now in Italy and the the Balkans.
02 - 04 -- The Arab nation collapse as Persia breaks away. Byz and the rebels fight with Byz retaking Egypt and Dam.
 
Also, how do you guys think the lack of Iconoclasm and the 20 Year Anarchy would affect the Byzantine Empire going into the future?
 
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