Spanish Armada succeeds

[kaeim]

Hey, I'm been trying to create an timeline when the Spanish Armada (the 1588 armada) succeeds in invading England and takes over England. I need any help you can all give me though in saying what happens next. I need your theories on the following;

Is England completely taken over?

What Presbyterian Scotland's reaction is

Does England's defeat make things better or worse for the United Provinces (i.e. the Netherlands)

What short term affects are there?

 

[Janprimus]

Hey, I'm been trying to create an timeline when the Spanish Armada (the 1588 armada) succeeds in invading England and takes over England. I need any help you can all give me though in saying what happens next. I need your theories on the following;

Is England completely taken over?

What Presbyterian Scotland's reaction is

Does England's defeat make things better or worse for the United Provinces (i.e. the Netherlands)

What short term affects are there?

The position of the United Provinces would be interesting, since a lot of Spanish troops in the Low Countries would have to be diverted to England. They (the Dutch Republic) would lack English support, although the greatest English contribution was the threat they were for the Spanish; the Republic didn't get a lot of direct English support.
Concluding things would be better for the Republic during the Spanish campaign to conquer England; but their position will be a lot worse if or when the Spanish manage to conquer England.

 

[kaeim]

The position of the United Provinces would be interesting, since a lot of Spanish troops in the Low Countries would have to be diverted to England. They (the Dutch Republic) would lack English support, although to greatest English contribution was the threat they were for the Spanish; the Republic didn't get a lot of direct English support.
Concluding things would be better for the Republic during the Spanish campaign to conquer England; but their position will be a lot worse if or when the Spanish manage to conquer England.

Yeah, that was what I was wondering about; with Parma and roughly 20,000 veterans in England, its not the effects on the United Provinces that interests me, but the affect on France. Philip II in OTL not long after the failure of the Armada ordered an invasion of France to try and depose the newly crowned King; Henry IV. I'm trying to work out what changes; if any, occur in France

 

[Grey Wolf]

I would imagine there is a Resistance, maybe led by the Queen herself Or perhaps you can dragoon Raleigh into leading it, though his version would be guerilllas in the West country.

I can't see the Spanish being able to sweep over the whole country in one go, and would imagine there would be an attempt to stabilise a government somewhere - the problem with doing it in the North is that the North-West at least was a hotbed of Catholicism in the ordinary people not many decades before...

The question would be how far the country simply takes the view that having a new and crowned monarch with a pet parliament makes that person and their government legitimate?

It will be easier if Elizabeth is killed, harder if she remains free. If she is dead, then the next echelon down of claimants is pretty weak (Greys and Stewarts IIRC) and would be very difficult to rally around.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Alayta]

Britain would not have been taken completly.
After receiving a (very) high ransom for the london area and making some agreements on naval wars and tributes to be paid, the spanissh would retreat and concentrate on the netherlands - who would be in a more difficult position afterwards with spain havin new money and one powerfull enemy less to deal with.

 

[Janprimus]

Yeah, that was what I was wondering about; with Parma and roughly 20,000 veterans in England, its not the effects on the United Provinces that interests me, but the affect on France. Philip II in OTL not long after the failure of the Armada ordered an invasion of France to try and depose the newly crowned King; Henry IV. I'm trying to work out what changes; if any, occur in France

I see, but hope that you will forgive, since I find the effects on the United Provinces a lot more interesting; which isn't a big surprise, since I'm Dutch.

Spain can not invade England, fight a rebellion in the Low Countries and invade France all at once. So a Spanish invasion of France is unlikely. OTOH when Henry IV feels strong enough he might decide to invade Spanish territories instead.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Britain would not have been taken completly.
After receiving a (very) high ransom for the london area and making some agreements on naval wars and tributes to be paid, the spanissh would retreat and concentrate on the netherlands - who would be in a more difficult position afterwards with spain havin new money and one powerfull enemy less to deal with.

The whole point of the king's planning was to return England to Catholicism so replacing the monarch and making sure their regime is strong enough to survive has to be part of their long-term plans

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[kaeim]

Agreed, but the problem inevitably arises in that how can Spain ensure that England returns to Catholicism? Wouldn't it likely that Philip II, based on his marriage to Mary, take the throne of England for himself. Obviously, he's never going to the country itself. I would then see him using Parliament (Philip II was well known for always keeping the local customs and laws of nations under his command such as Portugal and Aragon) to maintain his command over England. Obviously, no Protestant will be permitted to rise to the position of MP.

Can anyone help me then in determining where Protestantism mainly flourished in England during this period?

Also, the largest change I can see is in the 30 Years War, since Bohemia won't assume that Frederick will have the same amount of influence as they believed him to have in OTL due to his connection with England.

Another area is in how long Spain can continue to maintain its hold over England? At this point, Spain's finances had largely run out and was overreliant upon bullion exports from the New World which were irregular at best. What can England basically provide for Spain's coffers? I know that England did a very good trade in wool, so how far might that continue?

 

[Alayta]

The whole point of the king's planning was to return England to Catholicism so replacing the monarch and making sure their regime is strong enough to survive has to be part of their long-term plans

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

True. But Spain wasn´t in a comfortable situation at that time. Money and treaties would do it.
Or do you think questions of religoius matter were more important than wealth and power for the spanish nobility?

 

[Janprimus]

Agreed, but the problem inevitably arises in that how can Spain ensure that England returns to Catholicism? Wouldn't it likely that Philip II, based on his marriage to Mary, take the throne of England for himself. Obviously, he's never going to the country itself. I would then see him using Parliament (Philip II was well known for always keeping the local customs and laws of nations under his command such as Portugal and Aragon) to maintain his command over England. Obviously, no Protestant will be permitted to rise to the position of MP.

Can anyone help me then in determining where Protestantism mainly flourished in England during this period?

Also, the largest change I can see is in the 30 Years War, since Bohemia won't assume that Frederick will have the same amount of influence as they believed him to have in OTL due to his connection with England.

Another area is in how long Spain can continue to maintain its hold over England? At this point, Spain's finances had largely run out and was overreliant upon bullion exports from the New World which were irregular at best. What can England basically provide for Spain's coffers? I know that England did a very good trade in wool, so how far might that continue?

hmmm he had and has a somewhat different reputation in the Low Countries. He is known for his centralization attempts, raising taxes, preferring civil servants over the Dutch nobility, his religious intolerance...
However at the same time he did have a good reputation in Spain, but he never understanded the Habsburg Netherlands like his father Charles V, who grew up in Habsburg Netherlands.

 

[kaeim]

hmmm he had and has a somewhat different reputation in the Low Countries. He is known for his centralization attempts, raising taxes, preferring civil servants over the Dutch nobility, his religious intolerance...
However at the same time he did have a good reputation in Spain, but he never understanded the Habsburg Netherlands like his father Charles V, who grew up in Habsburg Netherlands.

Agreed; Philip II was intolerant of other religions, but that intolerence apparently ended as far as the borders of the Spanish Empire. For example, Philip II refused to allow news of Elizabeth I's excommunication pass through his lands. Plus the fact that he attempted to marry the woman suggests that he wasn't as hardcore as many historians believe. Plus, he was definately at loggerheads a lot with the Papacy, such as control over the Spanish Church and control over the Jesuits.

 

[Janprimus]

Agreed; 1 Philip II was intolerant of other religions, but that intolerence apparently ended as far as the borders of the Spanish Empire. For example, Philip II refused to allow news of Elizabeth I's excommunication pass through his lands. Plus the fact that he attempted to marry the woman suggests that he wasn't as hardcore as many historians believe. 2 Plus, he was definately at loggerheads a lot with the Papacy, such as control over the Spanish Church and control over the Jesuits.

1 I agree, but if Spain conquers England, then England becomes a part of the Spanish Empire, so his English policies will probably also be less tolerant.

2 The also very catholic Charles V had a similar difficult relationship with the papacy.

 

[kaeim]

1 I agree, but if Spain conquers England, then England becomes a part of the Spanish Empire, so his English policies will probably also be less tolerant.

I agree with that. One major effect that I'm wondering about is whether the Jesuits will switch their attention from South America to England, leaving a more pagan and thus a more culturally aware society?

I'm also wondering whether a English Inquisition will be established?

 

[Tyr]

I don't think Spain would conquer England.
More likely is a Spanish friendly, catholic Englishman with a bit of a claim to the throne is placed there as something slightly less than a vassal.
Think the US in Iraq.

English inquisition...It depends who is in power but if they have any sense they would go softly, softly.
Puritans are screwed, they're going to be hit badly. But moderate protestants...things will be nicer towards them to bring them back into the catholic fold.

 

[Niko Malaka]

1 I agree, but if Spain conquers England, then England becomes a part of the Spanish Empire, so his English policies will probably also be less tolerant.

2 The also very catholic Charles V had a similar difficult relationship with the papacy.

At some point also the Catholic Kings, Isabella and Ferdinand had a difficult relationship with the Papacy. The origin of the problem, I think, was on the role of the religion in the scheme of the Hispanic Monarchy. As a raising autoritary monarchy, the first hispanic monarchs saw the religion as a political tool or, if you want to say it differently, as an extension of their political power. That has much to do with the origin and longevity of the Spanish Inquisition, which in many senses was a political-ideological police, and also has to do with the ethnic cleasing against jews and muslims.Through it could seem favourable to the church's interests in fact it was a breaking up with the traditional relation between the Papacy and the christian princes, not unlike to Gallicanism, mutatis mutandis. In that sense, we can say that the Reformation helped a bit the Hispanic Monarchy since it made the Papacy "somewhat" dependent of the spanish support and less likely to contest the throne's aspirations regarding church's affairs.

Regarding your point 1, I agree about the possible religious repression in England, but besides Philip II politics, would english catholics demand, or even lead, some action against the protestants?
Anyway, as others have said, I have doubts about the possibilities of Spain to retain England much time. It would put new economical and logistical problems and, if there is serious resistance, Philip's manpower could became overstreched.
Well, Philip II could take the throne as he did in Portugal, but Portugal is in the backyard of Spain and their nobility and institutions seem more likely to accept or at least tolerate Philip's rule than the english ones and perhaps Philip's claim over the portuguese throne was more defendible than the english one. Also, if Portugal can be used as example, Portuguese affairs reamined mostly in portuguese hands during Philip's reign, so an english inquisition is not inevitable.
If it happens as Tyr proppose, who could be the candidate/s to the english throne?

Cheers.

 

[kaeim]

According to wikipedia, in exchange for the support of the Pope, both he and Philip II would come together to decide who the next King of England was. It had been decided that Cardinal William Allen, a English Cardinal in exile, would take over temporarily. I've been doing some tracing, and I've worked out that the closest relative is a Plantagenet. Its very confusing tracing a family history, but apparently Arthur Plantagent, who served at the court of Henry VIII had three daughters; Frances, Elizabeth and Bridget. Frances, the eldest daughter, married twice and had a son in the second marriage to a Thomas Monke, and her son was called Anthony Monke. After that, it gets very confusing but Anthony Monke had two sons, the eldest (Christopher Monke) died (I think) at a young age, and his second son (Thomas Monke) ended up living in Devon where he had more than seven children.

Now, its very confusing, but the dates in which Thomas Monke's children were born tend to be just after the Spanish Armada, so, I'm guessing that Mr. Thomas is a candidate for the throne of England. Of course, whether he's Protestant or Catholic, I cannot tell

 

[kaeim]

Ok, I've been working on the AAR for a bit, and I've got some new questions.

How centralised is England at this point in regards to government

How likely is James VI to assist Elizabeth if she requested it? I'm in two minds with this; firstly that Elizabeth executed his mother and so might not help because of that; or whether he would help because he doesn't want to see a Catholic back on the throne and bordering a very Protestant Scotland

 

[Gonzaga]

Maybe the Spanish members here could correct me, but I remember Condottiero explaining that Philip II didn't want Elizabeth deposed, but instead only forced to remove support to the Dutch, allow freedom to the Catholics and other demands, while the Spanish troops would occupy Kent and some English ports. Probably they would also try to force her to marry a Catholic prince (a Habsburg?).

 

[kaeim]

Maybe the Spanish members here could correct me, but I remember Condottiero explaining that Philip II didn't want Elizabeth deposed, but instead only forced to remove support to the Dutch, allow freedom to the Catholics and other demands, while the Spanish troops would occupy Kent and some English ports. Probably they would also try to force her to marry a Catholic prince (a Habsburg?).

You assume that no "accidents" take place

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

On England -- IIRC, Phillip wanted to install his daughter Isabella to the throne (I think he was somehow claiming it through his dead wife, Mary... yeah ) Still a good possibility he'd settle for a Stuart, though...

On France -- Phillip II wasn't the type, esp. in his early years, to say no to a war, even if he had a lot of other problems on his plate (joined the Hapsburg league while fighting a Dutch rebellion, etc); so I can easily see him going ahead with his French intervention. The Hughenots would, I have to think, demoralized upon hearing the fate of England; Cardinal de Bourbon taking the throne may be possible...

On the Netherlands -- Unsure; on the one hand, they're losing a major ally in England, even if they never got direct support; OTOH, Spain had tried OTL to retake the Dutch for decades without success, so it may be less of an impact than that...

My guess -- England falls to a Catholic monarch, with at minimum promises of neutrality toward Philiip's designs; Spain will be able to get one of two things from this: the Catholic League takes France and the Edict of Nanes is revoked; or the UNI falls.