Spanish King Ferdinand VII escapes to New Espanha

[Lusitania]

When Napoleon invaded Espanha, the Spanish monarchy and court attempted to emulate the Portuguese and escape to the new world. But he was captured and spent the rest of the War inprisoned in France.

What would of happened if he did escape?

Would the presence of the Spanish government in New Spain had led to a unification of the Spanish colonies and like the case of the Portuguese when they declared their independence they stayed together?

 

[Niko Malaka]

Only one little remark. He was not captured. His advisors recomended him fled to New Spain, but finally he decided to accept the "invitation" of Napoleon to have an interview in Bayonne.

So, if Fernando VII goes to New spain, probably the situation would be similar to the portuguese-brazilian case since the legal traditions about sovereignity were similar in both iberian countries and their empires. The only difference, maybe, could be that in the time of independence (or autonomy or whatever happens in TTL) every viceroyalty and perhaps some capitanías would take their own path. But with the hispanic monarchy still "alive" in the colonies, I think that three, four or five great states in the spanish America are feasible. Now the problems would be in the peninsula.

 

[Lusitania]

Only one little remark. He was not captured. His advisors recomended him fled to New Spain, but finally he decided to accept the "invitation" of Napoleon to have an interview in Bayonne.

So, if Fernando VII goes to New spain, probably the situation would be similar to the portuguese-brazilian case since the legal traditions about sovereignity were similar in both iberian countries and their empires. The only difference, maybe, could be that in the time of independence (or autonomy or whatever happens in TTL) every viceroyalty and perhaps some capitanías would take their own path. But with the hispanic monarchy still "alive" in the colonies, I think that three, four or five great states in the spanish America are feasible. Now the problems would be in the peninsula.

I really liked your thinking, does anyone else have anything else to add to this.

 

[Faeelin]

Only one little remark. He was not captured. His advisors recomended him fled to New Spain, but finally he decided to accept the "invitation" of Napoleon to have an interview in Bayonne.

If the King flees, would Joseph look even more like a French pawn? Hrmm.

 

[Lusitania]

If the King flees, would Joseph look even more like a French pawn? Hrmm.

Could Napoleon put someone on the Spanish throne, since all countries would recognize the Spanish king in Mexico City and not Madrid.

 

[Herr Frage]

Could Napoleon put someone on the Spanish throne, since all countries would recognize the Spanish king in Mexico City and not Madrid.

Probably, the King has still fled the mother country and left the throne there vacant. Fewer people will recognize the Boanparte regime and also the King not surrebndering will likely engender greater loyalty to the monarchy.

 

[Lusitania]

Probably, the King has still fled the mother country and left the throne there vacant. Fewer people will recognize the Boanparte regime and also the King not surrebndering will likely engender greater loyalty to the monarchy.

I have allways thought that this was the reason he placed his brother as King of Spain but never made anyone the King of Portugal.

 

[Umbric Man]

I think that three, four or five great states in the spanish America are feasible. Now the problems would be in the peninsula.

I agree. Aranda's plan in OTL and used to great effect in LTTW called for three distinct monarchies in Spanish America-Mexico, Tierrafirme (New Grenada), and Peru, with the Spanish Caribbean and the remainder of South America (the Rio de la Plata) as the remaining direct colonies under Madrid's control. Having a king directly there in Mexico City to ensure such a smooth transition to the Spanish equivalent of Dominion status for all the American lands means the plan and the three viceroyalties-upgraded-to-full-kingdoms plot seems quite feasible.

You might find Argentine resentment in OTL at being part of Peru still existing (as well as it was meant to remain tied to Madrid anyways according to Aranda), and so an Argentine kingdom exist to make the Spanish-speaking states rise to four, but the Caribbean might yet remain part of New Spain/Mexico.

 

[Condottiero]

What would be the impact of the liberal constitution of 1812?

With the Spanish king in Mexico city we have two possibilities:

* Instead of a liberal constitution in Cadiz, we have a conservative one in Mexico acknowledging the american hispanic kingdoms,

* Two constitutive assemblies create two different constitutions a liberal constitution in Cadiz, and an antiliberal constitution in Mexico. This could lead to a situation similar to OTL Portugal: the monarchy taking root in America and a republica of Spain being created in Europe.

 

[Niko Malaka]

If the King flees, would Joseph look even more like a French pawn? Hrmm.

Probably. The first problem that Joseph I faced was that most of Ferdinand VII subjects considered the abdications of Bayonne were illegal since the king can't abdicate without the consent of the Nation represented in the General States (Cortes Generales in the spanish tradition). But after all, Ferdinand VII had given his rights to his father, and his father (Charles IV) to Napoleon, who gave the rights to his brother, so the Joseph's loyals (called "afrancesados") had some legal controversy to justify themselves. With Ferdinand VII free and safe, there isn't even that possibility.

Originally Posted by Condottiero

What would be the impact of the liberal constitution of 1812?



With the Spanish king in Mexico city we have two possibilities:

* Instead of a liberal constitution in Cadiz, we have a conservative one in Mexico acknowledging the american hispanic kingdoms,

* Two constitutive assemblies create two different constitutions a liberal constitution in Cadiz, and an antiliberal constitution in Mexico. This could lead to a situation similar to OTL Portugal: the monarchy taking root in America and a republica of Spain being created in Europe.

I agree. In my opinion, probably the Cortes de Cádiz are still going to take place and a liberal constitution adopted. The spanish liberals saw very clear that the war of liberation, the absence of the king and the growing so-called "Movimiento Nacional" was the perfect oportunity to achieve their goals. The absolutists in the Junta Central were easily overruned by the liberal maneuvers behind the scene that concluded in the convocatory of Cortes. So, it seems that there was a strong determination and well prepared plan to capitalize the crisis in favour of the liberalism. Also, there is a great possibility to the non existence of the "Junta de Regencia" in TTL, or at least a less determinant one since the king has still his own voice so, there is even less opposition (in the spanish ad-hoc governative organs at the time, not necesarilly in the society and in the whole empire) to the liberal intentions, with figures like the bishop of Orense without political significancy.

The question, then, is how TTL political climate can change the things. We have, as I say above, a king with his own voice, and it's known that Ferdinand VII wasn't the best friend of liberalism. If the king denys legitimacy to the Cortes and the Constitution from Mexico City, it can be a complete failure or, in the contrary, radicalize the constituent movement and follow the portuguese way but in fast forward. In that case Napoleon could have a true reason to call them jacobins as he said in OTL. We can't discard, of course, a civil war breaking once the french are expeled, or even during the War of Independence, in Spain we are able to do that. I wonder also what could be the attitude of the american liberals towards both constitutions (the antiliberal one in the Indias and the liberal in the Peninsula) and also if TTL Constitución de Cádiz would have the panhispanic vocation that had in OTL.


Cheers.

 

[Condottiero]

Given how the liberation movements took place in the Americas, this situation could lead to something really weird:

* In the Peninsula: the lower classes supporting a liberal constitution against the king and the upper classes,

* In the Americas: the lower classes (mostly amerindians) supporting the king against the upper classes (the creoles and people of spanish origin) and independence.

 

[Faeelin]

The question, then, is how TTL political climate can change the things. We have, as I say above, a king with his own voice, and it's known that Ferdinand VII wasn't the best friend of liberalism. If the king denys legitimacy to the Cortes and the Constitution from Mexico City, it can be a complete failure or, in the contrary, radicalize the constituent movement and follow the portuguese way but in fast forward. In that case Napoleon could have a true reason to call them jacobins as he said in OTL. We can't discard, of course, a civil war breaking once the french are expeled, or even during the War of Independence, in Spain we are able to do that. I wonder also what could be the attitude of the american liberals towards both constitutions (the antiliberal one in the Indias and the liberal in the Peninsula) and also if TTL Constitución de Cádiz would have the panhispanic vocation that had in OTL.

It depends. If the King is in the New World, I wonder if he will be more eager to get the New World, with all its power and might, to step forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old.

Hrmm.

 

[Archangel]

IMO, if Ferdinand VII escaped to Nueva España, chances are that the Spanish monarchy could have survived in there, whether Spain becomes a Republic or not, but even in that case, Nueva España is too large to stay united. Peripheral areas not represented in a Vice-Kingdom might break away.

 

[Lusitania]

For a detailed explanation of the political, cultural and other implication of this look at the TL of my signature below