Sultan Erdogan: Arab Spring ATL
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Turkey has not officially pursued a nuclear weapon but does have a program going. Turkey does already have 60-70 nuclear weapons on its territory as part of NATO's sharing program.
But for how long? I think that Turkey's position in the NATO is becoming more and more difficult, as they are suporting nuclear armed Iran against Israel.
I say this because I think that, confronted with what they see as an existential threat, Israel might try attacking Iran alone, maybe with Saudi covert support.
Turkey's position with NATO currently is not very good. This however will change a bit over the next few posts i'm planning
I could definitely see Israel taking offensive action if Iran does anything more aggressive.
guinazacity
Banned
I definitely can see Israel going a bit crazy over that.
But I want to see a balance of power between Israel/iran-turkey, with mutual nuclear annihilation as the guarantee.
But I want to see a balance of power between Israel/iran-turkey, with mutual nuclear annihilation as the guarantee.
Part 29:The Perfect Distraction
With tensions in the Middle East running high a distraction was needed to clam the situation down. The distraction came in the form of the February Ukrainian Revolution that swept President Viktor Yanukovych from power. Yanukovych the pro Russian ruler of Ukrainian was deposed in a pro western revolt. Russian President Putin referred to the revolution as a “coup” organized by "Neo-Nazis" and vowed to protect ethnic Russians in the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.
The United States and European nations quickly switched their focus from the Iranian issue to Ukraine. NATO saw this as an opportunity to expand its influence eastward at the expense of Russia. Turkey was also transfixed on its northern neighbor and in response to the crisis put its navy on high alert. Erdogan was particularly concerned about the Muslim Crimean Tartars who he viewed as his brethren.
In late March, Russia took the aggressive step of invading and annexing the Crimean. Putin needed this key peninsula in order to secure his Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol. The Russians also began to sponsor a series of uprisings in the Ukrainian eastern provinces. The new Ukrainian government was unable to effectively cope with these Russian advances.
Erdogan was horrified at Russia’s moves, he feared that the Tartars would be crushed and forcibly assimilated into Russian culture. Erdogan as the protector and guardian of Islam could not allow this to happen, The Russian advance also threatened the balance of power in the region and Turkish dominance over the Black Sea.
With tensions in the Middle East running high a distraction was needed to clam the situation down. The distraction came in the form of the February Ukrainian Revolution that swept President Viktor Yanukovych from power. Yanukovych the pro Russian ruler of Ukrainian was deposed in a pro western revolt. Russian President Putin referred to the revolution as a “coup” organized by "Neo-Nazis" and vowed to protect ethnic Russians in the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.
The United States and European nations quickly switched their focus from the Iranian issue to Ukraine. NATO saw this as an opportunity to expand its influence eastward at the expense of Russia. Turkey was also transfixed on its northern neighbor and in response to the crisis put its navy on high alert. Erdogan was particularly concerned about the Muslim Crimean Tartars who he viewed as his brethren.
In late March, Russia took the aggressive step of invading and annexing the Crimean. Putin needed this key peninsula in order to secure his Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol. The Russians also began to sponsor a series of uprisings in the Ukrainian eastern provinces. The new Ukrainian government was unable to effectively cope with these Russian advances.
Erdogan was horrified at Russia’s moves, he feared that the Tartars would be crushed and forcibly assimilated into Russian culture. Erdogan as the protector and guardian of Islam could not allow this to happen, The Russian advance also threatened the balance of power in the region and Turkish dominance over the Black Sea.
Part 30:Sultan Erdogan vs Tsar Putin
Erdogan in early April flew to Baku for a meeting with Putin. Erdogan had talked to the leader of the Crimean Tartars by phone and got a full account of the situation there, he hope to take up his concerns with the Russian leader. Putin however arrived late to the meeting and was in an unhelpful mood. He did not take Turkish concerns seriously and almost laughed at several issues brought up at the meeting. Erdogan was furious he handed Putin a full list of Russia’s human rights abuses before storming out.
Arriving back at Istanbul, Erdogan over the next few weeks took a number of steps to counter Putin. He withdrew his ambassador from Russia and closed the Boshperus to Russian ships. He offered to supply Ukraine with military equipment and even contemplated arming the Tartars and Chechens.
Erdogan also for the first time in almost a year asked NATO and the United States for help. The Western powers were eager to rekindle their relationship with Turkey and sent a number of warships to bolster NATO’s presence in the Black Sea.
Erdogan in early April flew to Baku for a meeting with Putin. Erdogan had talked to the leader of the Crimean Tartars by phone and got a full account of the situation there, he hope to take up his concerns with the Russian leader. Putin however arrived late to the meeting and was in an unhelpful mood. He did not take Turkish concerns seriously and almost laughed at several issues brought up at the meeting. Erdogan was furious he handed Putin a full list of Russia’s human rights abuses before storming out.
Arriving back at Istanbul, Erdogan over the next few weeks took a number of steps to counter Putin. He withdrew his ambassador from Russia and closed the Boshperus to Russian ships. He offered to supply Ukraine with military equipment and even contemplated arming the Tartars and Chechens.
Erdogan also for the first time in almost a year asked NATO and the United States for help. The Western powers were eager to rekindle their relationship with Turkey and sent a number of warships to bolster NATO’s presence in the Black Sea.
Look how the Sultan towers over Putin
Any options for Erdogan regarding Ukraine?
Any options for Erdogan regarding Ukraine?
Frankly, it just seems more like a stunt to get Turkey back in the good graces of NATO and I doubt anything substantial is actually going to take place.
Arming the Chechens and the Tatars is a dangerous move for the Turks, not to mention closing the Bosphorus straits, as the Russians would probably retaliate by accelerating armament of the Kurds, both in Turkey and in Syria as well. Erdogan has to know this, and as I imagine he already has enough on his plate by trying to keep Syria stable, maintaining their alliance with Iran and the deterioration of relations with Israel.
Arming the Chechens and the Tatars is a dangerous move for the Turks, not to mention closing the Bosphorus straits, as the Russians would probably retaliate by accelerating armament of the Kurds, both in Turkey and in Syria as well. Erdogan has to know this, and as I imagine he already has enough on his plate by trying to keep Syria stable, maintaining their alliance with Iran and the deterioration of relations with Israel.
Part 31: Constantinople or Istanbul?
Throughout April and May violence steady increased throughout the Ukraine. The Tartars were suppressed and Russia threatened to invade eastern Ukraine.
In the Middle East meanwhile Israel and Iran were settling into a Cold War of sorts, with both sides being held in check by mutual assured destruction. Iran as well further increased tensions by renewing its claims to a number of small islands in the Persian Gulf currently owned by the United Arab Emirates.
Further upsetting news came out of Greece, The Greek May elections had gone well for the far right Golden Dawn Party. In Central Greece and the Peloponnesus the group received 15% of the vote making them roughly tied for the second place.
Erdogan saw these latest events in Europe as a major threat to his Islamic nation. He viewed it as a systemic war as Islam launched these Eastern Orthodox power. The Turkish leader was determined to show these upstarts the power of Turkey.
At the end of May Erdgoan held lavish celebrations for the anniversary of Constantinople's fall to Turkey. He reminded his people of Sultan Mehmed’s glorious victory over the Greek Byzantines.
Throughout April and May violence steady increased throughout the Ukraine. The Tartars were suppressed and Russia threatened to invade eastern Ukraine.
In the Middle East meanwhile Israel and Iran were settling into a Cold War of sorts, with both sides being held in check by mutual assured destruction. Iran as well further increased tensions by renewing its claims to a number of small islands in the Persian Gulf currently owned by the United Arab Emirates.
Further upsetting news came out of Greece, The Greek May elections had gone well for the far right Golden Dawn Party. In Central Greece and the Peloponnesus the group received 15% of the vote making them roughly tied for the second place.
Erdogan saw these latest events in Europe as a major threat to his Islamic nation. He viewed it as a systemic war as Islam launched these Eastern Orthodox power. The Turkish leader was determined to show these upstarts the power of Turkey.
At the end of May Erdgoan held lavish celebrations for the anniversary of Constantinople's fall to Turkey. He reminded his people of Sultan Mehmed’s glorious victory over the Greek Byzantines.
Well that will certainly go well considering Turkey's rise to power had aided Golden Dawn's popularity. Great timeline by the way
Much thanks for the comment
I'll do an update on the situation in North Africa soonish.
Libya is actually doing pretty well. With Turkish support the country is developing into a somewhat functioning democracy.
In OTL Egyptian President Sisi supported rogue Libyan General Haftar, against the Tripoli government, which led to the civil war we have today. With Egypt still under Morsi the situation is much more stable. Also no ISIS in Libya, yippy!!
Thanks for the positive feedback everyone.
Part 32: Fall of Ottoman Syria
The Syrian Presidential Election had effectively been narrowed down to two competitors Sadiq Al-Azm and Manaf Tlass.
Sadiq al Azm was running under the banner of modernization and secularism. He promised to rebuild Syria and prevent discrimination against minorities. While campaign he spoke of figures such as former Syrian Prime Minster Lufti al Haffar, the man who build the modern public water system in Damascus. Al Azm, while still close to Turkey, favored bringing an end to the occupation and wanted Syria to create its own future.
Manaf Tlass meanwhile most represented Turkish interests in Syria. He had formed a close friendship with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Tlass favored keeping Turkish soldiers in the country longer for security reasons. His campaign had been plagued by allegations corruption but overall he was still a very popular figure.
The Presidential election was held on June 3rd, 2014. In a close contest, al Azm edged out a narrow victory with 51% of the vote.
The Syrian Presidential Election had effectively been narrowed down to two competitors Sadiq Al-Azm and Manaf Tlass.
Sadiq al Azm was running under the banner of modernization and secularism. He promised to rebuild Syria and prevent discrimination against minorities. While campaign he spoke of figures such as former Syrian Prime Minster Lufti al Haffar, the man who build the modern public water system in Damascus. Al Azm, while still close to Turkey, favored bringing an end to the occupation and wanted Syria to create its own future.
Manaf Tlass meanwhile most represented Turkish interests in Syria. He had formed a close friendship with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Tlass favored keeping Turkish soldiers in the country longer for security reasons. His campaign had been plagued by allegations corruption but overall he was still a very popular figure.
The Presidential election was held on June 3rd, 2014. In a close contest, al Azm edged out a narrow victory with 51% of the vote.
That's actually a photo of Erdogan falling from a horse. I'm surprised he was alright.
Well, this is a reversal for Turkey, but provided that certain cards are played right, this hardly means a long term problem for Turkish influence in the country. If anything, this may slightly alleviate tensions with Israel.
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