The Manhattan Project: Or, How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the ICBM

That there were still Americans and Koreans fighting on the peninsula seems to have eluded inclusion in the statement. Those fighting in the Taegu Pocket were the recipients of whatever silver lining came out of the black cloud surrounding the Pusan Evacuation. The In Min Gun drive to capture Pusan and the Howitzer bombardment of the highways within the former Pusan Perimeter relieved pressure on the Pocket, allowing the 1st Cavalry Division, survivors of the 24th Infantry, and the Korean soldiers to set up strong defensive positions. UN aircraft had gained full control of the air war by this point, and regular supply missions flown from Japan using aircraft and pilots experienced from the Berlin Blockade ensured the soldiers in the Pocket didn’t lack for ammunition and food.

They fought on as the post-crisis political situation shook out in Washington. In what became known as the “Korean Massacre,” President Truman wholly reorganized the military structure behind the way the war was being fought. MacArthur, who had enjoyed almost total independence from the Joint Chiefs of Staff and higher military authority, suddenly found himself on a short leash. He might have been protected by his close ties with the Republican political establishment, which kept his position secure, but those of his staff and subordinates were much more exposed. Ned Almond was the first to go, replaced by Gen. Matthew Ridgway, widely considered to be the best general officer in the U.S. Army. Ridgway had fought in WWII, rising to command of an army composed of several U.S. parachute infantry divisions. He was much more independent than the sycophantic Almond, and answered to the Joint Chiefs, not MacArthur in Tokyo.

MacArthur also lost Charles Willoughby and other staff officers as the Joint Chiefs, in an unusual move, directly manipulated MacArthur’s staff. Truman, too, made moves to shield himself from accusations that he was responsible for the Pusan defeat. Secretary of Defense Johnson was unceremoniously shoved out the door, replaced by George Marshall, the WWII Army Chief of Staff, postwar Secretary of State, and creator of the Marshall Plan. Marshall was one of a handful of men who had greater military reknown than MacArthur, and he was placed in a position where he and Omar Bradley, one of the others, could ride herd on MacArthur. With these moves, Truman felt he had pulled MacArthur’s teeth without touching the man who still enjoyed enormous public acclaim and media attention.

As tricky as pulling off this reorganization was, it paled in comparison with the problems Truman faced with the failure of the Howitzers to prevent the fall of Pusan. That failure showed missile bombardment — at least as it existed in 1950 — could not stop a determined conventional military force from attaining its objectives. The immediate fear was that the Soviet Union might capitalize on this revelation by attacking Western Europe. If it did, there was very little the United States could do to respond, other than bombarding Soviet cities. As great as this fear was, it wasn’t borne out by events. As we now know, thanks to documents released from Soviet archives after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1984, Stalin fully intended to attack Western Europe — but only after he secured his political backing with a new purge. The orchestrated “Doctors’ Plot” of early 1951 was the spark for this, and the purge lasted until Stalin’s death in October 1952. At the time, his death was thought to be due to a stroke; subsequent revelations have cast doubt upon that, with alternate theories ranging from silent assassination to slow poisoning. Regardless of the means of his death, Stalin’s passing resulted in the cancellation of invasion planning as a new generation of Soviet leaders came to the fore.

His preoccupation with preparing and executing the purge didn’t prevent Stalin from pursuing a more confrontational attitude toward the United States and the West in the 25 months between the failure of the Howitzer bombardment and his death. Where he had deliberately delayed sending Soviet “volunteer” pilots to aid the North Koreans before the attack, he reversed course and sent more than 250 new Soviet aircraft south. Where he had restrained China from aggression toward the Matsu Islands, he now encouraged action against them. In Europe, he visibly bolstered the Warsaw Pact. And around the world, Soviet diplomats and agents supported anticolonial movements with money and weapons. These found fertile ground in places that viewed America’s missile attacks as nothing other than reckless escalation.

In addition to the threat of Soviet attack, there were political recriminations to deal with. Although the Howitzers were widely seen as “the weapon that won the war” in regards to WWII, their impotence in Korea caused at least a few voices to be raised about whether the $6 billion (1945 dollars) cost of the Manhattan Project and the $7 billion spent since 1945 on guided missiles had simply been thrown down the drain. These complaints were few, though they were notable for being among the first raised against the American missile program. Far more serious was the damage to the deterrence effect provided by America’s missile arsenal.

To cover the failure of the Howitzers near Pusan, Truman authorized a strike against Pyongyang to show the world that American missiles were as strong as ever — if used properly. It was a move Truman later agonized over, saying he had “signed an order resulting in the deaths of so many, just to prove a point.” It wasn’t as simple as that — he was pressured by dozens of Senators and Congressmen to launch such an attack, and MacArthur had formally requested it, giving Truman clear grounds for doing so. In his memoirs, Truman attempted to justify the enormously controversial move, stating that it was necessary to protect the soldiers fighting in Taegu and to prevent the further decay of deterrence.

Postwar historians seeking alternative explanations have embraced the idea that Truman was merely attempting to cover up his personal and political failures in conducting the war. They argue that the approach of the 1950 elections was a strong force pushing Truman toward decisive action in Korea. Others have pointed to the immense personal strain Truman was under as he agonized about the thousands of Americans killed in Korea and the bloody retreat from Pusan. In several memos issued in the final week of September, he also expressed concerns that the Taegu Pocket might turn into another, far bloodier Pusan.

Nevertheless, it was with extreme reluctance that he issued the order for a 400-missile strike on Sept. 27. Eighty-six percent of the Howitzers launched from Fort Goddard on that date — 344 in all — impacted in the city in late evening, bringing 3 kilotons of explosive power to bear on the capital of North Korea.

The effects were much as it was at Hiroshima and Kokura. Pyongyang is a port city, and though it contains some hills, they are low and rolling, not at all like those that blocked much of the damage from the Pusan bombardment. No great firestorm was triggered, as in the first two cities destroyed by missile bombardment, largely because the construction of Korean homes lent itself to conflagration much less. Still, 19,000 North Koreans were killed, and approximately 45,000 injured by the largest missile strike conducted to that point. North Korea’s largest city and capital was wrecked and its utility as a logistics hub was diminished for months. The reputation of strategic missile bombardment was partially restored, but at enormous cost, not only in lives, but also in the precedent it set for later use. It had one great effect on the political situation in Washington — Truman no longer had to worry about the charge that he was soft on communism.
 
Interesting... so not only does Stalin die earlier here, but the *'Doctors' Plot' is shifted even more backwards, allowing it to run further?
 
I wonder if Stalin's death a year earlier actually contributes to an earlier demise of the USSR.

As for Truman...maybe it's not so surprising, given the enormous pressure he's under-and he did use the atomic bomb twice in OTL.
 
Well, Truman is far more likely to be looked upon unfavorably in this TL than IRL. (Perhaps Henry Wallace and Robert Taft may be seen in a more favorable light...)
 
Though I have serious issues with the technological handling of the ICBM's, especially their production numbers, accuracy, and damage caused, I still have to admit that this is an entertaining timeline to check in on.
 
He did have to deal with political repercussions of the attack, however. The Soviet Union was quick to capitalize on the “frightful escalation” of the war on the Korean Peninsula, and several countries that had considered contributing soldiers to the UN effort rescinded their offers of assistance. In the United States, President Truman was criticized heavily in the popular press and by Republicans whose outrage was quieted only when it became widely known that MacArthur had requested the attack himself. In addition, the continued survival of the Taegu Pocket was a powerful argument in favor of the idea that the Pyongyang attack wasn’t simply a desperate action by Truman to show the war wasn’t lost. As long as it held, Truman could say that the attack was crucially needed to relieve pressure on the encircled UN force.

The pocket’s existence was a close-run thing. Up until the day he was relieved of command, Ned Almond was issuing orders for an aerial evacuation, using the U.S. Air Force’s large cargo capacity to bring Americans and Koreans out of the pocket. Gen. Ridgway’s assumption of command on Sept. 19 didn’t change that idea. But the attack on Pyongyang on Sept. 27 and the increasing effectiveness of UN air power over Korea relieved the pressure on the pocket and gave Ridgway an opportunity for one of the most unusual battles in American military history. On Sept. 29, Ridgway reversed his previous actions almost entirely. By this date, the soldiers in the Taegu Pocket had largely recovered from the disastrous collapse of the Pusan Perimeter. The Howitzer bombardments had given them critical time to set up defenses and create an aerial artery to Japan. Although the soldiers in the pocket were battered, they were no longer broken. They could fight.

On Sept. 29, during a visit to the pocket, Ridgway discovered that fact for himself. In a whirlwind eight hours of planning and discussion, he reversed the flow of the aerial artery. Instead of taking men and equipment out of Korea, it began bringing them into the country and into the fighting. Ridgway was an airborne infantry commander by background, and he saw how valuable a foothold on the peninsula was to the war effort. Furthermore, he knew Truman was coming under increasing pressure to resolve the war, even if it meant unfavorable terms for South Korea. A total evacuation of the peninsula might force a peace deal that would cripple American prestige around the world.

Balanced against this, Ridgway knew that with every day that passed, the force available to him grew stronger, while that of the North Koreans weakened. More aircraft were taken out of mothballs and flown across the Pacific daily, and recalled reservists and new draftees were massing in Japan. MacArthur had planned a grand amphibious assault halfway up the west coast of the Korean Peninsula, but the Pusan Evacuation had cancelled that idea. Ridgway loved the idea of striking deep behind enemy lines, as MacArthur’s plan would do, but he also knew it wouldn’t work without a force on the peninsula to pin down the North Koreans and keep them from reacting easily to an amphibious attack.

Thus, he saw the maintenance of the Taegu Pocket as a critical military need. Though he recognized that need, the actual implementation required an airborne lift greater than the Berlin Airlift just two years earlier. Worsening the problem was the weather. As fall turned to winter, it brought fog, clouds, and precipitation that limited flying time. These factors were countered by the use of an instrument landing system, the use of which had been greatly refined during the cloudy winters of besieged Berlin. Only one permanent airstrip existed within the Taegu Pocket before the siege began, and three others were hurriedly scraped from the hard earth. Crude facilities were erected as best as could be made available under the close quarters and enemy pressure.

The Koreans did what they could to stem the flow of supplies, but their heavy equipment had mostly been destroyed or simply worn out in the drive down the peninsula and in the final push to crush Pusan. There were few heavy antiaircraft guns available, and those that made their presence known were quickly silenced by UN fighter-bombers running Iron Hand missions specifically reserved for targeting AA emplacements. A far greater threat to the transport pilots were the difficult routes they had to fly, often involving steep ascents and descents to avoid Korean hills. More allied pilots died in unfortunate encounters with Korean soil than they did in meetings with North Korean ordnance. Despite all the hazards against them, the pilots of Ridgway’s grand aerial transportation armada kept Taegu’s defenders fed and supplied.

That didn’t mean they lived a life of luxury. Occasional warm meals were enough to keep them fed, and enough ammunition came through to keep the North Koreans at bay, but the men in the Taegu Pocket were hard-pressed as no American force had been since Bastogne. The real relief would have to come from the sea, and it was a race against time to prepare that attack.

In Washington, the uncertainty following the Korean Massacre and the American attack on Pyongyang helped bring forth two policy documents that would set the course for American actions through much of the Cold War. The first of these, NSC-68, was a State Department document. Drafted before the outbreak of the Korean War but embraced by Truman in the wake of the Pusan Evacuation, NSC-68 called for a large peacetime military spending in order to defend the Western Hemisphere, American allies, their lines of communication, and other interests in the event of full-scale war between the U.S. and Soviet Union. This would give the U.S. time to build a force capable of taking the war to the Soviet Union directly, either through simple bombardment or (as was suggested by the document) outright invasion.

It proposed a full-scale reversal of pre-Korean defense cutbacks and recommended at the least a tripling of the $13.5 billion Defense Department budget for 1950. That much had already been accomplished by the time Truman signed off on the document in late September. Supplemental spending plans required by the war effort designated at least $60 billion for the U.S. military, and more would come in later years. NSC-68 was remarkable in that it proposed to maintain this spending in order to contain the Soviet military. The failure of the Howitzer in Korea showed Americans that missiles alone were not enough to do the job, and thus this option seemed the logical choice for Truman.
 

maverick

Banned
Oooh...no military cuts, a policy that might continue through the 1950s...foreshadowing of an Eisenhowerless decade? or merely an Eisenhower that doesn't cut the military budget, or at least try to?
 
Oooh...no military cuts, a policy that might continue through the 1950s...foreshadowing of an Eisenhowerless decade? or merely an Eisenhower that doesn't cut the military budget, or at least try to?

I think that would depend on who Truman's running mate would be in 1952, if he decides to run again. I suppose the question for the Republicans would be who to pick in '56.

The long-term consequences of this policy could have an impact on Southeast Asia and Cuba as well (no Cuban revolution, or a failed one?)

Maybe the Huey and the M-16 get introduced earlier...

Speaking of which, here's a list of cancelled military projects.
 
All the funding increases won't necessarily stop Fidel or Ho. Eisenhower may be pushed aside...but Taft and those with him may become more influential...
 
Yeah. I just discovered this TL kudos of this, and I'd love to see more.
I hope you liked the trailer. I'm sure Amerigo could add a lot of stuff, though the long quote of Parsons's just begs to be included. (OTL, he recited that poem a lot, both prior to rocket launches and at parties (sometimes while beer bottles were thrown at him), and ITTL, it's likely entered the popular consciousness like OTL Oppenheimer's quote from the Bhagavad-Gita.)
 
Yup. I pictured that in my head, and it creeped me out in a good way.

Thanks for the anecdote about Parsons. To me, that's one of the cool thing about history, discovering all these vignettes.

Amerigo was last on in November - not too long ago - so my fingers are crossed about him updating. Any idea what his plans are?
 
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