What if Francesco II Sforza, the last member of his family to rule Milan, lived longer (say until the age of 60) and had an adult son at the time of his death? How would Italy be affected by a Lombardy that retains its independence instead of falling completely into the Habsburg orbit? What about the later Italian Wars?
The Sforza dynasty endures?
- Thread starter Vinization
- Start date
The Sforza dynasty continuing probably means it ends up like Tuscany, as the Habsburgs support the Sforza as a bulwark against French influence (the French are likely to cite the Orleans claim if and when they invade Milan, regardless of the Sforza dynasty surviving), but if and when the dynasty dies out it is likely to be claimed by the Emperor regardless, much as happened to Mantua.
Beyond that? Well it all depends. Historically the Savoy savored Milan- if the Sforza go extinct, there might be a dynastic claim which the Savoy could use, or vice versa. I would think that, post Napoleon, one might potentially see an Italian confederation or perhaps a Lombard/Padanian state emerge as a bulwark against France... it really depends on how the intervening centuries go.
Beyond that? Well it all depends. Historically the Savoy savored Milan- if the Sforza go extinct, there might be a dynastic claim which the Savoy could use, or vice versa. I would think that, post Napoleon, one might potentially see an Italian confederation or perhaps a Lombard/Padanian state emerge as a bulwark against France... it really depends on how the intervening centuries go.
...not really? At least not at the time of the Italian Wars.
Yes, the Bourbons don't have it and the claim went to Spain then to the Savoys
The peace of Cateau Cambresis would re-establish them, and with the Valois relinquishing all claims there would be finally some security for the dynasty. A son of Francesco would be a prime candidate for a Habsburg bride(Emperor Ferdinand I. married two of his daughters to italian princes)
Given his fragile health, I believe until 60 is kinda hard. However, the timing of his death was cruel: he had just married and the economy of Milan was slowly recovering. The fact that he married a 13-year-old Christina of Denmark did not exactly help his chances to sire an heir. He thought he was to be engaged to her elder sister, though. Charles V did not allow this but maybe something happens and Francesco II marries Dorothea in 1534. True, Dorotea is 14, but say that Francesco recovers from his illness in 1535 and Dorotea delivers a healthy boy in 1536. Say that Francesco earns some 5 extra years, giving more time to the Milanese economy to recover. Then Christina might be regent for her son Ludovico (?). Tricky, the boy will need to be way better than his father in the military (Francesco Maria della Rovere openly called the latter a coward) but it could be done.
Actually, Mantua was annexed to the empire because the ruler sided with the French. So, unless a Sforza does that (only way I can see them siding with the Frech being if the Valois go extinct), in all likelihood, Milan is safe.
I blame Emperor Ferdinand I for this one. He was supposed to name Felipe II as vicar of Italy OTL but refused to do it for fear that Felipe would challenge Maximilian II for the empire. So he named the duke of Savoy as vicar instead. This naming to the vicariate is where Savoy's claims of precedence in Italy as well as their designs on Milan originate. So, no Sforza extinction means no transfer of the vicariate
If the Sforza dynasty survives, it might make a claim for the vicariat, Pavia being the capital of the kingdom and all that. Being married to a niece of Ferdinand I. wouldn´t hurt either
Milan had the vicariate since the days of Gian Galeazzo Visconti who received it from Emperor Sigmund AIUI
One has to consider that it also was possibly a move to placate the papacy. A vicariat of Italy connected with the kingdoms of Naples and Sicily was NOT high on their wish list
AIUI it was only carved off AFTER the Sforza went extinct. So likely the Farnese stay in Camerino and - if possible - Maria of Guimarães ends up as duchess of Milan instead of Parma.
How? Mantua married the heiress. If we simply have Francesco surviving to father a kid with his OTL wife, then Monferrat is going to Mantua instead.
1. No. it fell to the Papal States in 1521.
2. I was not talking about the Palaiologos inheritance, but a surviving Sforza line will be interesting to the other Italian houses and after 1569 would surely be interested to keep Montferrat in it´s sphere of influence and inherit it through a marriage(if ITL Mantova doesn´t side with France...if it does Milano as the vicar of Italy would be in it´s rights to annex it, as in the OT)
2. I was not talking about the Palaiologos inheritance, but a surviving Sforza line will be interesting to the other Italian houses and after 1569 would surely be interested to keep Montferrat in it´s sphere of influence and inherit it through a marriage(if ITL Mantova doesn´t side with France...if it does Milano as the vicar of Italy would be in it´s rights to annex it, as in the OT)