1515-1518: New political balance in Christendom
The birth of Charles IX and Mary’s regency has an impact in the political balance in Christendom. The frail balance that was settled with the Peace treaties of 1513 and 1514 which ended the Fourth Italian War is confirmed.
The Habsburg are among those who benefit from the French situation as they won’t have serious rivals for at least a decade or two, which would allow them to fortify their power and influence in Europe, especially in Italy or in Spain when Charles of Ghent becomes king of Aragon and Castile in 1516. Maximilian I takes the opportunity to fortify his position in Verona, a place he took to Venice in 1509 and creating the duchy of Verona in 1518, which allows him to have a foothold in the Italian peninsula. It also allows him to achieve a matrimonial move through his niece, Suzanna of Bavaria, who marries Sigismund I of Poland and Lithuania in 1518. Through the Congress of Vienna of 1515, Louis II of Hungary is betrothed to Mary of Habsburg while his sister is betrothed to either Charles of Ghent or his brother Ferdinand.
Before his death, Fernando II of Aragon benefits from the French succession as it gives him the opportunity to force Navarrese to acknowledge his control of the southern part of their kingdom.
Charles of Ghent fortify his ties with France, but also follows his aunt’s advice and build ties with England (1) which concludes with the Treaty of Dover in 1517 in line with the Eternal Peace signed in London the same year.
In England, Charles IX’s birth is greeted by Henry VIII both in joy and envy, as he is happy that his favourite sister has a royal child while it reminds him that he doesn’t have any heir in spite of his wife’s four pregnancies since their marriage. The birth of his daughter Mary in February 1516 assuages only a bit his bitterness and envy as he still doesn’t have a male heir. The fact he has been chosen to be the new French king’s godfather makes him travel to France and become the first English king to be in Rheims. It also allows him to meet again his sister and to show his prestige and strength. In the following years, he strengthens his ties with France and relies on his new chancellor, Thomas Wolsey, to achieve it, especially since the man was the one who contributed to the 1514 Treaty of London. The English king and his chancellor also decide to be the champion of a diplomatic path valuing peace between the countries and preventing wars. Their approach results in the Eternal Peace Treaty signed in London in the summer of 1517 between twenty realms and lands, including England, France, Spain, the Holy Roman Empire or the Papacy. The Treaty that is finally signed is a non-aggression pact between the signatories, but also a military alliance as each signatory will help an attacked member. It also helps to solve remaining issues, like the return of Tournai to France by England or the acknowledgement of Maximilian Sforza by the French Regency. These diplomatic moves also result in the nomination of Wolsey as the papal legate in England.
The news of Charles IX’s birth arrives in Scotland in the autumn of 1515. It brings new trouble in Scotland as the birth of the king and the change of regent questions the legitimacy of a French Alliance party. However, while Albany and his allies are in a quandary as they don’t know if Mary will support them, Margaret is not in a better situation as only her new husband’s family and allies support her to regain the mantle of regent. It is worsened by the fact that Margaret learns the news when she arrived in England in September 1515. Both sides are in a stalemate and only a joint mediation of Henry VIII and of the French regency in early 1516 allow them to try finding a solution. In the end, a compromise is found in the autumn of 1516: Albany remains the regent, but a regency council is created in which Margaret can contribute. However, such a solution will quickly find its failures as each side try to be the dominant one in the regency while Albany tries to fortify his position and to renew the Auld Alliance with France. In the end, Albany manages to renew it thanks to the support Francis of Brittany in Mary’s court and the fact that Henry VIII would never marry his current heiress to James V. However, to avoid conflict with Henry VIII as England is officially allied with France, the regent also decides to assuage Henry VIII. Most of the talks occur during the 1517 Treaty of London, but Henry VIII through Wolsey, Mary and Albany signs the Treaty of Calais in the end of 1517 in which Scotland is allied with both France and England, acknowledging Margaret’s role in the regency council while making a promise of betrothal between a French princess and James V. In the same treaty, the idea of a betrothal between Henry VIII’s daughter and a French prince is raised, though it is held back in waiting the birth of Francis’s first male heir. While it settles a bit the Scottish issues on the diplomatic field, it doesn’t prevent the rivalries and quarrels between Albany and Margaret, though the main rivalry is between Albany and her husband, Archibald Douglas.
In Italy, a new political balance is rising. With a lesser French influence in the Peninsula, the Habsburg family and the Pope begin to extend their influence on the other city states. But another actor benefits from the French situation: the Swiss confederate. As they contributed to defeat the Frenchmen in 1512-1513, they become an important actor in the northern peninsula, especially since Maximilian Sforza has to repay them. As a result, while officially independent, the duchy of Milan becomes de facto a Swiss protectorate as the Swiss truly rule the land and determine its policy while controlling strategic valleys like Valtellina. Slowly, it creates resentment among the Milanese population who see them less like allies and more like impending foreigners. Maximilian Sforza however relies on them, employing Swiss as military forces to stabilize his rule. However, as the French threat is weakened, the duke also works to establish new relation with his neighbours and allies. Thanks to the influence of the cardinal of Sion, Matthäus Schiner, it is achieved through the treaty of Bergamo in February 1517. In this treaty, an alliance is acknowledged between the duchy and the Swiss cantons
Genoa benefits from the peace as it allows Ottaviano Fregoso to ensure his rule as the doge of the republic. His policies allow him to be re-elected in 1515 and even in 1517. During his rule, he manages to modernize the port of Genoa and to earn the support of many thanks to his magnanimity. His policies contribute to allow Genoa to rise against, though the struggles between
Albergo also thrive through peace. Ottaviano Fregoso strengthens his ties with the Papacy while the French Regency’s policy finally allows him to make his city an important partner of France from 1517.
Venice has to acknowledge the loss of Verona territory to Maximilian I as it is isolated in the diplomatic field. To counter the threat of the Habsburg and the stronger influence of the Papacy, Venice turns to France. The French regency’s policy allows Venice to become a trading partner and becomes its ally in the end of the decade.
The pope Leo X takes profit of the French withdrawal from Italy to strengthen his position in Italy, but also as the head of the Church. Thus, he gets back Parma in 1517 through the Treaty of Bergamo in which he helps the Duchy of Milan and the Swiss Confederation to find a agreement. It allows him to promote his project against the Turks. However, the war of Urbino (3) that occurs in 1517 hinders his efforts to prepare the crusade as it costs money and puts the pope under a bad light (4). As a result, it ruins the diplomatic efforts of Leo X. Moreover, the regency in France and the diplomatic efforts of Wolsey also affect his efforts for the expedition and to be the arbitrary of the conflicts between the different rulers. In the end he acknowledges the Treaty of London with some reluctance, as the mutual alliance between the signatories may be used against the Turks. In 1518, a treaty is signed between Charles I of Spain, Maximilian and him in 1518 in a military alliance against the Turks. During the same period, he is confronted by the rise of Martin Luther who denounces the abuse of the indulgence system. While he first disregards the matter as an imperial issue, he is also determined to see the German monk retracting from his position. But in spite of his papal bull requiring all Christians to believe in the Pope’s power to grant indulgences and the arguments of Cardinal Cajetan who encounters the German monk in Augsburg in October 1518, Martin Luther refuses to retract.
Charles III of Savoy benefits from Charles IX’s birth as it alleviates the French threat on his duchy, especially since Francis’s mother, Louise of Savoy, is his half-sister and claims the duchy as her inheritance. However, he loses in 1516 the support of Leo X with the death of his brother-in-law, Julian of Medici. It forces him to rely on his alliance with the Swiss Confederate, allowing them to fortify their influence on his duchy as the duke has a weak and hesitant personality, especially with Geneva who has a conflict with him since 1513 (5). This growing influence worries the duke, but he can’t decide to choose between France and Maximilian I of Habsburg as one is a regency he may rely on and the other the ruling Emperor of the HRE to whom he has allegiance.
The Swiss also strengthen their ties with Papacy thanks to the work of Cardinal Matthäus Schiner, the mastermind of the alliance with the Papal States. The cardinal of Sion has become one of the key figures of the Swiss Confederation thanks to the success of his diplomatic moves in the Fourth Italian War and its success. During this period, the cardinal encounters Erasmus in Basel in 1515, exchanging with him on the necessity of reforms for the Church. He also develops a correspondence with Ulrich Zwingli, a priest from Glarus he knew since the Fourth Italian War. While the two men disagree on the matter of Swiss mercenary policy, Zwingli being in opposition to the fact Swiss go fighting for others and to wars that aren’t tied to the defence of the land, the two men have in common their support of the papal alliance and the need of reforms for the Catholic Church. Through the letters, they developed a strong friendship. This correspondence keeps on while Zwingli becomes chaplain in the abbey of Einsiedeln. The rise of the Swiss Confederation also contributes to reinforce the ties between the different cantons and with the Three League Alliance.
Navarre is forced to acknowledge the loss of his southern part to Spain. The rise of Henry II who succeeded his mother Catherine I of Navarre in 1517 contribute to create a new dynamic between Navarre and France as Henry II creates ties with Francis in order to win some influence in the Regent’s court that would hopefully allow him to find an ally in the incoming future which allows him to win back the southern part of his kingdom.
(1) IOTL, Charles of Ghent was interested to build some relationship with France when Francis I came to power, while his aunt advises him to build ties with England. With the political situation ITTL, the quandary is less relevant.
(2) IOTL, Leo X supports his nephew Lorenzo's ambition to become duke of Urbino to the detriment of the "legitimate" duke,
Francesco Maria I della Rovere. As a result, Urbino is taken in March 1516 to the duke who was also excommunicated. But Francesco Maria della Rovere tried to retake his duchy in using soldiers that had been sent to retake Verona in the context of the War of the League of Cambrai (Fourth and Fifth Italian Wars for the French perspective). ITTL, while the war is over for more than two years, the conflict between Francesco della Rovere and the Medici family can still occur, especially since the duke of Urbino owes to the previous pope, Julius II.
(3) The war of Urbino costs IOTL 800 000 ducats to the pope, which was very costly to his treasury and hinders any project of expedition against the Ottoman Empire.
(4) In 1513, Charles III of Savoy appoints with the papal support his cousin in the position of archbishop of Geneva, creating a conflict that would be solved in the 1520's to his detriment.
