Tolbiac: Frankish defeat!!

[Promethean]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Tolbiac

What if the Franks were defeated at Tolbiac? Allemani unify Germany? No Charlemagne? Moors sucseed in their ''invasion'' of France?

 

[Philip]

What if the Franks were defeated at Tolbiac?

It depends on how drastic the defeat is. A minor defeat may just delay Clovis's conquest. A crushing defeat (and the death of Clovis) could allow the survival of Alaric II and the Visigothic Kingdom.

Allemani unify Germany?

It will take much more than a victory at Tolbiac for this.

No Charlemagne? Moors sucseed in their ''invasion'' of France?

Armies of butterflies destroy both Charlemagne and the Moors (Moops?).

 

[Promethean]

It depends on how drastic the defeat is. A minor defeat may just delay Clovis's conquest. A crushing defeat (and the death of Clovis) could allow the survival of Alaric II and the Visigothic Kingdom.

A crushing defeat!!

It will take much more than a victory at Tolbiac for this.

Long term effects!!

Armies of butterflies destroy both Charlemagne and the Moors (Moops?).

Charlemagne yes, the Moors im not sure...

 

[Norman]

1. I suspect that the linguistic border between the Germanic speakers and 'French' would be further south.

2. Because I am partial to the Goths, I would also like to believe that a Gothic-Speaking state might exist somewhere in the highlands of OTL France, maybe Southwest of Switzerland.

3. Arian Christianity might survive another couple of centuries (or longer). This could have profound effects, particularly if it were to butterfly away Islam (Unlikely because of the distances). Regardless, with another major center of Christian thought, Europe would be very different.

4. With the Goths able to maintain a presence in France, the Vandals might not be pushed out of Spain so completely.

 

[Codae]

2. Because I am partial to the Goths, I would also like to believe that a Gothic-Speaking state might exist somewhere in the highlands of OTL France, maybe South East of Switzerland.

Southeast of Switzerland isn't in France...

 

[Valdemar II]

Southeast of Switzerland isn't in France...

He clearly mean southwest, of course if a Gothic enclave is going to survive that isn't that bad a place, there're a area at the Italian border, with low population density and it's quite mountaineous, it would be the perfect place for a small nation of Goths to survive, and if I remember correctly they did have a settlement there.

http://sedac.ciesin.org/wdc/downloa...sity_Grids/Population_Density_2000_France.jpg

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/Images/PIA03393_lrg.jpg

 

[rcduggan]

3. Arian Christianity might survive another couple of centuries (or longer). This could have profound effects, particularly if it were to butterfly away Islam (Unlikely because of the distances). Regardless, with another major center of Christian thought, Europe would be very different.

Although it may not butterfly Islam away (although it very well could), the Byzantine reaction to the Arab threat would certainly be different than OTL. As others have said on this board, it was only a very long and costly war with the Sassanids that allowed the Rashidun caliphate to expand so successfully.

So a stronger Visigothic state could deter the Byzantines from westing their time and effort to retake Hispania, which could butterfly into better performance against the Sassanids, with the end result of Islam being contained on the Arabian peninsula.

 

[JJohnson]

Interesting...how about a map of this timeline?

 

[Norman]

He clearly mean southwest, of course if a Gothic enclave is going to survive that isn't that bad a place, there're a area at the Italian border, with low population density and it's quite mountaineous, it would be the perfect place for a small nation of Goths to survive, and if I remember correctly they did have a settlement there.

http://sedac.ciesin.org/wdc/downloa...sity_Grids/Population_Density_2000_France.jpg

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/Images/PIA03393_lrg.jpg

Thanks, that is what I meant. By the way, those are great maps.

 

[Promethean]

Interesting...how about a map of this timeline?

Maybe... but its an idea and not a timeline.

He clearly mean southwest, of course if a Gothic enclave is going to survive that isn't that bad a place, there're a area at the Italian border, with low population density and it's quite mountaineous, it would be the perfect place for a small nation of Goths to survive, and if I remember correctly they did have a settlement there.

http://sedac.ciesin.org/wdc/downloads/maps/population/GPWv3_Population_Density_Grids/Population_Density_2000_France.jpg

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/Images/PIA03393_lrg.jpg

Interesting in my failed TL i had an Ostrogothic Austria which spawned from Hungary to Marseille in 1000 AD.

Although it may not butterfly Islam away (although it very well could), the Byzantine reaction to the Arab threat would certainly be different than OTL. As others have said on this board, it was only a very long and costly war with the Sassanids that allowed the Rashidun caliphate to expand so successfully.

I agree with most of this statement.

So a stronger Visigothic state could deter the Byzantines from westing their time and effort to retake Hispania, which could butterfly into better performance against the Sassanids, with the end result of Islam being contained on the Arabian peninsula.

Wouldnt a defeat in Iberia be worse? Or will it just be a phyrric victory for the Visigoths and the Byzantines decide to leave Spain as it is.

 

[Norman]

If Franks are defeated, then almost certainly Burgundy is almost certainly not going to be some 40 years later.

This leaves an East Germanic continuum from Italy (Ostrogoths) through parts of Switzerland and Eastern France (Burgunds), Parts of Southern France and Northern Spain (Visigoths), and into Central Spain (Vandals).

Also, with victory comes the spoils. Stronger non-Roman Christian presence (i.e. Arian Christianity), means less Latin is used for religious purposes, and while Latin might be adopted in some of these areas, such as Spain, parts of France, and most of Italy, the existance of a broad East Germanic continuum suggests it might survive to the present.

 

[Tocomocho]

The Vandals have been expelled from Spain by decades when the POD takes place.

What could happen if the Goths remain in Toulouse, though, is that they choose to don't mess at all with the Sueves or the mountain tribes in northern Iberia, excluding occasional raids.

But, by the way, if the general trend we are assuming is that the Visigoth Kingdom remains or even gets stronger later (it could be the other way also) it's necessary to remember that they are buddies with both the Burgundians and the Ostrogoths and that this time they have plenty of resources in Aquitaine that can be send to Italy if they decide to back their cousins. There are not Franks to threaten the Ostrogoths from the back, and bearing in mind that they resisted for decades and that Italy was screwed by their war against the Byzantines... Who can guarantee that Justinian would not receive a bloody nose this time? He could be regarded by later generations as a mediocre emperor that wasted all the empire's wealth in wars against the Goths only to let an open door to the Persians.

In any case, if the Franks don't arise at all I think that Europe would be mostly Arian by the present time.

 

[Matthais Corvinus]

1. I suspect that the linguistic border between the Germanic speakers and 'French' would be further south.

2. Because I am partial to the Goths, I would also like to believe that a Gothic-Speaking state might exist somewhere in the highlands of OTL France, maybe Southwest of Switzerland.

3. Arian Christianity might survive another couple of centuries (or longer). This could have profound effects, particularly if it were to butterfly away Islam (Unlikely because of the distances). Regardless, with another major center of Christian thought, Europe would be very different.

4. With the Goths able to maintain a presence in France, the Vandals might not be pushed out of Spain so completely.

Some interesting points, but #3 in particular interested me. The Arian heresy basically denied the full divinity of Christ, therefore asserting that the father, son and holy spirit were not equal. This is a pretty big difference from Nicean Christianity, and it also is somewhat (not really, but somewhat) close to Islam's assertion that Christ was not divine, but an important prophet.

If Arianism were to survive due to the survival of a more robust Gothic kingdom, then when Islam arrives might a compromise be struck, or perhaps Islam itself somehow adapted to Arianism? If Islam's basic tenets hadn't been fully laid out, I think that Arianism could end up exerting some influence on the invading Islamic armies.

So Islamo Arian Goths.