What happens to Serbia and Montenegro after a Central Powers victory?

[Helmuth48]

It is rather unclear what exactly Austria-Hungary intended to do with Serbia and Montenegro after the Central Powers would have won the 'Great War'. The southern part of Serbia will have been annexed by Bulgaria. But what to do with the northern part? Reading about the Kriegsziele of Austria-Hungary, it becomes clear that the Austrian leaders were in favor of annexation, while the Hungarians (particularly Tisza) were against it. Which scenario will prevail in the end?

1, Annexation by Austria-Hungary:
Serbia disappears completely from the map and will never again pose a threat to Austria-Hungary. Is it possible that Serbia (and Montenegro) will then be governed as a condominium, just like Bosnia? In the longer term, perhaps the establishment of a South Slavic kingdom (trialism)? How will the Serbian people react to this?

2, Return to independence:
A reduced Serbia and Montenegro regain their independence, probably under a puppet government, which poses no threat to Austria-Hungary. The question, however, is how long such a government will remain in power. If a hostile government comes to power, will Austria-Hungary intervene again?

3, No solution, continued military occupation:
The Austrian and Hungarian leaders are unable to agree on a solution. As a result, the military occupation continues, possibly for decades?

 

[Helmuth48]

I made a map of (northern) Serbia with the OTL deployment of the Austro-Hungarian and Serbian armies in August 1914. I assume that Serbia, just like in OTL, will only be conquered in (late) 1915 with German and Bulgarian support.

 

[Ramontxo]

No idea but a (imho) a very good question. About the Double Monarchy absorbing Serbia that would be interesting in the Chinese sense...

 

[Nivek]

The last thing they wanted were more people inside, if Anything punitive actions and leaving Serbia as the European equivalent of the Chinese kingdoms, i.e. completely unarmed, defenceless and under A-H whims, so they would destroy their military, maybe even separate Montenegro from Serbia to weaken it and rule the smaller states via proxies

 

[Grey Wolf]

I read that a Montenegrin prince spent the war in Vienna, in the off-chance that the Central Powers won the war when he could pose as a friendly solution and see his father (I think) deposed in his favour, thus keeping Montenegrin independence

 

[Analytical Engine]

Austrian puppets. Austria-Hungary had enough problems with its own minorities as it was.

 

[Lalli]

I just can't see A-H annexing Serbia and Montenegro. Even if there would have been some support, even they have admit that it would be horribly bad idea. A-H might anyway take Montenegrian coast and some parts of Northern Serbia. Bulgaria would take Macedonia and territories lost on Second Balkan War.

Serbia perhaps would be under Austrian military occupation. Serbia would have pro-Austrian government. Not really sure what would happen to Serbian royal family. One possibility might be that king Milan I's illegitimite son George Obrenovic (who with my knowledge is only living relative of Alexander I Obrenovic) as king of Serbia. But not sure how plausible this is.

But I am really unsure what would happen to Montenegro. It is not annexed by A-H. They didn't want more land and people. Perhaps coastal area is annexed. But what to rest of the country would happen? Probably occupation. But I am bit unsure would its royal family be restored or some another picked. One possibility might be that it would be annexed by Serbia but I am bit unsure this too. That Serbia wouldn't still be threat or too strong but not sure if anyone wants that.

 

[Ogrelord420]

The map would probably look like this. Macedonia and Eastern Serbia would go to Bulgaria, the rest I can see two options.
1. We see a rump Serbian state consisting of Western Serbia, Kosovo, and Montenegro that becomes an Austrian protectorate.
2. It is annexed into a federalized Austria-Hungary, perhaps joining the Croatian state or splitting Bosnia with them and creating their own.

 

[Aghasverov]

I read that a Montenegrin prince spent the war in Vienna, in the off-chance that the Central Powers won the war when he could pose as a friendly solution and see his father (I think) deposed in his favour, thus keeping Montenegrin independence

That was Mirko, I believe....

 

[Nivek]

1. We see a rump Serbian state consisting of Serbia, Kosovo, and Montenegro that becomes an Austrian protectorate.

This

 

[Lalli]

1. We see a rump Serbian state consisting of Western Serbia, Kosovo, and Montenegro that becomes an Austrian protectorate.

This is pretty plausible scenario.

2. It is annexed into a federalized Austria-Hungary, perhaps joining the Croatian state or splitting Bosnia with them and creating their own.

This seems lesser plausible. A-H didn't want more land. At least not annex whole country.

 

[AlexanderDragon]

O

This is pretty plausible scenario.



This seems lesser plausible. A-H didn't want more land. At least not annex whole country.

Ofc Austria wanted more land, why do you think they started the war in the first place? Montenegro would be annexed, and Serbia made a weak puppet state under Austrian occupation. They would probably try for Albania too.

 

[Tom_B]

The largest copper mine in Europe was at Bor in Serbia not too far over the border. The Central Powers suffered from a shortage of copper. Germany would insist that Austria-Hungary take Bor. As for Montenegro there are good military reasons why Austria-Hungary would annex Mt. Lovcen.

 

[Helmuth48]

The largest copper mine in Europe was at Bor in Serbia not too far over the border. The Central Powers suffered from a shortage of copper. Germany would insist that Austria-Hungary take Bor. As for Montenegro there are good military reasons why Austria-Hungary would annex Mt. Lovcen.

Interesting... I see that copper mine is located in the northeastern part of Serbia, the part occupied by Bulgaria. This raises the question of why the occupation zones were chosen in this way. Why the Morava as a border, straight through the Serbian heartland? Bulgarians didn't even live in northeastern Serbia, and that part had belonged to Serbia for a long time, unlike the more southern regions.

Will these occupation zones also become the definitive borders? Or are they still negotiable? Exchanging Kosovo for the northeast might then be a logical step...

 

[Fatt Shea]

1. We see a rump Serbian state consisting of Western Serbia, Kosovo, and Montenegro that becomes an Austrian protectorate.

They might want to give Kosovo to Albania which they would make their new puppet, since it would help them with naval matters as Albania sits at the enterance to the Adriatic they had conflict with Italy about who should have influence there before and they would look to formalise their influence there after the war. Giving them Kosovo would look like an easy way to win the support of the Albanian population who had rebelled against their European king without Austria sacrificing much.

 

[Fehérvári]

Interesting... I see that copper mine is located in the northeastern part of Serbia, the part occupied by Bulgaria. This raises the question of why the occupation zones were chosen in this way. Why the Morava as a border, straight through the Serbian heartland? Bulgarians didn't even live in northeastern Serbia, and that part had belonged to Serbia for a long time, unlike the more southern regions.

Will these occupation zones also become the definitive borders? Or are they still negotiable? Exchanging Kosovo for the northeast might then be a logical step...

From Bulgarian Wikipedia:

According to the treaty, Germany guaranteed Bulgaria, in exchange for its inclusion in the war against Serbia , the receipt of the disputed and undisputed zone under the Bulgarian-Serbian treaty of 1912, as well as a larger part of Pomerania with the whole of Timoshko . Thus, according to the treaty, the western border of Bulgaria starts from the Danube to the south along the Great Morava River to the confluence of the Bulgarian and Serbian Morava , and from there follows the watershed of these two rivers, passing along the ridges of the Veliki Yastrebac , Kopaonik mountains , Goljak , the crest of Skopje Black Mountain , crosses the Kachanik pass , climbs to the crests of the Shar mountain , where it reaches the borders of Santefanska Bulgaria , that is along Korab , Deshat and Yablanitsa . The boundary is drawn on an attached map, an integral part of the contract.

In the event of Romania entering the war on the side of the Entente , Germany agreed to the Bulgarian annexation of Southern Dobrudja , occupied by Romania in 1913 under the Treaty of Bucharest , as well as part of Northern Dobrudja , with the border running north of the border along the San Stefano contract, but south of Kyustenja .

In the event of Greece entering the war on the side of the Entente , Germany agreed to the Bulgarian annexation of the eastern part of Aegean Macedonia with the cities of Kavala , Drama , Siar and Kukush , with the border starting from the Aegean Sea south of Kavala and running in a western direction along Kushnitsa , along Lake Tahino on Struma , along the Orso mountain , the Bogdan mountain and before reaching Vardar turns north and runs parallel to the river to the Greek-Serbian border east of Gevgeli.

The two contracting parties reserve the right to a further agreement on the conclusion of peace.

Germany and Austria-Hungary grant Bulgaria a loan of 200 million francs for 4 months, promising an additional loan if the war lasts longer. [1]

Тайна българо-германска спогодба – Уикипедия

bg.wikipedia.org

 

[p0lish_runn3r]

I think more then likely Montenegro and Serbia become Austrian puppets alongside Albania. Austria would place friendly monarchs on the Serbian and Montenegrin thrones. Austria would annex Mt Lovcen from Montenegro and Bulgaria would annex most of Serbia.

 

[Discernible]

Since Albania had German head of state pre-WW1 wouldn't the Germans reimpose such a regime and add Kosovo as well as areas of 'South Serbia' (Macedonia) where Albanians are in majority? The rest goes to Bulgaria with other parts of south Serbia proper which Bulgarians argue were Bulgarian as, IIRC, they came under the Bulgarian Orthodox Church.

More widely, could see the Central Powes have Montenegro continue as a state in such a scenario as well as make what ia left of Serbia have the Obrenovićs return as monarchs as they were far more A-H friendly than the Кarađorđevićs; but with defacto, tho' low key, Austrian military rule to expunge the Greater Serbianists.

 

[Helmuth48]

From Bulgarian Wikipedia:

Тайна българо-германска спогодба – Уикипедия

bg.wikipedia.org

So, before the Serbian campaign of 1915 started, there was already an agreement between Germany and Bulgaria on the borders between the occupation zones. According to this border description, Kosovo falls entirely within the Austro-Hungarian occupation zone. However, Bulgaria did not adhere to this by also occupying large parts of Kossovo and Albania (read: Austro-Hungarian occupation of Serbia). This led to a confrontation with Austria-Hungary. After mediation by Germany, a new agreement was reached:

The Bulgarians withdrew eastwards, retaining the district containing Prizren and Priština, but leaving Albania and western Kosovo to the Austro-Hungarians. The agreement gave Bulgaria administrative rights over areas of Serbia that were not in the original agreement. In return, Bulgaria agreed to let Germany have access to the valleys east of the Velika Morava, the Južna Morava in Kosovo, as well as the Vardar Valley, effectively turning Macedonia and Kosovo into zones dedicated to German economic exploitation.[74][72]

This gave Germany access to the copper mines:

As the German exploitation of resources in occupied Serbia was handled by the German Oriental Society (German: Deutsch-orientalische Gesellschaft), the exploitation of mines failed to satisfy the Dual Monarchy's need for vital raw materials because Germany took two-thirds of all production from Serbia as reparations for its military aid.[99]

IMO enough reason for future conflicts and the necessary negotiations.

 

[walmart]

If I remember correctly Novi-Pazar was to be annexed to cut Serbia from Montenegro