What if 1995 Conservative leadership election goes to a second ballot?

AdmiralBlake

assuming John Major falls below his 215 vote target, and resigns outright as leader

who would be candidates? Portillo for certain, but Heseltine? Clarke? Redwood?

and who do you think would win?
 

YellowArmy

If Major resigns, I'd suggest the traditional Europhile/Eurosceptic party lines are drawn again. That means Hesseltine and Ken Clarke running on the Europhile ticket, whilst Portillo, Michael Howard and John Redwood opposed on the Eurosceptic ticket.

In my opinion, it's a battle between Portillo and Ken Clarke, with Portillo winning handsomely.
 

AdmiralBlake

YellowArmy said:
If Major resigns, I'd suggest the traditional Europhile/Eurosceptic party lines are drawn again. That means Hesseltine and Ken Clarke running on the Europhile ticket, whilst Portillo, Michael Howard and John Redwood opposed on the Eurosceptic ticket.

In my opinion, it's a battle between Portillo and Ken Clarke, with Portillo winning handsomely.
Click to expand...

so you think they'll all run on the second ballot?
 

Marky Bunny

The actual figures where:
Major 218
Redwood 89
Spoiled Ballots 12
Abstentions 10

Now here are the figures where Major falls below his target of 215 votes

Major 214
Redwood 97
Spoiled Ballots 10
Abstentions 8


The second ballot would have been between Redwood, Portillo and Clarke.
 

AdmiralBlake

Marky Bunny said:
The actual figures where:
Major 218
Redwood 89
Spoiled Ballots 12
Abstentions 10

Now here are the figures where Major falls below his target of 215 votes

Major 214
Redwood 97
Spoiled Ballots 10
Abstentions 8


The second ballot would have been between Redwood, Portillo and Clarke.
Click to expand...

you want to predict the results of that, in terms of votes?
 

AdmiralBlake

YellowArmy said:
No no, Portillo and Clarke, with Redwood a possibility? If I'm honest, I could see Redwood pulling out of the second ballot to endorse Portillo, which gives him an easy win.
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Redwood said otl that he would not withdraw from a second ballot, so I think a second ballot would have

1st Clarke
2nd portillo
3rd redwood
 
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