What if: ERE is defeated at the battle of Ad Decimum

[Hvalrossen]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Ad_Decimum

Gibamund failed to accomplish his mission, as a force of Byzantine and Hun mercenaries drove his 2,000-man force off and killed him. Ammatas also failed; he arrived at the defile with his men still strung out along the road back to Carthage, and he too was killed. The Romans pursued his men all the way to the gates of Carthage itself.

Gelimer's main force, however, inflicted serious casualties on the Byzantine troops along the main road. the Byzantine mercenary cavalry was routed by the Vandals, and even though Gelimer was outnumbered, his men were performing well in the fighting. It appeared as though the Vandals would win the battle.

But when Gelimer reached Ammatas's position and discovered that his brother had been killed, by the vanguard of John the Armenian,[2] he became disconsolate and failed to give an order for one more assault — which would probably have destroyed the reeling Roman army and cut off the Huns and Byzantines who had earlier advanced toward Carthage after beating Ammatas and Gibamund. Instead, the Vandal attack was weakened while Gelimer buried his brother on the battlefield. [3]

Given a respite, Belisarius was able to regroup his forces south of Ad Decimum and launch a counterattack, which drove the Vandals back and soon routed them. Gelimer was forced to abandon Carthage.

What if the Vandal's had won at the battle of Ad Decimum?

What if Gelimer had not disconnected from the battle at the news of his brother's death. What if he had pushed through with another assault?

What different scenarios might play out? Would the remnants of the ERE army be destroyed, enslaved, or perhaps recruited into the Vandal army? Could the ERE army regroup following the defeat? Would dispersed remnants of the ERE army find supporters that could feed, cloth, shelter them and perhaps help them escape the Vandal Kingdom?

How would Justinian react to the news of Belisarus defeat?

 

[LSCatilina]

What if the Vandal's had won at the battle of Ad Decimum?

It would be a Phyrric victory I think, not only because of Vandals losses, but because Vandals lost the capacity to really prevent Romans to project and supply themselves, there wouldn't be stopping them doing another offensive. Except if we consider that Vandals could have annihilated the Byzantine army sent in Africa, but I really doubt they could.

Would the remnants of the ERE army be destroyed

Probably not : straightforward annihilation of armies is rather rare at this point, and you likely see rather a withdrawal of Byzantine army in Tripolitana IMO.

Would dispersed remnants of the ERE army find supporters that could feed, cloth, shelter them and perhaps help them escape the Vandal Kingdom?

Rather than escaping the kingdom, you'd likely see Vandal Wars turning more or less ike Gothic Wars. As in a relatively protracted conflict Vandals wouldn't be really in position to "win" being stuck between Romans (that would probably find a lot of support among Afro-Romans that considered Vandals less and less able to rule against Berbers) and Berbers themselves.

Now, I could see better conditions for Vandals to negociate their surrender, but that's too isn't especially obvious if you consider Gothic Wars. Which is certain is that Africa is going to be weakened and that even more of African scholars would cross the sea to refugee themselves in Spain or even Gaul ITTL.

How would Justinian react to the news of Belisarus defeat?

Possibly paranoically. More likely, with considering Belisarius not as much fit for command, even if it wouldn't be his faults. Likely someone like Narses would be sent beneficing from the definitely supoerior strategical and logistical ground of the Empire.
It could have consequences on how Romans would deal with Berbers and Italy, maybe more prone to delaying or negociating surrenders or military advance. Of course, if the second Byzantine wave is crushingly victorius, changes would be limited.

Overall, the PoD have quite interesting consequences, less for Vandals (altough it would certainly change regional events a lot) than for most of Central Romania in the VIth.

 

[Hvalrossen]

It would be a Phyrric victory I think, not only because of Vandals losses, but because Vandals lost the capacity to really prevent Romans to project and supply themselves, there wouldn't be stopping them doing another offensive. Except if we consider that Vandals could have annihilated the Byzantine army sent in Africa, but I really doubt they could.

Perhaps the Vandals standing and reputation would improve among Berbers? Vandal-Berber relations could possibly make or break the Vandal kingdom.

Probably not : straightforward annihilation of armies is rather rare at this point, and you likely see rather a withdrawal of Byzantine army in Tripolitana IMO.

Would not the Vandals want to pursue the Byzantine withdrawal? The Vandals would have the advantage of being on the home turf. They would be better fed, clothed, etc than the Byzantines. If the Byzantines manage to withdraw then they could regroup, and possibly prepare another assault.

Rather than escaping the kingdom, you'd likely see Vandal Wars turning more or less ike Gothic Wars. As in a relatively protracted conflict Vandals wouldn't be really in position to "win" being stuck between Romans (that would probably find a lot of support among Afro-Romans that considered Vandals less and less able to rule against Berbers) and Berbers themselves.

Some Vandals had been converting to Catholic Christianity, perhaps they could also become supportive of ERE?

Now, I could see better conditions for Vandals to negociate their surrender, but that's too isn't especially obvious if you consider Gothic Wars. Which is certain is that Africa is going to be weakened and that even more of African scholars would cross the sea to refugee themselves in Spain or even Gaul ITTL.

What kind of negotiated surrender might the Vandals achive? Vassaldom, exodus to a Gothic state, religious conversion to Catholic Christianity, allowed to keep Arian christianity, integration into the ERE elite or maybe annexation allthough with the Vandals being allowed to keep their property. Maybe something else? What would be most likely option? Any other options that would not be unlikely? Some more unlikely possibilities?

The exodus of skilled people could lead to lower levels of development in Africa.

Possibly paranoically. More likely, with considering Belisarius not as much fit for command, even if it wouldn't be his faults. Likely someone like Narses would be sent beneficing from the definitely supoerior strategical and logistical ground of the Empire.
It could have consequences on how Romans would deal with Berbers and Italy, maybe more prone to delaying or negociating surrenders or military advance. Of course, if the second Byzantine wave is crushingly victorius, changes would be limited.

The Vandals would be able to regroup and prepare for the second Byzantine wave in this scenario, thus they might prove more formidable than before.

Overall, the PoD have quite interesting consequences, less for Vandals (altough it would certainly change regional events a lot) than for most of Central Romania in the VIth.

What might the butterflies be in this ATL?

 

[LSCatilina]

Perhaps the Vandals standing and reputation would improve among Berbers? Vandal-Berber relations could possibly make or break the Vandal kingdom.

At this point Berber demonstratively prooved they weren't really interested on such relation anymore.

Would not the Vandals want to pursue the Byzantine withdrawal?

Heavy losses and logistical issue, essentially.

They would be better fed, clothed, etc than the Byzantines.

Supply by sea and from Libya would be more than necessary to compensate this.

If the Byzantines manage to withdraw then they could regroup, and possibly prepare another assault.

Some Vandals had been converting to Catholic Christianity, perhaps they could also become supportive of ERE?

Political identity would be rather determining compared to religious identity, as points most of what happen in Barbarian kingdoms in the era.

What kind of negotiated surrender might the Vandals achive?

More or less what might have happened for Goths IMO : meaning a rump kingdom far from African centers, possibly on the western regions IMO. That's a "best scenario" for Vandals, tough.
Atlough there's an interesting point in your post about being allowed to keep property in Proconsularis, I think that it would be as IOTL in the immediate aftermath of the conquest, as the land becoming public fiscus and being redistributed to Imperialarmy that would marry women of Vandal families; eventually I would effectively see Vandals remaining as communities in the borders of the African province, as well as employed not just against Persians but as well in Italy against Goths.

Now, it's all quite dependent from what happens in Africa, so there's nothing really impossible about these proposals.

The exodus of skilled people could lead to lower levels of development in Africa.

Heh, we're mostly talking about a scholar exile. Most of the structural devellopment wasn't hugely concerned by this.

The Vandals would be able to regroup and prepare for the second Byzantine wave in this scenario, thus they might prove more formidable than before.

Heavy Vandal losses, being stuck between the hammer and the anvil (Romans and Berbers), probably being harassed by Byzantine Navy and all the troubles that knew Gothic Wars but with a less favorable position.
My bet wouldn't be on a Vandal recovery, really.

What might the butterflies be in this ATL?

More limited imperial ambitions in Italy, more focus on actual regional situation, an actual capacity to negociate and search clear strategical objectives instead of JUSTINIAN SMASH.
Which could leed to less costly campaigns for ERE.[/QUOTE]