What If: He Keeps Us Out of War?
- Thread starter Wolfpaw
- Start date
I want to bump this reply - what would the effects be if Wilson, instead of getting the US into a war with Germany (who was sinking American ships), sinks the US into an early Vietnam in Mexico? I think if Americans are still fighting in Mexico long after WWI has reached its conclusion, then his popularity won't exactly soar...
1. The Entente stops attacking because without American support in the form of loans, they have to fight a more limited war. This is actually better for them in that the morale of the soldiers isn't ruined by insane over the top use up their ammunition banzai charges as in OTL. On the defence the Entente trades casualties one to one. On attack they trade casualties at two to one at best. And the Entente has more soldiers, especially Russian soldiers, especially since those Russian soldiers aren't thrown away on senseless attacks either.
2. The war lasts until 1920 and ends with a return to the prewar borders with the loss of the German colonies. It would have ended in 1919 if the Germans got their colonies back, but that isn't going to happen. The Germans don't pay reparations in this timeline, either. Germany keeps attacking and winning right until they give up, probably at the Gates of Petrograd or perhaps after they capture Petrograd and realise that the Russian government will just keep on defending from Moscow.
3. Germany doesn't get reparations thinly disguised as American loans as in OTL. They also get stuck paying for half the casualties in WWI because the German and AustroHungarian empires don't get to skip out on their Polish, Hungarian, Slovakian, Slovenian, Bohemian, Rumanian, etc., etc., etc. ethnic minority veterans in their German led armies as in OTL.
4. England, France, etc, don't get anticommunist subsidies from the US a la Keynes, as in OTL. They are extremely bankrupt. They may lose the colonies they took from Germany because they can't pay for the troops they need to keep order in the colonies. You have to have somebody there to keep three kids and a donkey from raising a flag and declaring a Republic.
5. Our banks don't go bankrupt making loans to the Entente and not having them paid back. No depression is definitely possible. We might not have immigration cutbacks as we did in OTL because the Europeans might not have socialist revolutions that scared off the US upper class as in OTL. Don't know.
6. We still lose 10,000,000 dead in the war, but we don't lose 10,000,000 more in the Russian revolution.
7. We still lose more people dead from the flu epidemic than in the war.
2. The war lasts until 1920 and ends with a return to the prewar borders with the loss of the German colonies. It would have ended in 1919 if the Germans got their colonies back, but that isn't going to happen. The Germans don't pay reparations in this timeline, either. Germany keeps attacking and winning right until they give up, probably at the Gates of Petrograd or perhaps after they capture Petrograd and realise that the Russian government will just keep on defending from Moscow.
3. Germany doesn't get reparations thinly disguised as American loans as in OTL. They also get stuck paying for half the casualties in WWI because the German and AustroHungarian empires don't get to skip out on their Polish, Hungarian, Slovakian, Slovenian, Bohemian, Rumanian, etc., etc., etc. ethnic minority veterans in their German led armies as in OTL.
4. England, France, etc, don't get anticommunist subsidies from the US a la Keynes, as in OTL. They are extremely bankrupt. They may lose the colonies they took from Germany because they can't pay for the troops they need to keep order in the colonies. You have to have somebody there to keep three kids and a donkey from raising a flag and declaring a Republic.
5. Our banks don't go bankrupt making loans to the Entente and not having them paid back. No depression is definitely possible. We might not have immigration cutbacks as we did in OTL because the Europeans might not have socialist revolutions that scared off the US upper class as in OTL. Don't know.
6. We still lose 10,000,000 dead in the war, but we don't lose 10,000,000 more in the Russian revolution.
7. We still lose more people dead from the flu epidemic than in the war.
BlondieBC
Banned
In Scenario #2, i was assuming the USA was fully neutral from 1914 onward. This means as soon as the British implement a blockade, without doing the close blockade portion, the USA responds with a trade embargo on the Entente. We supplied a large portion of the war material for the Entente. In this Scenario, it is unlikely the Entente can force a major victory before either France or the UK loses the will to fight.
BlondieBC
Banned
In OTL, Germany survived. In a time line where Germany gets a victory or a negotiated truce, Germany is also likely to survive. Not certain, but merely likely. IMO, Germany annexing Austria and other German areas of the AH is more likely than Germany voluntarily disbanding into smaller states.
BlondieBC
Banned
In number #2, do you assume Russia still falls apart in 1917? If not, could you explain a bit on which changes helps the Tsar stay in power?
Also, if at the end of the war, Germany has Poland, most of Belgium, parts of France, and other parts of Russia: why does Germany agree to give up both the colonies and all the land occupied in Europe?
I can't see the continental war lasting to 1920. Indeed, as I noted earlier, if Britain can no longer subsidise hercontinental allies, it may not even last to 1918.
If Britain refuses to make peace, the ensuing naval war could last into 1920, but Britain could not possibly compel Germany to return to her 1914 borders.
BlondieBC
Banned
POD: No Zimmerman Telegram. Unrestricted Submarine War Resume. Declaration of War Vote fails in Congress in summer of 1917.
The USA is Pro-Entente by this point. I will assume the USA continues to sell to the Entente on unsecured credit. If the USA insist on secured credit or payment in gold, sales will be substantially reduced compared to OTL.
In 1917, the USA had no major forces in the war. This timeline is much like OTL. Perhaps the submarine war goes a little better for the CP.
In June 1918, the USA had 500,000 troops in France. One Army near the Marne. One in Reserve. The French or British will be forced to pull one army out of reserve to cover. The Entente will be short 500,000 troops in Reserve or two full armies. They will also bear the 100,000 dead and 200,000 wounded the American suffer. The Entente reserve is short 3 full armies. The Michael offensive had logistical issues, and the Entente is able to stop the offensive by heavily depleting their reserves. The Michael offenses advances a few more miles, and perhaps captures Amiens.
By the time of the hundred day offensive, the USA has 1 million troops (about 4 armies) in France, with half in the line. The British have there new tanks, and will be looking to launch an offensive. In OTL, the 1st British, 3rd British, 4th British, 1st French and 10th French armies were used in battle. The Entente is short 4 Amercian Armies, about half of which are in reserve. The Entente commander can launch an offensive with one army, and maintain the same reserve as our time line. Or, he can use 3 armies, and have a reserve with 2 Armies less than OTL. Either way, the offensive is much weaker, and will not breach the Hindenburg line before winter. The offensive may not even push the Germans back to the lines of winter of 1917/1918. The war drags on to the Spring of 1919.
All this sounds positive for the CP, but remember, Bulgaria and AH still leave the war in late 1918. German civilians are starving to death, even though food supplies from the Ukraine may help in 1919. So, we have a few basic questions that are hard to answer.
1) Are the Entente committed to military victory despite a few more years of war? Will they be tempted for a negotiated peace short of full victory.
2) Whose morale collapses first? Germany is most likely due to starvation in the home front.
3) How far do the Entente have to drive to break German morale. Hindenburg Line, Crossing the Rhine, Berlin?
The latter is far more likely. OTL, Wilson did not abandon his opposition to unsecured loans until March 8, two weeks after receiving the ZT and one week after publishing it. USW had been in operation over a month without leading him to change his position.
Of course, even if he does ok unsecured loans, that doesn't mean they will be forthcoming. It's not that long since the Fed was warning against them as an unsafe investment, and with America st5ill neutral, subscribing to them cannot be sold as a patriotic duty.
Also, of course, there can be no meatless, wheatless etc days in a US that is not at war. So food exports at least will be way down on OTL, loans or no loans.
Where on earth do the Rhine and Berlin come into it?
If things go as OTL up to 1918 (doubtful but let it pass for now) and the Germans still do an offensive that year, there are two possibilities.
a) It succeeds and the Germans win the continental war, though a naval war with Britain may drag on a while.
b) It fails, and the Germans fall back eastward. In that case, when the front line gets uncomfortably close to their own border, they will call it a day and seek an armistice much as OTL. This will be granted, as Pershing (the only Allied commander who objected to one) will be absent.
The Rhine and Berlin aren't in the picture anwhere.
Utter hell. However the US won't be afraid of killing civilians. It will be very nasty.
IMO Wilson will take Northern Mexico into the US once he realizes that the war is going south and he needs something to salvage the bumbling misadventure.
This ironically might mean Mexico ends up better off ITTL: The more radical reformers lost out IOTL to the Sonora Gang of "let's just keep everything the same" after Cardenas' presidency.
From another point of view...
The Tank will get much more of a workout. The western allies might all be using turreted tanks by the time the war finally ends, as might the germans. Extended use will make it harder to dismiss them as a fluke of circumstances.
If Japan still proposes the Racial Equality Treaty at the League of Nations, America will either be absent or find it harder to turn Britain into it's patsey for shooting it down. (Though Britain will almost certainly insist on modifacations and clauses for its colonies - while recognising Japan itself.) With better relations between Britain and Japan, and worse with America, they might not suffer the problems they did in the 1930s. So maybe no war in the pacific either.
Beyond that you get into ASB territory due to all the butterflying. But a slower and possibly more organised collapse of the british empire seems likely (though they may still retain the £ as the world currency) along with slower aceptance of racial equality in america due to an absense of black GIs.
The Tank will get much more of a workout. The western allies might all be using turreted tanks by the time the war finally ends, as might the germans. Extended use will make it harder to dismiss them as a fluke of circumstances.
If Japan still proposes the Racial Equality Treaty at the League of Nations, America will either be absent or find it harder to turn Britain into it's patsey for shooting it down. (Though Britain will almost certainly insist on modifacations and clauses for its colonies - while recognising Japan itself.) With better relations between Britain and Japan, and worse with America, they might not suffer the problems they did in the 1930s. So maybe no war in the pacific either.
Beyond that you get into ASB territory due to all the butterflying. But a slower and possibly more organised collapse of the british empire seems likely (though they may still retain the £ as the world currency) along with slower aceptance of racial equality in america due to an absense of black GIs.