I assume that for the Bolsheviks to not rise to power the Russian Provisional Government decides to not continue the war against Germany, but how likely is this? What would be the affects of a social democratic Russian Republic in the twentieth century? Would Russia become a stronger nation? Would the Nazis even be able to rise in the absence of the Bolshevik boogeyman?
What if the October Revolution never happened?
- Thread starter Bomster
- Start date
Perhaps what IOTL we know as WWII would
never happen ITTL. Instead Russia would have crushed Germany in a not-too long war
rather than wait for Hitler(assuming he still
came to power)to crush them. I also think
that a genuinely Democratic Russia could have done it for it would have been a better,
even happier, nation than it was IOTL under
the Communists(certainly the millions who
Stalin killed would have instead lived).
never happen ITTL. Instead Russia would have crushed Germany in a not-too long war
rather than wait for Hitler(assuming he still
came to power)to crush them. I also think
that a genuinely Democratic Russia could have done it for it would have been a better,
even happier, nation than it was IOTL under
the Communists(certainly the millions who
Stalin killed would have instead lived).
Hmm. It wouldn't be difficult to eliminate the Bolshevik revolution and I suspect a weak central government would eventually have to make peace, especially if the Kerensky offensive failed as badly as OTL and led to the July Days. Maybe Kerensky and Kornilov ally fully and eliminate the Bolshevisk, rather than Kerensky supplying them with arms. Or Kornilov stages a successful coup, though this would probably prolong Russian involvement in the Great War. Or Kerensky successfully uses the whole plot as a device to boost his popularity and marginalise the Bolsheviks.
Let's take the option that the Kerensky offensive is a worse disaster but he manages to maintain his own power and eliminate the Reds. This means Russia will cede a lot of territory to Germany (and probably some to the Ottomans and AH). This might lead to a CP victory, or not. Either way Russia is likely to be riven with internal unrest for years to come, with various warlord states persisting (see 'Ephemeral States of the Russian Civil War') and maybe Roman von Ungern-Sternberg establishing a dynasty in Mongolia.
There will be no Stalinist forced-draught industrialistion, until perhaps the government is toppled during the Big Slump and replaced bya himegrown political cult espousing a windy mix of nationalism, monarchism, corporatism, anti-liberalism, anti-socialism, social conservatism, Pan-Slavism, reactionary (Orthodox) Christianity and tinges of anti-Semitism and xenophobia.Then the stage is set for the Great Eastern War of 1941-46...
OK, maybe not. But without the Russian/Soviet example the 'Red Scare' would be far less, probably benefiting various socialist/social-democrat groups (and respect for civil liberties, I'm looking at you Palmer). An earlier and more stable Labour government in Britain perhaps?
Let's take the option that the Kerensky offensive is a worse disaster but he manages to maintain his own power and eliminate the Reds. This means Russia will cede a lot of territory to Germany (and probably some to the Ottomans and AH). This might lead to a CP victory, or not. Either way Russia is likely to be riven with internal unrest for years to come, with various warlord states persisting (see 'Ephemeral States of the Russian Civil War') and maybe Roman von Ungern-Sternberg establishing a dynasty in Mongolia.
There will be no Stalinist forced-draught industrialistion, until perhaps the government is toppled during the Big Slump and replaced bya himegrown political cult espousing a windy mix of nationalism, monarchism, corporatism, anti-liberalism, anti-socialism, social conservatism, Pan-Slavism, reactionary (Orthodox) Christianity and tinges of anti-Semitism and xenophobia.Then the stage is set for the Great Eastern War of 1941-46...
OK, maybe not. But without the Russian/Soviet example the 'Red Scare' would be far less, probably benefiting various socialist/social-democrat groups (and respect for civil liberties, I'm looking at you Palmer). An earlier and more stable Labour government in Britain perhaps?
Thomas1195
Banned
For Britain, butterfly away Campbell case might have prolong the three-party system. The Campbell case triggered an election in 1924, when the Liberals was suffering from funding crisis IOTL. Delaying the election to say, 1926, would see a stronger Liberal Party, which would have a serious chance to bounce back once the Great Depression broke out.
I think it might fall into the same situation as the Weimar Republic. Low literacy and lack of education among the populace would also pose a big problem.
Perhaps the "Don't Shoot" prosecution in 1912 goes badly and the Incitement to Mutiny Act is quietly ignored?
However, mathematically first-past-the-post (and other plurality voting systems) tends to lead to two party systems, Duverger's law. So I'm doubtful about a stable three party system without electoral reform.
Yeah, once the economy tanks (and I think that was inevitable) populism and extremism will flourish.
If Russia becomes a republic, then would a communist revolution break out in Germany?
It would depend on a lot of circumstances; How did the war end? Was Germany victorious? How's the food situation?
If, for example, Russian did worse in it's offensive and capitulated earlier, Germany might do better and achieve a white peace. In that case I doubt there would much chance of revolution.
The October Revolution (or coup) was not inevitable, but the PG could not have made peace with the Germans (though it could and should have avoided the Kerensky Offensive) for the reasons I explain at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ace-with-germany-in-wwi.438683/#post-16633608 Remember that Brest-Litovsk split even the Bolsheviks in OTL...