If This Happens the Return to Los Angeles in 2016 should be taken away from the TL, So Either the Raiders or the Chargers will move the Los Angeles by the end of the Decade.
The Raiders and Chargers already had a stadium in the works in around 2015 or so.
Honestly, I don't think this changes much. The Super Bowl loss isn't what turned Kurt Warner into a pumpkin, nor what caused the defense to decay into uselessness. So the Rams still fizzle out by the mid-2000s. The Patriots, meanwhile, don't change much either. They lost a close Super Bowl to the freaking Greatest Show on Turf, their star is ascendant and Brady is the obvious starter.
Brady is obviously starting, but I don’t see the Patriots going to 4 Super Bowls in the next 7 years. I see them still a AFC contender, but not an immediate Super Bowl favorite. As for the Rams, they would still have their hangover in 02 but come back in a big way in 03 and instead of the Panthers facing the Patriots, it would instead be the Rams vs either the Colts or the Titans with the Rams likely winning.
Why? How does one game change either teams' coaching skill, talent acquisition, and injury luck?
For the talent, many free agents would maybe come to St.Louis because they have won two Super Bowls in three years and are on the cusp of or are now a dynasty.
That's not how the draft or free agency work.
Also, they lost five games by one score, not six, and they also won three games by one score, so it's not only hilariously unlikely they pull off the 12-4 record, but that just means they get clobbered by somebody in the playoffs.
With what money? Looking at St. Louis' OTL signings, the Rams didn't have much money on hand given they spent very little. And in any case, it's not like New England hoovers up the top free agents year after year. Being a dynasty isn't everything when it comes to attracting free agents.
Eurgh. That's the worst kind of hindsight drafting.
About nothing changes. They had already won the Super Bowl after the 99 season. So I guess they earn a little cred as a Dynasty of sorts; bonus point for winning it a 2nd time in 3 years with a different coach than their first time.
The Rams had a great 5 year run from 1999 through 2003.
97 - Vermeil as Coach - 5 and 11 record (GM: Dick Vermeil)
98 - Vermeil as Coach - 4 and 12 record (GM: Dick Vermeil)
99 - Vermeil as Coach - 13 and 3 record; win the Super Bowl (GM: Dick Vermeil)
00 - Martz as Coach - 10 and 6 record; lose in 1st round of playoffs (GM: Charley Armey)
01 - Martz as Coach - 14 and 2 record; lose the Super Bowl (GM: Charley Armey)
02 - Martz as Coach - 7 and 9 record (GM: Charley Armey)
03 - Martz as Coach - 12 and 4 record; lose in the 2nd round of playoffs (bye in the 1st round) (GM: Charley Armey)
04 - Martz as Coach - 8 and 8 record (GM: Charley Armey)
05 - Martz fired mid season - 6 and 10 record (GM: Charley Armey)
06 - Linehan as Coach - 8 and 8 record (GM: Jay Zygmunt)
The organizations next winning season and playoff appearance: 2017 (as LA Rams).
With the nature of the salary cap and the brutal nature of attrition that is an NFL season and an NFL career, having a non-losing season for multiple consecutive seasons (let alone deep runs in the playoffs) is really, really difficult.
Winning Teams have losing teams vulturing Free Agent talent off of them in the off-season. Teams already paying prime dollars for existing stars have less money because of the salary cap to spend to keep their own talented drafted players who become Free Agents themselves after their first 4 or 5 (in the case of first round picks) years in the league. AND, drafted players become more expensive to a degree as they progress from year 2 to 3 to 4 (and to 5) and their annual salaries automatically increase per the collective bargaining agreement.
And NOT just players, but coaches too get vultured. Assistant Coaches on Playoff Teams get offered Coordinator jobs on other teams (Pro or college). Coordinators get offered head coaching jobs.
And players age and get hurt. Football is not pattycake.
The Marshall Faulk of ages 25 - 27 when he came in 2nd-1st-2nd in MVP voting with 2200, 2400, and 2100 yards from scrimmage of the 1999-2001 seasons was not the same Marshall Faulk who gained 1500, 1100, and 1100 yards from scrimmage at ages 29 and 31. And certainly not the Marshall Faulk of age 33 who was no longer playing in the NFL.
It seems pretty obvious that Dick Vermeil built the Rams into the winning Team that it was 1999 through 2003; even though he left after 1999 when he won the Super Bowl.
And it appears that Charley Armey the new GM and Mike Martz the new Head Coach (formerly the Offensive Coordinator) after Vermeil retired were good enough to keep a good thing going as long as could be reasonably expected with the talent on hand and what they could do via the draft and Free Agency. But, they were unable to continue success beyond expectations because they (and their successors) were unable to reload with either A) SuperStar Franchise QB; or, B) quality cheap players acquired in the rookie draft (oh, and the better season you have, the farther back in each round you draft).
Best Players drafted by Armey/Martz (per Career AV as calculated by pro-football-reference)
2000 - 30 AV - Tackle John St Clair in the 3rd Round (traded away after 2 seasons)
2001 - 58 AV - Defensive Tackle Ryan Pickett in the 1st Round (departed as FA after 5th Season and played another 8 years) (Oh, and STL had 3 1st round picks that year)
2002 - 25 AV - Defensive Back Travis Fisher in the 2nd Round
2003 - 41 AV - Linebacker Scott Shanle in the 7th Round (cut after 1st season)
2004 - 75 AV - RB Steven Jackson in the 1st Round
2005 - 78 AV - QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in the 7th Round (and all of 135 pass attempts in his 2 years with Rams) & 62 AV for Guard Richie Incognito drafted in the 3rd round (who got traded mid-way through his 4th season with the Rams)
And now freaking Jay Zygmunt becomes GM (before he had technically been the GM's boss as President of Operations) and as GM is now fully in charge of the draft for the Rams (or at least in charge of the department that evaluates/chooses the college players in the draft)
2006 - 13 AV - Defensive End Victory Adeyanju (plays 4 years for the Rams and then is out of the NFL)
2007 - 22 AV - Defensive End Adam Carriker
The Rams clearly lacked the front office talent and organizational culture to become anything other than what they became OTL. Which wasn't bad in the Martz/Armey years. It just offered no path forward once the benefits of the Vermeil years finally aged out.
I don't see how winning a 2nd Super Bowl in 2001 is going to change any of that.
Georgia Frontiere did not die until 2007/2008. No change in organization/culture is going to happen until after her death and the rise of a new ownership. Alas, the cast of Ram's mediocrity had already been set by that point.
The Rams had a great 5 year run from 1999 through 2003.
97 - Vermeil as Coach - 5 and 11 record (GM: Dick Vermeil)
98 - Vermeil as Coach - 4 and 12 record (GM: Dick Vermeil)
99 - Vermeil as Coach - 13 and 3 record; win the Super Bowl (GM: Dick Vermeil)
00 - Martz as Coach - 10 and 6 record; lose in 1st round of playoffs (GM: Charley Armey)
01 - Martz as Coach - 14 and 2 record; lose the Super Bowl (GM: Charley Armey)
02 - Martz as Coach - 7 and 9 record (GM: Charley Armey)
03 - Martz as Coach - 12 and 4 record; lose in the 2nd round of playoffs (bye in the 1st round) (GM: Charley Armey)
04 - Martz as Coach - 8 and 8 record (GM: Charley Armey)
05 - Martz fired mid season - 6 and 10 record (GM: Charley Armey)
06 - Linehan as Coach - 8 and 8 record (GM: Jay Zygmunt)
The organizations next winning season and playoff appearance: 2017 (as LA Rams).
With the nature of the salary cap and the brutal nature of attrition that is an NFL season and an NFL career, having a non-losing season for multiple consecutive seasons (let alone deep runs in the playoffs) is really, really difficult.
Winning Teams have losing teams vulturing Free Agent talent off of them in the off-season. Teams already paying prime dollars for existing stars have less money because of the salary cap to spend to keep their own talented drafted players who become Free Agents themselves after their first 4 or 5 (in the case of first round picks) years in the league. AND, drafted players become more expensive to a degree as they progress from year 2 to 3 to 4 (and to 5) and their annual salaries automatically increase per the collective bargaining agreement.
And NOT just players, but coaches too get vultured. Assistant Coaches on Playoff Teams get offered Coordinator jobs on other teams (Pro or college). Coordinators get offered head coaching jobs.
And players age and get hurt. Football is not pattycake.
The Marshall Faulk of ages 25 - 27 when he came in 2nd-1st-2nd in MVP voting with 2200, 2400, and 2100 yards from scrimmage of the 1999-2001 seasons was not the same Marshall Faulk who gained 1500, 1100, and 1100 yards from scrimmage at ages 29 and 31. And certainly not the Marshall Faulk of age 33 who was no longer playing in the NFL.
It seems pretty obvious that Dick Vermeil built the Rams into the winning Team that it was 1999 through 2003; even though he left after 1999 when he won the Super Bowl.
And it appears that Charley Armey the new GM and Mike Martz the new Head Coach (formerly the Offensive Coordinator) after Vermeil retired were good enough to keep a good thing going as long as could be reasonably expected with the talent on hand and what they could do via the draft and Free Agency. But, they were unable to continue success beyond expectations because they (and their successors) were unable to reload with either A) SuperStar Franchise QB; or, B) quality cheap players acquired in the rookie draft (oh, and the better season you have, the farther back in each round you draft).
Best Players drafted by Armey/Martz (per Career AV as calculated by pro-football-reference)
2000 - 30 AV - Tackle John St Clair in the 3rd Round (traded away after 2 seasons)
2001 - 58 AV - Defensive Tackle Ryan Pickett in the 1st Round (departed as FA after 5th Season and played another 8 years) (Oh, and STL had 3 1st round picks that year)
2002 - 25 AV - Defensive Back Travis Fisher in the 2nd Round
2003 - 41 AV - Linebacker Scott Shanle in the 7th Round (cut after 1st season)
2004 - 75 AV - RB Steven Jackson in the 1st Round
2005 - 78 AV - QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in the 7th Round (and all of 135 pass attempts in his 2 years with Rams) & 62 AV for Guard Richie Incognito drafted in the 3rd round (who got traded mid-way through his 4th season with the Rams)
And now freaking Jay Zygmunt becomes GM (before he had technically been the GM's boss as President of Operations) and as GM is now fully in charge of the draft for the Rams (or at least in charge of the department that evaluates/chooses the college players in the draft)
2006 - 13 AV - Defensive End Victory Adeyanju (plays 4 years for the Rams and then is out of the NFL)
2007 - 22 AV - Defensive End Adam Carriker
The Rams clearly lacked the front office talent and organizational culture to become anything other than what they became OTL. Which wasn't bad in the Martz/Armey years. It just offered no path forward once the benefits of the Vermeil years finally aged out.
I don't see how winning a 2nd Super Bowl in 2001 is going to change any of that.
Georgia Frontiere did not die until 2007/2008. No change in organization/culture is going to happen until after her death and the rise of a new ownership. Alas, the cast of Ram's mediocrity had already been set by that point.
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FYI, before 2011 this advantage largely didn't exist, due to the fact that there was no set rookie wage scale and they could negotiate their rookie contracts as they saw fit. Hence why you saw madness like Sam Bradford's 6-year, $78-million rookie contract.
Short term, things may change, especially if the Rams win big. OTL proved that the Pats were a tough out, but remember that the Rams were heavy favorites before the game, and for good reason.
The real issue may be enough goodwill to lead St. Louis to help renovate the Dome and keep them around. A good enough stadium may keep the Rams local and mean the Raiders and Chargers go to LA instead.
The Pats will still win their share of titles and the Rams will still struggle for some time, and they’re probably still stuck with Kroenke (though his hands may be tied in terms of moving the team.)
The real issue may be enough goodwill to lead St. Louis to help renovate the Dome and keep them around. A good enough stadium may keep the Rams local and mean the Raiders and Chargers go to LA instead.
The Pats will still win their share of titles and the Rams will still struggle for some time, and they’re probably still stuck with Kroenke (though his hands may be tied in terms of moving the team.)
I think that if Warner and Faulk stayed healthy or didn’t get injured as much they would have remained a championship contender for at least the next few years. Also helped that the only real competition in their division was Seattle as the 49ers were starting to fall apart and the Cardinals in the early 2000’s were trash.
Thanks for the rules era clarification. Too much recency bias on my part, clearly.
Still, the basic idea is accurate. In order to support the super star salaries on a team and remain competitive, cheap quality players need to be found and the draft is usually the best way to do it.
Few are the undrafted Free Agents or swipes off some other team's practice squad who go on to be quality every game contributors, let alone pro-bowlers