What if Zephyr Teachout won the NY governor's primary?

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Deleted member 1487

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zephyr_Teachout
Running against Governor Cuomo in NY state in the Democratic primary, she got around 35% of the vote as an essentially no-name candidate and all the power brokers in the state lining up for Cuomo, even Mayor de Blasio of NYC, who was in the middle of a fight with Cuomo over taxes to pay for pre-K education. The Working Families Party in NY state, who had been screwed over by Cuomo repeatedly also supported him, only to have to welch on their pre-primary deal after he won. Still he won by a far smaller than expected margin, probably due to his alleged corruption. Had the power brokers in the state defected against him, say with de Blasio and the Working Families Party, with perhaps even the unions going against him too, he could have easily lost the primary. The lack of supporting ground game seriously hurt Teachout's campaign, which having the above support would have probably tipped the scale against Cuomo.

So what happens if everyone on the left was so fed up with Cuomo that they took the risk and campaigned against him, causing him to lose the primary against Teachout? What happens then in the general election; does the relatively unknown Teachout lose to the GOP candidate? If she wins the general election does she then have the ability to change much in the state as governor? What wider implications does it have for the state and nation? It seems that her strong performance IOTL has scuppered Cuomo's ambitions to run for president at some point in the future, something he is reportedly livid about. What would it mean for NYC and de Balsio to have a true progressive in the Governor's mansion in Albany? Would she be able to deal with the 'Democrats' that defected from the party to caucus with the GOP in the NY state senate (something Cuomo said he would do and then never did)?
 

Redhand

Banned
I don't see how it makes Cuomo have no chance at the presidency. He is very popular with the establishment Democrats and just because he had a primary that was a bit more competitive doesn't make him a bad candidate. He has the kind of connections to make a run, even if he has to rely on the non-Progressive wing of the party and his name and personal popularity.

Of course, if anything does hurt him, it would be the fact that New York had several Congressional seats flip to the Republicans, and he might be blamed for that.
 
Gorrister

Gorrister

If he loses, he's certainly out of luck if he wants to run for President. Losing to an unknown person like Teachout would be so embarrassing.

If she had won, I think that Howie Hawkins might've dropped out and supported her. Even if he didn't, she'd probably win by 5-10% because of the partisan lean New York has.
 

Dathi THorfinnsson

spookyscaryskeletons said:
If he loses, he's certainly out of luck if he wants to run for President. Losing to an unknown person like Teachout would be so embarrassing.

If she had won, I think that Howie Hawkins might've dropped out and supported her. Even if he didn't, she'd probably win by 5-10% because of the partisan lean New York has.
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Ya. If Cuomo can't win NEW YORK, he's not going to win anywhere else.

I can't imagine Teachout actually winning. But it would be amusing if she got closer. As it was, it was a massive PR blow to Cuomo, and also the Workers and Family Party.

It would be nice to have a Democrat in Albany instead of a Republican in sheep's clothes.

I certainly know people who voted for Howie because Cuomo was too toxic.


PS: shouldn't this be in Political Chat?
 

Deleted member 1487

Is this political chat material? I thought this forum was even for political what ifs.
 

OnlyAlb

Cuomo starts the New York for Cuomo party. :p

In all seriousness, what are the possibilities of Cuomo running as an independent?

Or maybe as a Republican?:p
 
Gorrister

Gorrister

OnlyAlb said:
Cuomo starts the New York for Cuomo party.

In all seriousness, what are the possibilities of Cuomo running as an independent?

Or maybe as a Republican?
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He was nominated by the Working Families Party, so he might run on that, though he could also drop out of that (but with a slimeball like cuomo, who knows?).
 

Fubart Solman

spookyscaryskeletons said:
He was nominated by the Working Families Party, so he might run on that, though he could also drop out of that (but with a slimeball like cuomo, who knows?).
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It would be interesting to see the Working Families Party run a candidate to the right of the Democrats. That would've been like the 1934 gubernatorial race in California where Upton Sinclair ran to the left and a Progressive Party reformed temporarily with a relative centrist. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_gubernatorial_election,_1934 and a map here: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=6&year=1934&f=0&off=5&elect=0
 
Ariosto

Ariosto

It would have been more likely for Teachout to have won the Working Families nomination than the Democratic nomination, even despite its Caucus format, if only because she had far more support there than she ever had on the State-level. If it became a race between Cuomo, Astirno and Teachout however, the later on the Working Families ticket, it all comes down to turnout. If the turnout is similar to what it was in OTL, Teachout underperforms her polling numbers as Hawkins did but still is able to easily claim the C line for the Working Families Party, while driving Cuomo's margins to the single digits.

Hawkins probably wouldn't drop out, if only because the Green Party regularly needs to attain fifty thousand votes in order to maintain ballot access in the state. Its not impossible given Teachout would initially be polling very well next to Astirno and Cuomo, but its a bit of a gamble, and I'm not sure if Teachout is totally compatible with the political philosophy of the Green Party to warrant such a move.
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Emperor Julian

If Teachout won the Working Families nomination, but Cuomo won the Democratic Primary, how much of the popular vote would she have gotten? Cuomo won by such a huge margin that he could win reelection even if she won 12%.
 

Seleucus

Ariosto said:
It would have been more likely for Teachout to have won the Working Families nomination than the Democratic nomination, even despite its Caucus format, if only because she had far more support there than she ever had on the State-level. If it became a race between Cuomo, Astirno and Teachout however, the later on the Working Families ticket, it all comes down to turnout. If the turnout is similar to what it was in OTL, Teachout underperforms her polling numbers as Hawkins did but still is able to easily claim the C line for the Working Families Party, while driving Cuomo's margins to the single digits.

Hawkins probably wouldn't drop out, if only because the Green Party regularly needs to attain fifty thousand votes in order to maintain ballot access in the state. Its not impossible given Teachout would initially be polling very well next to Astirno and Cuomo, but its a bit of a gamble, and I'm not sure if Teachout is totally compatible with the political philosophy of the Green Party to warrant such a move.
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Hawkins and Democrats underperformed polling numbers statewide, since turnout in New York was only 28.8% of eligible voters this year. Given how ridiculously low that is, the argument could certainly be made that a separate Working Families candidate would have drawn much more liberals to the polls in New York.
 

EvolvedSaurian

Teachout had no chance at getting the Democratic nomination as long as Cuomo was alive. That is reality. A more interesting WI would be if she or the WFP or both had endorsed Hawkins, IMO.

As for the 'New York for Cuomo Party', that's essentially what the Woman's Equality Party was.
 
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