What is the latest date all of Islam could realistically have been politically unified into a single caliphate?

Unless I'm mistaken, my understanding was that under the Rashidun and Umayyad Caliphates, most if not all islamic lands were unified politically under a single Caliphate. The Umayyads were succeeded by the Abbasids, which, while retaining most of the Islamic world, lost Iberia and some other lands- and from then on, the Islamic world became ever more fractured.

What sort of POD could lead to the Abbasids not losing the lands they did OTL, and how long can they (or their successors) feasibly hold on to this unified empire for?
 
For a start, the Umayyads would have to not manage to take over Al-Andalus, and form a separate dynasty. (EDIT: And no Fatimid dynasty either)

Does having semi-independent vassals count? Because there were various Berber rebellions and breakaway states in Morocco during this period as well.
 
For a start, the Umayyads would have to not manage to take over Al-Andalus, and form a separate dynasty. (EDIT: And no Fatimid dynasty either)

Does having semi-independent vassals count? Because there were various Berber rebellions and breakaway states in Morocco during this period as well.
Semi-independent vassals are permissable, but the more unified and centralised, the better.
 
I think there needs to be some kind of consensus over who exactly gets to become Caliphate, which (probably) needs to be set very early on.

However, no matter how well defined it is, there's no guarantee that there aren't multiple people who claim to be the rightful Caliph. After all, there were periods where more than one person claimed to be the rightful Pope (for a brief period, there were three of them).

Are civil/succession wars permitted, provided that the territorial integrity of the Caliphate is not compromised?
 
Ironically, keeping the caliphate as small as possible might be your best bet. If Muhammad & co unify the Arabian peninsula but fail to expand any further, a unified caliphate could last a very long time indeed.
 
AIUI, part of the problem was that the political "script" for pre-Muslim Arabia, which of course was inherited by the Caliphate, was pretty consensus-based, with leaders having to persuade their subordinates to do things in a way that obviously doesn't scale well when trying to run a vast empire. The Caliphs tried to get around this by purchasing slave soldiers who would (in theory...) be obliged to do whatever they said, but they couldn't afford enough to compel obedience from all the provinces nominally under their rule.

I think, therefore, that to get a lasting Caliphate in anything like its OTL borders, you'd need to have the Arabs adopt a more autocratic model of rule, preferably before their period of expansion begins.
 
Ironically, keeping the caliphate as small as possible might be your best bet. If Muhammad & co unify the Arabian peninsula but fail to expand any further, a unified caliphate could last a very long time indeed.
Agreed. I think the Arabian Peninsula + Levant, Mesopotamia and Egypt are the easiest 'natural borders' of a one-state Islam. Anything beyond that and you get massive population centers (Persia, Anatolia, India) that would not be too keen on the presumably Arab domination of this state, or unwieldy peripheral areas like the Maghreb that are simply too far away from the core to be reliably controlled.

What you could have is for Islam to stay a primarily Arab religion, maybe coalescing into a Judaism-like ethnoreligion ruling over a gradually arabised population in the near east. Once Persians, Turks and Berbers began converting en-mass, political fragmentation became almost inevitable.
 
I mean recognizing the Ottoman Sultan as Caliph.

I came here for the same thing. Having near universal recognition of the Ottoman Caliphate as the modern Caliphate should be doable so long as the Ottomans are in a position to act with the prestige and power expected of a Caliph. Especially if it can deliver tangible aid or reward for doing so(reduced prices on oil, generous loans, etc.). Which I think is doable if you can get an Ottoman hegemony over at least the Levant and Arabia to the modern day. Even better if the Iranians lose control of the Gulf to the Ottomans west of Hormuz or are a part of their state. With the Shiites without a champion and Sunni hegemony in political power, the Ottomans should have a good run of it. Especially if they can make the Sultan's powers more ceremonial, and encouraging a plausible deniability layer between the Caliph and the Ottoman state when they act against Muslim interests.
 
By 717 the caliphate was already breaking apart as seen by the actions of the governors they in the rashidun and Umayyad caliphate already had much power even if the abbasid revolt doesn't happened or is beaten you just need a succession war for the caliphate to break apart
 
What sort of POD could lead to the Abbasids not losing the lands they did OTL, and how long can they (or their successors) feasibly hold on to this unified empire for?
spain is killing any umayyad before they reach there but the berber revolt had occurred by this time so they really cant heal that
 
Perhaps if the Iranians were Sunni and had been less successful in their wars in the East, the Ottomans might have vassalized them? They probably could have achieved more widespread recognition of their claims to be Caliphs that way, but that would still leave the Sahelian Kingdoms and the Mughals.

1686512498084.png
 
Same time the Pan-Arab movement had been all the galore (1950's) but by caliphate, probably 19th Century
 
Its a boring answer, but getting and keeping a single Caliph is doable, but having a unified early medieval empire including both Spain and Transoxia isn't.

Early medieval communications and transport technology were not up to keeping an area that large united, and not having regional governors do their own things and found dynasty. The Achaeminid Persians had a similar empire in terms of territory, but it was still smaller, was overthrown in two and a half centuries, and they had the same issue of parts of the empire rebelling or breaking off.

One Caliph who is sort of a figurehead or similar to the Pope is doable, just avoid the early politics that led to the Sunni/ Shia split. But you have to either settle into a hereditary caliphate in Ali's family, or deal with disputed elections. There is no way there would not be disputed elections. There were disputed elections for the Papacy all the time, with lots of anti-popes, and finally a lengthy period with two Popes.
 
1. Limit the territorial extent of the Caliphate, probably keeping it confined to the same territory as the Achaemenid Persian Empire (Persia, Afghanistan, Transoxiana, Mesopotamia, Syria and the Levant, Egypt, Anatolia, Thrace and the Caucasus) + Arabia, the Horn of Africa and a bit of the Maghreb (Libya and Tunisia) if you want to still maximise it to its feasible limit. (I personally think a modernised and more dynamic Safavid Empire or Timurid Empire could have reached this extent). Make this synonymous with the territorial extent of Islam. Ensure it is territorially contiguous.

2. Arabise or Persianise the Caliphate’s territory (one predominant language and ethnicity), and keep one Islamic sect (Sunni or Shia) overwhelmingly dominant (no real sectarian challengers to central authority).

3. Make the Caliphate hereditary.
 
Last edited:
Are civil/succession wars permitted, provided that the territorial integrity of the Caliphate is not compromised?
Civil/succession wars are permitted, and, you know what, to make it more feasible, we can even go through temporary times of division or fragmentation. Think Rome or China. There have been (sometimes quite long) periods where there have been breakaway states or whatever, but ultimately, both were (before the permanent division of rome into east and west) considered one empire, and have been remembered as such in the history books. So yeah, the question is, how long can all of Islam exist under a single Caliphate for, before permanently fragmenting into different states.

Ottoman Empire if they could break the back of Persia.
But by the time of the Ottoman Empire, Islam had spread way past the Sahara into Africa, past Persia into central Asia, into Hindu majority India, and even all the way to Indonesia. I think it would be much harder for the Ottomans to control all of this, than it would be for the Abbasids to much earlier on simply not lose land/conquer less to start with, and have islam not really spread much beyond their borders (or, more unrealistically, have the Caliphate expand with Islam, though that would be a truly monstrously sized Empire).

Perhaps if the Iranians were Sunni and had been less successful in their wars in the East, the Ottomans might have vassalized them? They probably could have achieved more widespread recognition of their claims to be Caliphs that way, but that would still leave the Sahelian Kingdoms and the Mughals.

View attachment 837376
I agree with the point brought up multiple times through this thread that keeping all of islam Sunni is key for this, though I still remain skeptical of the Ottomans being able to expand their control from Timbuktu to Jakarta
Its a boring answer, but getting and keeping a single Caliph is doable, but having a unified early medieval empire including both Spain and Transoxia isn't.

Early medieval communications and transport technology were not up to keeping an area that large united, and not having regional governors do their own things and found dynasty. The Achaeminid Persians had a similar empire in terms of territory, but it was still smaller, was overthrown in two and a half centuries, and they had the same issue of parts of the empire rebelling or breaking off.

One Caliph who is sort of a figurehead or similar to the Pope is doable, just avoid the early politics that led to the Sunni/ Shia split. But you have to either settle into a hereditary caliphate in Ali's family, or deal with disputed elections. There is no way there would not be disputed elections. There were disputed elections for the Papacy all the time, with lots of anti-popes, and finally a lengthy period with two Popes.
Hereditary caliphate would certainly make more long term stability, as has also been said multiple times in the thread. Yes I agree :)
1. Limit the territorial extent of the Caliphate, probably keeping it confined to the same territory as the Achaemenid Persian Empire (Persia, Afghanistan, Transoxiana, Mesopotamia, Syria and the Levant, Egypt, Anatolia, Thrace and the Caucasus) + Arabia, the Horn of Africa and a bit of the Maghreb (Libya and Tunisia) if you want to still maximise it to its feasible limit. (I personally think a modernised and more dynamic Safavid Empire or Timurid Empire could have reached this extent). Make this synonymous with the territorial extent of Islam. Ensure it is territorially contiguous.

2. Arabise or Persianise the Caliphate’s territory (one predominant language and ethnicity), and keep one Islamic sect (Sunni or Shia) overwhelmingly dominant (no real sectarian challengers to central authority).

3. Make the Caliphate hereditary.
Yeah I think this does summarise the main prerequisites for this to take place. Though, by islams nature, it does seek to convert, so I wonder how we can avoid muslim majority states appearing beyond the borders of this State?
 
If the Caliphate has to remain a genuine political unit indefinitely, then it might be better to have something resembling the old Persian empire. (Iran + Levant + Egypt + Arabia obviously)
1686589168610.png

That does leave the problem of conversions outside of that area, but we'll assume that there aren't any Muslim-majority states beyond the Caliphate itself.
 
Top