White Russia

[Colossalmeat123]

lets say the white russians win the 1917 russian civil war what would happen then i admit i know very little about this subject but would russia end up becoming a giant democratic superpower to rival the u.s. at some later point in time

 

[Nikephoros]

lets say the white russians win the 1917 russian civil war what would happen then i admit i know very little about this subject but would russia end up becoming a giant democratic superpower to rival the u.s. at some later point in time

What's more likely (assuming they can win) is that some sort of Fascist-esque state arises.

 

[RatCatcher]

What's more likely (assuming they can win) is that some sort of Fascist-esque state arises.

To establish "Fascist-esque" state you have to have enough fashists. I think it would be usual military dictatorship, something like in Hungaria.

 

[rast]

The Whites winning in 1917 is rather improbable. In 1917 one of the existing governments could beat the revolutionaries.
So, either the Tsar's one beats the bourgeois revolution, or the bourgeois (Kerenski) government beats the Bolsheviks. As both governments had no intention to bail out of the war, you'd probably get a third revolution in early 1918 (probably Menshevik dominated).
Result: Russia gets out of the war, concludes peace with Central Powers.
CP act as IOTL, lose war.
"Socialist" government in Russia is not as offensive to Entente and US as Bolsheviks, so no intervention and no support for Whites. In turn Russia agrees to repay war loans and debts to France and Britain.
Could mean a bright future for the Russians.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Actually anything could happen; Monarchy Restored, Military Dictatorship, Democratic Republic, Authoritarian Republic etc. Depend on which factions of the whites that come strongest out of the civil war.
The hardest thing would be to get the Whites to win the RCW though; they lacked both popular support as well coordinated cooperation between the generals. Somehow they need to get both to win.

 

[CanadianGoose]

To establish "Fascist-esque" state you have to have enough fashists. I think it would be usual military dictatorship, something like in Hungaria.

Black Hundreds were sort of instant, ready-mix, prefabricated fascists you are looking for. Throw natural Civil War radicalization into the mix (for example, Cossacks could turn to "proto-fascism" en masse after early Communist attempts of de-cossackisation), and you might find enough popular support for right-wing dictatorship to turn it from "junta" (military dictatorship with limited popular support) into "fascism" (totalitarian regime actively supported by either majority or significant minority of population).

That said, most of pre-Revolution popular movements in Russia were so left-leaning, fascism in White Russia doesn't seem likely. And than again, Mussolini did start as a socialist firebrand...

 

[I Blame Communism]

lets say the white russians win the 1917 russian civil war what would happen then i admit i know very little about this subject but would russia end up becoming a giant democratic superpower to rival the u.s. at some later point in time

One can't say in sweeping terms that White victory will result in X. Every white victory if a differant scenario, and all of them are unlikely. Sad but true.

I do think that whatever they had said about restoring the monarchy or protecting the repulic or whatever else, the main white generals would probably set up a junta and run things themselves, at least for a while. Their falling out is a big possibility, given Kolchak's ambition and how terribly they co-operated in the OTL war.

 

[Tuhachevskey]

i think, that 2nd civil war-"Democrates vs Monarchists" could appear

 

[Kome]

It really depends on how they win. meh

 

[RatCatcher]

Black Hundreds were sort of instant, ready-mix, prefabricated fascists you are looking for. ...

Actually they were very similar to PSR, but clericals and monarchists
First give me POD and then it is possible to discuss what it will be. Did whites win Civil War or Reds never came to power?

 

[Passepartout]

The other day I had an interesting idea where some sort of dictatorship came to power instead of the Communists, and ends up like Fascist Spain, less in the Fascism but more in the Restoration.

 

[CanadianGoose]

Actually they were very similar to PSR, but clericals and monarchists

Yes, and that's why I hinted on Mussolini started as Socialist. Part of SRs could (and most likely would, given appropriate environment) turn fascists, as in "left-leaning wing of OTL Italian fascists".

The other day I had an interesting idea where some sort of dictatorship came to power instead of the Communists

I fully agree with RatCatcher: there're too many possible outcomes, from OTL to weak KMT-styled fractionalized Russia of Kerensky to "limited democratic" Russia along Putinist lines to military junta to monarchy restoration (almost ASB, but OTL development was pretty ASBish to begin with) to fascism. I find Nazism almost impossible though, given multi-ethnic makeup of Russian Empire and (largely absent in Germany) century-old Russian experience of co-habitation with ethnic groups of various skin colours and religious beliefs.

 

[Passepartout]

I fully agree with RatCatcher: there're too many possible outcomes, from OTL to weak KMT-styled fractionalized Russia of Kerensky to "limited democratic" Russia along Putinist lines to military junta to monarchy restoration (almost ASB, but OTL development was pretty ASBish to begin with) to fascism. I find Nazism almost impossible though, given multi-ethnic makeup of Russian Empire and (largely absent in Germany) century-old Russian experience of co-habitation with ethnic groups of various skin colours and religious beliefs.

Indeed, the precise nature of the post civil war regime is incredibly hard to predict. I find my idea somewhat unlikely but entertaining to think about.

 

[Broz]

is it plausible that the Bolsheviks lose more ground during 1918 making one or more "white" governments possible, but that the whole "white" movement collapses into another series of civil wars, with both the Bolsheviks and the various blue and green armies playing a role, ending up with a number of Red, White, Blue and Green states, as well as indipendent hetmanats, khanates, tribal unions etc...?

 

[CanadianGoose]

is it plausible that the Bolsheviks lose more ground during 1918 making one or more "white" governments possible, but that the whole "white" movement collapses into another series of civil wars, with both the Bolsheviks and the various blue and green armies playing a role, ending up with a number of Red, White, Blue and Green states, as well as indipendent hetmanats, khanates, tribal unions etc...?

It does not strike me as too likely. War between "Reds" and "Whites" was truly a war for extermination. Either one survives and hunts other down, or another. So, either Red victory or White victory (yes, Whites could go down in another civil war, but it would be another war). Any other outcome needs full-time assistance of specially assigned butterflies and ASBs to make it happen.

 

[I Blame Communism]

It does not strike me as too likely. War between "Reds" and "Whites" was truly a war for extermination. Either one survives and hunts other down, or another. So, either Red victory or White victory (yes, Whites could go down in another civil war, but it would be another war). Any other outcome needs full-time assistance of specially assigned butterflies and ASBs to make it happen.

"War for extermination"? I don't think you mean that. Possibly you mean "War to the finish" or something? But certainly not extermination.

In any case I disagree. I believed Kolchak had a Siberian flag designed, declaring separation from European Russia being his back-up plan. I know there was actually a brief "far eastern republic" but i know little about it and I think it may have been a red creation. And of course there were the Cossacks...

 

[CanadianGoose]

"War for extermination"? I don't think you mean that.

I did not mean "extermination of enemy combattants", I mean "extermination of opposed political entity". I don't believe in some "Frozen Civil War", if there're no ethnical issues between one color and another (OTL USSR of 1922-1940 was as far as "break-up of Russian Empire along ethnic lines" could go, Ukrainian nationalism wasn't powerful enough at this point to rally main body of Ukrainians under it's banner). Either Reds would wipe White regimes of Russia's map, or vice versa.

In any case I disagree. I believed Kolchak had a Siberian flag designed, declaring separation from European Russia being his back-up plan.

Kolchak could design flag for Most Benevolent Republic of Mars and Venus and declare himself Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Seas. Question is, would ordinary Russian support it and what chances does he have to hold Siberia against Red European Russia.

I know there was actually a brief "far eastern republic" but i know little about it and I think it may have been a red creation.

It was a Red creation and it could turn White would stars be favourable to it, but it is almost ASB.

And of course there were the Cossacks...

Again, they wouldn't have a chance against Red Muskovy. And Cossack regions were not uniformly anti-Communist too, far from it.

 

[RatCatcher]

" I believed Kolchak had a Siberian flag designed, declaring separation from European Russia being his back-up plan. ...

It have never happened. Kolchak never united with Siberian separatists. He alvays declared fighting for "united Russia"

 

[I Blame Communism]

I did not mean "extermination of enemy combattants", I mean "extermination of opposed political entity". I don't believe in some "Frozen Civil War", if there're no ethnical issues between one color and another (OTL USSR of 1922-1940 was as far as "break-up of Russian Empire along ethnic lines" could go, Ukrainian nationalism wasn't powerful enough at this point to rally main body of Ukrainians under it's banner). Either Reds would wipe White regimes of Russia's map, or vice versa.
Kolchak could design flag for Most Benevolent Republic of Mars and Venus and declare himself Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Seas. Question is, would ordinary Russian support it and what chances does he have to hold Siberia against Red European Russia.It was a Red creation and it could turn White would stars be favourable to it, but it is almost ASB.Again, they wouldn't have a chance against Red Muskovy. And Cossack regions were not uniformly anti-Communist too, far from it.

Indeed indeed indeed. I never said that the whites could actually win. It's very, very unlikely and needs an early PoD. All I said was that dividing Russian isn't any less likely than white victory, whereas you said "either reds or whites" asthough the whites sweeping into Moscow and obliterating communism forever is more plausible than someone managing to prop them up in the Crimea. Neither of them is particularly plausible, but why is the second why so completely impossible?

Source on that Ukrainian comment?

At the risk of straying from history to English, "war of extermination" was a strange way to phrase it. It may meet the strict definition, but you say war of extermination, I think Bosnia. "War of Anhilation", possibly?

My Cossack comment was not intended to mean "all Cossack were staunch whites", only "the Cossacks are a real example of seperatism in what we would consider to be an integral part of Russia."

It have never happened. Kolchak never united with Siberian separatists. He alvays declared fighting for "united Russia"

I'm no expert, you're probably right. Nevertheless, my original point (a divided Russia isn't any less likely, and possibly moreso, than a white victory, which is of course unlikely) remains unchanged. There's nothing to stop Kolchak ruling United Russia from Omsk (except the Red Army, I said it was unlikely). The Germans managed to keep up appearences for the whole cold war, after all.

 

[CanadianGoose]

Indeed indeed indeed. I never said that the whites could actually win.

And I never said they could not. Heck, would they have real undisputed leader (Kornilov?) instead of bickering between Kolchak, Yudenitch, Denikin, Wrangel to name just main ones (there was plenty of open rivalry within White military ranks) or would they be lucky enough to merge Denikin and Kolchak forces somewhere in Lower Volga, Reds could have been finished (AFAIR Lenin was seriously considering possibility of military loss as late as 1919). But "Red Moscow and White Ekaterinburg" is a kind of arrangement which could not be long-term.

All I said was that dividing Russian isn't any less likely than white victory... Neither of them is particularly plausible, but why is the second why so completely impossible?

Too unstable. Basically you need to balance a whole Himalaya range on a single rock to get two countries equally powerful (powerless) to prevent them from attacking each other.

Source on that Ukrainian comment?

No single source, really. But even WP (source I absolutely loathe as far as Russian and especially Soviet victory is concerned) does contain some hints, if you want to do some data mining. Ukraine became a mishmash of local and foreign armed forces at this time, with UNR (separatist Ukrainian entity) failing to attract or dragoon more then several tens of thousands soldiers to their banner. Not only Reds had more success in recruitment, completely volunteer units of Makhno had more fighters than Petliura could count on. If it is not a proof of lack of Ukrainian separatism, what is?

At the risk of straying from history to English, "war of extermination" was a strange way to phrase it.

Accepted. I mean, one force wanted completely destroy the other, and vice versa.

"the Cossacks are a real example of seperatism in what we would consider to be an integral part of Russia."

Cossack separatism is greatly overrated. Somewhat similar to "Texan separatism". There's a lot of grumbling, but could you truly imagine Texans fighting Washington for Texan independence? Me neither.

A divided Russia isn't any less likely, and possibly moreso, than a white victory.

And that is one point I disagree with. Unless there's foreign occupation army to maintain division (as in Germany), two Russias are unlikely.