WI: 4+ Axis nations switch sides in 1943

Halagaz

Many Axis-aligned nations had plans to desert the Axis and were engaged in various secret negotiations and overtures with the Allies. Eventually, some of them abandoned these projects, for various reasons; and some tried to change sides in isolation and only too late.

But what if they decided to go through with it? Let's say all or most of the countries engaged in such plans (Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, co-belligerent Finland...) switch sides in autumn 1943, immediately after Italy. How would this affect Germany's war effort? And how would it change the state of post-war Europe?

Hitler would probably want to invade and replace the turncoat regimes with true puppets, but that could only work in some of them - and it would tie up yet more German troops. Would it provoke a coup attempt in Germany itself, or maybe even a successful coup against Hitler?

Do any of these "repentant" Axis regimes have a chance of surviving past the end of the war, and if so, which ones (besides Finland)? Where would the line between Soviet and Western influence be after the war?
 
The Byronic Hero

The Byronic Hero

Finland stands the best chance of survival. They have Sweden as a buffer, the Soviets screening them to the east and south, and have the potential to receive British aid. I'm not even sure the Germans could project forces that far north.
 

kung Zog

I would say Bulgaria (after Italy) stands for best chance of immediate survival. Fairly long from active German fronts, all troops but those occupying Greece and Yugoslavian territory within their borders, no direct war with USSR or the western entente. They could come out quite unscathed.
 

Halagaz

kung Zog said:
I would say Bulgaria (after Italy) stands for best chance of immediate survival. Fairly long from active German fronts, all troops but those occupying Greece and Yugoslavian territory within their borders, no direct war with USSR or the western entente. They could come out quite unscathed.
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Bulgaria does make sense, come to think of it. It was formally at war with the western Allies, but not with the Soviets; separated from Germany by quite a lot of problematic territory; and governed by an aggressive but bland royal dictatorship.

I suspect the only regimes which truly have no chance at all are those whose existence contradict an Allied government-in-exile (i.e. Slovakia).
 
Hrvatskiwi

Hrvatskiwi

I've always kinda wanted to do a short TL on this:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lorković–Vokić_plot

Basically, near the end of the war there was a plot to overthrow the Ustase government in the 'Independent State of Croatia' and install a pro-Western government led by the HSS (Croatian Peasant's Party). Although it didn't end up going through, because of Pavelic catching on and the Allied refusal to invade Dalmatia and liberate the area, I could see a post-war situation with a Communist "Yugoslavia" (really just Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia) led by Tito staring down a Western-oriented, NATO Croatia (which includes Bosnia-Herzegovina). Whatever happens to Slovenia is up in the air. Would likely see a lot of Communist activity in BiH, possibly even a Korean War analog. Would be really interesting, and I'm pro-Tito!
 

Magnum

IMO it requires three things:

1. Bigger disaster on the Eastern Front (e.g. Soviet reach Rostov and cut off entire German Army Group in the Caucasus)
2. Successful Italian defection, including maintaining control of parts of the Balkans
3. Allied ground troops in Greece, possibly in cooperation with the turncoat Italians

Given these, it would not be impossible for Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Croatia and Slovakia to try and change sides (may require a mini-coup in some of them)
 

Halagaz

Hrvatskiwi said:
I've always kinda wanted to do a short TL on this:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lorković–Vokić_plot
Click to expand...

It's an interesting episode. Though I think it was doomed in its OTL shape - especially since the plotters were crazy enough to personally tell Pavelic about their plan and ask for his approval.

Now, if there was a legit Croatian Home Guard/HSS coup, who knows what might happen. Especially if they did it in late 1943, alongside the proposed mass defection of Axis nations. That could mean every Axis member from Italy to Bulgaria, + Finland, abandons the ship. And the puppet leaders in Serbia and Greece (Nedic and Ioannis Rallis) were also secret Allied sympathizers and willing to switch.

Strange to think that Nazi Germany might have suddenly lost every single ally or puppet in the east and south.
 

avernite

Halagaz said:
It's an interesting episode. Though I think it was doomed in its OTL shape - especially since the plotters were crazy enough to personally tell Pavelic about their plan and ask for his approval.

Now, if there was a legit Croatian Home Guard/HSS coup, who knows what might happen. Especially if they did it in late 1943, alongside the proposed mass defection of Axis nations. That could mean every Axis member from Italy to Bulgaria, + Finland, abandons the ship. And the puppet leaders in Serbia and Greece (Nedic and Ioannis Rallis) were also secret Allied sympathizers and willing to switch.

Strange to think that Nazi Germany might have suddenly lost every single ally or puppet in the east and south.
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It also sounds so completely different than history it's hard to even begin to guess what'd happen.

Slovakia is probably dead on arrival, too close to Germany and way too far from allied reinforcements. Romania and Hungary are a bit close to the Russian front (including chunks of their army). The Italians, of course, have some chance but the Po is still scary easy to reach in a train from Germany, so Italy's still likely to be a mess even if they manage to keep some parts of the army to back the royal government, possibly ensuring a more northern frontline in the eventual Italian front (still not likely to get out of the hills before the Germans strike back and establish a frontline). Bulgaria or Greece might get away but also offers the least change from OTL (at least to the war, to their own future it'd probably be helpful to be part of a western-allied frontline which gets about as stuck as the Italian front).

Still, the added expenditure likely ends the war a good bit sooner, and likely with less land held by the Soviets.
 
DrakonFin

DrakonFin

avernite said:
Still, the added expenditure likely ends the war a good bit sooner, and likely with less land held by the Soviets.
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And with an added cost to the countries that make the effort to switch sides this early. Essentially, in comparison to the OTL, their soldiers and civilians would be exchanged for Red Army soldiers and Soviet civilians to hasten the downfall of the Nazi Germany.
 

KACKO

Joe_Ladder said:
Hungary didn't participate in the holocaust until after Hitler installed a puppet.
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Not true. Hungary deported (after Operation Barbarossa started) something between 20 to 40 000 Jews illegally resisting in Hungary to German occupied Ukraine (some from Poland, some from other parts of Germany occupied Europe) directly to hands of Einsatzgruppen. Most were killed outright. Hungary also gained some 16 000 Jews on territory they gained from Yugoslavia in 1941. Some 4000 were sent to Banjica KL on Germna occupied territory where the were killed.

Hungarians often drafted Hewish males into army into labor companies and sent them to Eastern Front where they were used to prepare defenses, clean the mine fields, etc.
From some 10 000 Jews in labor battalions on Eastern Front in September 1942 only 2% survived!
 
Resurgam

Resurgam

KACKO said:
Not true. Hungary deported (after Operation Barbarossa started) something between 20 to 40 000 Jews illegally resisting in Hungary to German occupied Ukraine (some from Poland, some from other parts of Germany occupied Europe) directly to hands of Einsatzgruppen. Most were killed outright. Hungary also gained some 16 000 Jews on territory they gained from Yugoslavia in 1941. Some 4000 were sent to Banjica KL on Germna occupied territory where the were killed.

Hungarians often drafted Hewish males into army into labor companies and sent them to Eastern Front where they were used to prepare defenses, clean the mine fields, etc.
From some 10 000 Jews in labor battalions on Eastern Front in September 1942 only 2% survived!
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True, but do to nationalism, sovereignty and seeing which way the wind was blowing Horthy began to express growing reluctance about involvement in deportation. So much so, Hitler himself flew to Budapest to demand he comply (an episode later used by David Irving to claim Hitler was opposed to the Holocaust).
 
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