WI Allied Victory at Java Sea?

[Fearless Leader]

Part III

Part III: “Bloody May” 4/6/42 – 6/1/42

By April 6th the situation in the Pacific looked dire for the Japanese, Indonesia was becoming increasingly difficult what with the reverses in both Java and Sumatra. Indonesian oil was just now beginning to trickle in and even then allied submarines threatened that vital resource. Not only that but they had also lost the initiative in the theatre, and Yamamoto was planning a do or die operation to try and get it back…

Sumatra
April and May of 1942 saw even more fighting in Northern Sumatra. Allied reinforcements poured in from Java and greatly aided General Overakker in succeeding in a number of offensives, which created a 10 mile buffer zone around the crucial airfield at Medan. Both sides fought hard in dismal conditions losing far more men to jungle diseases than to combat. Sanitary conditions were dismal, not nearly so dismal as the supply conditions. Numerous attempts by the Imperial Guard to break the Allied line were met with staunch resistance and often futile counterattacks. By the end of May 1942 the situation in Java had descended into one of stalemate with both sides unwilling to launch offensives and more than willing to dig in and fortify positions.

Indonesia
The rest of the Dutch East Indies saw basically the commencement of 3 new campaigns. Each aimed at hitting the Japanese where it hurt most. The First of these campaigns was a renewed submarine campaign aimed at crippling the Japanese merchant marine and preventing it from extracting resources from Japanese held Indonesia. Spearheaded by a reorganized Dutch Submarine force and reinforced British and American boats, the Allies soon found themselves wracking up incredibly high tonnage scores against the unescorted un convoyed Japanese Merchantmen. Meanwhile the arrival of 3 new bomber squadrons and the arrival of the RNEIAF’s new contingent of B-25 Mitchell’s signaled the beginning of an advantageous bombing campaign aimed at crippling all the Japanese held assets in Indonesia. This campaign saw the complete and utter destruction of all the valuable assets in Japanese Held Indonesia. The IJAA tried to defend against the Allied air offensive but found itself swatted out of the sky by superior Allied tactics.
(In TTL the tactics which came into play with the Guadalcanal campaign were developed earlier. Partly due to necessity and partly due to the Battle of Java) The most notable targets destroyed were the oilfields of Southern Sumatra and Borneo and the port of Makassar. By the end of the offensive the strategic value of had plummeted and any hope the Japanese had of extracting any resources out of it was in vain.
The third and final major operation in the theatre was the brilliant amphibious operations aimed at recapturing Bali, the Lesser Sunda Islands and Timor. Spearheaded by the No.5 commando unit, the 29th independent infantry Brigade, and the 70th Infantry Division. They completely surprised the Japanese garrison forces and beat them back into the sea with the sheer ferocity of their attack. Supported by nearly all the British eastern fleet the only real resistance was encountered on Timor where the Japanese still had a great deal of troops located. However the crack Australian commando’s offensive from the inland crushed them like a piece of corn between a vice. By the end of May the British offensive had completely regained the Lesser Sunda Islands and Timor re-establishing the crucial link between Australia and Java. The Allies although they suffered tremendous losses also learned many lessons about amphibious operations, lessons that would be incorporated into hundreds of other amphibious invasions throughout the war.

The Epic Battle of the Coral Sea
Even with the Allied Successes in Indonesia, Yamamoto was determined to see his plan through. 8 (6 fleet, 2 light) carriers and 5 divisions had been marshaled for the invasion of Port Moresby and eventually Port Darwin. Against them were arrayed the combined elements of the USN Pacific fleet and some Australian ships. All told 13 carriers were involved in this epic battle. Over 1500 aircraft participated in the nearly weeklong battle that claimed thousands of lives. However both tactically and strategically it was a Allied Victory. All told the Japanese lost around 700 aircraft and crews, pilots were lost that could not be replaced. American fighters using superior tactics swept the skies clean of Japanese fighters allowing the venerable Dauntless and Devastator bombers to move in and wreak havoc on the Japanese. All told the Japanese lost 4 carriers (Akagi, Kaga, Soryu, Zuiho) before contact was lost and they withdrew. The Americans in comparison lost only 2 carriers (Hornet, Saratoga). Several other smaller vessels were lost but they are in consequential to the battle. With the decisive defeat and the withdrawal of the Japanese forces. Port Moresby had been saved. The Japanese Navy now running low on fuel was a spent force.

Outlook
So as the mist of Bloody May clears the advantage lays chiefly with the Allies. With the decisive victory at the Coral Sea, and with the offensives in Indonesia opening up the way for further operations, the situation looks incredibly dire for the Japanese. Hastily improvised convoys are being massacred by Allied Submarines. Japanese oil reserves are running far lower than they should be and their merchant marine is at an almost anemic level. The situation could not get much worse, but it is going to…


Meh... It's a quickie

Any help refining this part of my TL would be awesome

Right Now I am trying to wrap up WWII so I can begin to cover the post war situation...

 

[G.Bone]

This is interesting....Keep going...

 

[Melvin Loh]

Still very interesting posts, Fearless Leader. In this scenario, though, would the RN still have been able to realistically deploy the bulk of its strength in the Far East from Ceylon to SE Asia ? In addition, in terms of air combat, the Allies would still have a rough time of it, since the Zero would still outclass the available Allied fighters such as the RAF Hurricanes, FAA Fulmars, USAAF and RAAF P40 Kittyhawks, USN F4F Wildcats and USAAF P39 Airacobras (which I assume, when they become available, will also be sent as reinforcements to the ABDA forces on Java), and RNEIAF Buffalos and Curtiss Hawks. Also, OTL Churchill in mid-1942 decided to send a full RAF Spitfire wing with 3 sqns to assist in the defence of the NT from Jap air attack, although No. 1 Fighter Wing 'Churchill' only became fully operational to defend Darwin in Jan 1943. How about if in TTL Churchill hurries the approval and deployment of these Spitfires into combat over Java and Darwin ? The Spits could make a possible difference if deployed early enough, although the RAF pilots would initially have a steep learning-curve in taking on the Zeros (OTL, in the 1st raid on Darwin in early 43 which No. 1 Wing defended against, the Spitfires were only able to intercept the Jap bomber force after the bombing had already occurred, and suffered IIRC something like 5 Spits lost due to running out of fuel in exchange for bagging 9 Jap planes- then as time progressed the Spitfire pilots were able to improve their kill ratios).

And what about the dispositions of other Allied land reinforcements- where would the fresh American and battle-hardened Australian divs be deployed into combat ? In addition to the 41st SUNSET Div and the AIF divs returned from the Mideast and North Africa already mentioned, there were other outfits in or en route to Aust or nearby Pacific islands, such as the 32nd (RED ARROW- Michigan and Wisconsin NG), 25th (TROPIC LIGHTNING- Hawaii NG), Americal (formed from various NG units on New Caledonia, such as North Dakota's 164th Inf Regt), and 1st Marine Divs, together with the 7th (HOURGLASS/BAYONET) which OTL was deployed to invade the Aleutians and kick the Japs out there. How could these guys be used in this new Allied offensive around the Malay Barrier ? There were also Aust Military Force, or militia, outfits in both northern Aust and PNG, which were, unlike the AIF, technically only supposed to defend Aust soil from direct enemy attack, and forbidden under Aust law to fight outside Aust territory. Would the AMF still be held in NG to counter any possible Jap moves, such as the 39th (Victoria) and 53rd (NSW) bns did OTL on the Kokoda Track ? What about other outfits like the 1st Armd Div, which became equipped with the domestically-rpoduced Sentinel tank but OTL never saw action ? Would the Aust armoured force be trained as quickly as possible and sent into action in the continued defence on the NEI ?

 

[Melvin Loh]

Native attitudes on Java

Oh, just remembered another exceedinly important issue: what about the effects of the attitudes of the local Javanese to the Allied forces ? OTL, the Javanese and other Muslim inhabitants of the NEI were generally hostile towards and unsupportive of their Dutch colonial masters and other white European troops who were fighting the Japs, due to the indignities suffered thruout centuries of colonialism, and therefore were more than happy to welcome the Nipponese as liberators. The only real areas of undivided loyalty to the Dutch was among the Ambonese, Menadonese and other Christians from the Moluccas/Maluku Islands, who comprised the vast majority of the locally recruited Dutch colonial forces of the KNIL (KONINGLIJK NEDERLANDSCHE INDES LEGER or Royal Dutch East Indian Legion)- which was basically just a large, underequipped, glorified colonial police force. It was due to the Dutch recognition of this hostility among the local ppl in early March 1942 that Gen ter Poorten decided to surrender all ABDA forces to the Japs, since the prospects of carrying on further resistance, including possibly guerilla warfare, were negligible in the light of such fierce Javanese resentment. So, in TTL, how greatly are Allied military advantages negatively affected by the Javanese anti-colonial feeling ? Later in the war, during their occupation of the NEI, the Japs allowed the formation of an Indonesian nationalist govt comprising Hatta, Sukarno and other prominent jailed nationalist politicians, and in 1944 authorised the formation of local nationalist and Islamic militias such as the HIZBOLLAH. In TTL, could Jap secret agents undertake to raise similar lightly-armed local proxies to conduct guerilla warfare against the Dutch and other Allied troops on Java ?

Sorry, I should've brought this issue up earlier.

 

[Fearless Leader]

Melvin: Remember that over Guadalcanal pretty much the same fighters you mentioned in your first post decisively defeated the Japanese Zero. Remember that the Zero was very fragile, the Allied fighters were not. Your responses are more than welcome though, they will all be incorparated into the 2nd Draft of the TL.
Also the Natives on Java are partially the reason that the Allies still have like 10,000 men there. The Japanese are trying to get some kind of resistance going but since they can't seem to get any supplies past the Allied submarines, the resistance has been reduced to a few paltry attacks on KNIL forces etc.

Part IV: A Summer of Malcontent 6/2/42 – 8/7/42

Allied command was overjoyed with the results of the Battle of the Coral Sea. The Mighty Japanese Navy had finally been bested at its own game. Now with the 1st Airfleet lurking back to Truk the Allies prepared for another wave of offensives aimed at driving the Japanese back even further. However the Japanese still had a few tricks left up their sleeve.

Sumatra
Unbeknownst to the Allies, the Japanese too were massing in the Region. With the defeat at the Coral Sea the 5 divisions earmarked for Australia were sent almost immediately to Sumatra where they were rushed to the front. Only to find themselves embroiled in a new Allied offensive, heavily supported by aircraft. Without proper air support the Japanese even with the new troops were forced to retreat. However the offensive quickly bogged down with the allies only gaining around 20 miles of territory. In response to this the Japanese quickly re-routed several Fighter regiments of the IJAA from various theatres. This gave the Japanese temporary air superiority allowing them to launch a counter offensive and drive the Allies back. The losses inflicted on both sides was horrendous. However they were equal. By the end of August the Japanese had advanced a paltry 10 miles only to come up against stiff Allied resistance. All in all the situation in Sumatra had not changed much 2 months of ferocious combat had only seen around 20 miles of land change hands and over 3500 deaths.

Indonesia
In the rest of Indonesia the Allied submarines were wracking up continued successes against the Japanese merchant marine. Besides that forces on Java now had the proper infrastructure to begin supplying resistance movements on the Islands. July saw the embarkation of over 1000 Australian commando’s to the remaining islands under Japanese control. These commando units would prove to be a constant pain in the arse for the Japanese forces stationed there. Most of the action in this theatre however was concentrated in Sumatra and the battles there. With the transfer of new fighter regiments to the area the Allied Airforce soon had a new playmate. Allied fighters now experienced and able to fight the Japanese quite effectively spent the summer engaging these new fighters for control of the air space over Sumatra. However the Japanese were no schmucks either, they fought hard and prevented a total Allied victory. On prominent battle however dominated the scene, the second battle of The Strait of Malacca. This battle was fought primarily between the Allied fighters and bombers at Medan and a Japanese convoy of 10 merchant ships and 6 destroyers protected further by fighters operating out of Japanese airfields in Northern Sumatra and Singapore. The battle was quite literally a turning point in the Indonesian campaign. The Japanese lost 7 Merchant Ships and 4 destroyers to the Allied fighters who employed a new technique known as skip bombing. This allowed the Allied fighters to successfully penetrate the Japanese Air Defense and bomb the convoy with deadly accuracy. Without the supplies from the convoy Horii soon found himself running desperately low on ammunition, food, and medical supplies not to mention other things…

America On the Offensive
With the victory at the Coral Sea and the arrival of more Marine forces it was decided that America should go on the offensive, bypassing Indonesia and attacking the Philippines. Such a strategy proposed by McArthur contrasted greatly with the strategy proposed by Nimitz one which involved a strong thrust through the central Pacific. The problem was that America only had enough carriers to pull off one. In late June it was decided to pursue McArthur’s plan and retake Guam and the Mariana’s in preparation for an assault on the Philippines and later Japan. Pulling up nearly 90% of the Marine Corps the US commenced offensives on the Mariana’s, landing on Guam, Saipan, and Tinian. Fierce fighting erupted on all of the invaded Mariana’s Islands but superior American numbers, training and equipment drove the Japanese off the Islands by the end of August.
(A great deal of the Japanese Army which was in OTL placed on island garrisons were redirected to Indonesia where they beefed up the Garrisons there. Thus the Garrisons on the various Islands and Atolls are much smaller than OTL and of lower quality than OTL.)

The Mariana’s “Turkey Shoot”
With the American invasion of the Mariana’s the Japanese soon saw that the majority of their army would soon be cut off from their homeland. As a result a hurried counteroffensive was organized. Around 5 Brigades were taken from the Borneo Garrison force, they were then sent north to rendezvous with the Japanese 1st Airfleet now consisting of 4 carriers (3 fleet, 1 light). They were then to head to the Mariana’s where they would engage the US fleet assets there and begin retaking the islands. However this was not to be. Australian commandos operating in Borneo managed to Alert the Allies of the troop “convoy”. As a result over 20 submarines were ordered to attack the poor little convoy. And on the night of August 21st the convoy was completely destroyed by a combined American British and Dutch wolf pack, no survivors were recovered. The Japanese fleet meanwhile continued on its death ride, unaware that the Americans had successfully deciphered the Japanese communiqués and were sending the American fleet assets out to meet the Japanese in combat once again. However when the Troop convoy failed to rendezvous with the fleet Nagumo feared the worst and began to turn back towards Truk. But it was too late, the morning of August 22nd saw a Dutch Submarine KXIII spot the Japanese fleet giving the coordinates to the American fleet. The resulting battle saw the Americans engage the battered, beleaguered, first Air fleet and utterly destroy it. Over 300 Japanese aircraft were shot down compared to only 100 American. Also American bombers operating off the carrier Wasp managed to wreak havoc on the Japanese taskforce sinking 2 carriers and forcing the Japanese to once again turn back towards Truk. With that defeat the American victory in the Marianas was complete and they prepared to move on to other objectives in the Pacific.

A little rough, yes and once again I welcome input into this part of the TL and the TL in general to help and refine it.

 

[maxs]

Awesome, I have to say

I've toyed a few times with the much less extensive idea of a successful Dutch submarine campaign before Java, against the Japanese transports, which would have resulted in higher Japanese land casualties in taking Java, and possibly impacted on some other areas in various ways as a result. But my imagination...wasn't able to go further in scope.

A series of happenstances did, indeed, make for quite a bit of the Japanese fortunes right in those earliest days.

The common decisions by naval commanders like British Adm. Tom Thumb Phillips (before Singapore) and Helfrich (before Java) about such small things as not taking along their floatplanes, added to the level of Allied losses and the overall disastrous-ness of the subsequent defeat. Heavier Japanese losses could very well have occurred, with just a change in that decision on the part of the two Allied commanders in question.

Then, with a few odd maneuvers, it's possible the Dutch submarines could have been more successful in apprehending the Japanese land forces while still on the transports, resulting in both heavier Japanese army losses and a longer campaign before success for the Japanese.

I could see those fairly simple things. But these fortunate turns at Java Sea...wow. Talk about pebbles in brooks.

 

[CalBear]

DING-DING-DING​

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