WI: American Civil War starts in 1865

[tallwingedgoat]

What if the South does not secede until Lincoln's second term? This is assuming Lincoln is reelected. Some of the main cast would be a little older, some younger men would play a larger role. Military technology would be a bit more advanced. Both sides would be a little different in terms of industrial development. What about internationally? Russia would not find an American buyer for Alaska in 1967, or would they have sold in the early 60s?

Is this TL possible and would it make any difference?

 

[tallwingedgoat]

No takers? This one is probably more plausible than WI CW starts in 1850 or 1880 that gets tossed around now and then around here.

 

[sflcat]

I'm thinking if Spain had sold the US Cuba in 1848, and Cuba had become a state, then the Civil War might have been delayed.

My reasoning: Since Cuba clearly would have come into the Union as a slave state, there might not have as much blood shed over whether Kansas became a slave or free state. Without this explosion of violence (some consider the "Bloody Kansas" fighting to be the first battles of the Civil War), it is possible the differences between the North and South would have continued to quietly simmer for many more years before erupting into war.

 

[NapoleonXIV]

Repeating rifles and Gatling guns for everybody.

One interesting part is what might have happened what with the big war between France and Germany in 1866. There was a TL about that on here just a month or so age tho I can't find it.

 

[Blue Max]

I think the way to get this to work differently is having Seward win the 1861 Republician Nomination and fail to campaign entirely (as he did for the party nomination OTL), Seward does surprisingly poorly in the 1860 election, and Stephen Douglas becomes president, after John Bell endorses Douglas in a four vote elimination and Breckenridge reluctantly supports Douglas.

Stephen Douglas, however, dies in office and his vice president Herschel Johnson has little political support. Not to mention that the shooting war in Kansas has now spread into Missouri and Arkansas. In the face of this difficult crisis, the Republicans choose Lincoln--a candidate narrowly defeated in the 1860 nomination against Seward, who has increased his own profile during the Douglas Presidency.

The 1864 election represents a partial realignment of political parties: The Democrats are a southern regional political party demanding an expansion of slavery, while Republicans are an outgrowth of the old Whig party and include many former democrats as well. The Third Party is the Constitutional Union Party, still run by John Bell and with the endorsement of Herschel Johnson, Douglas' VP and 17th US President (who has zero political future at this point).

With Bell's Constitutional Unionist bloc weakened as a result of the failed Herschel Presidency, voters look for a change and on largely regional lines, Lincoln is elected in 1864, while Bell gains only a handful of electoral votes. South Carolina opts to secede on the news, and lame duck president Johnson waffles ineffectually as the United States is ripped apart--the Crittenden Compromise is ruled out and South Carolina secedes, followed by other states of the deep south. With the Constitutional Unionist Party itself failing as a result, Lincoln is sworn in as 18th President of the United States.

 

[tallwingedgoat]

I think the way to get this to work differently is having Seward win the 1861 Republician Nomination and fail to campaign entirely (as he did for the party nomination OTL), Seward does surprisingly poorly in the 1860 election, and Stephen Douglas becomes president, after John Bell endorses Douglas in a four vote elimination and Breckenridge reluctantly supports Douglas.

That's ingenious!

So who becomes the Confederate President. Robert E Lee will probably still be Virginia's top general. He's five years older, but not too old I think.

 

[NapoleonXIV]

That's ingenious!

So who becomes the Confederate President. Robert E Lee will probably still be Virginia's top general. He's five years older, but not too old I think.

Lee will die in 1870 of a stroke, he had symptoms of angina in the war but was never incapacitated. There are other generals, Stonewall Jackson may survive, and Nathan Bedford Forrest.

 

[Blizrun]

That's ingenious!

So who becomes the Confederate President. Robert E Lee will probably still be Virginia's top general. He's five years older, but not too old I think.

It all depends on Virginia. Remember, Lee initially spoke against the secession, and never cared one way or the other about slavery. He only sided with the South after Virginia seceded as he couldn't bear the thought of fighting against his neighbors.

And even if Virginia secedes and Lee assumes his place as in OTL, Davis may not be president. A lot of the South's military blunders is the result of Davis trying to micromanage everything about the war.

 

[fhaessig]

Repeating rifles and Gatling guns for everybody.

One interesting part is what might have happened what with the big war between France and Germany in 1866. There was a TL about that on here just a month or so age tho I can't find it.

OTL, the war between France and Prussia ( Germany didn't exist at the time as a state) started
in 1870.
So, how do you go from delayed ACW to Prussia unites Germany before 1866 and then attacks France?
I could see Austria staying longer in the fight and France intervening on the side of the South Germanies as a result of delayed ACW, but not earlier unification by Prussia.

 

[Blue Max]

Lee will die in 1870 of a stroke, he had symptoms of angina in the war but was never incapacitated. There are other generals, Stonewall Jackson may survive, and Nathan Bedford Forrest.

Lee might make it a couple of months later, owing to less stress for some of his life, but that 1870 figure is probably pretty solid. Lee might have taken a large role in the Federal Government as a result of the Douglas-Johnson government, probably would have been tapped in some capacity over the ever increasing Kansas-Missouri-Arkansas Crisis.

Top choices for CSA President:
John C. Breckinridge (The Southern Secessionist Leader in the 1860 Election)
Alexander Stephens (Davis' VP)
Jeff Davis (OTL)
Might want to take a good look at Southern Leaders and Congressmen to understand where they stood on these issues for a more detailed answer.

If we are cool with my exposition, I think the first step is going to be resolving the fall of the Unionist Party and whether that works more or less in favor of the South as OTL. In OTL, Kentucky went neutral, Virginia and Tennessee joined the CSA (Although Eastern Tennessee wanted to leave) and West Virginia joined the Union. To some degree, this represents terrain and the lack of appeal slavery had for subsistence farmers.

The Main difference, I suppose, is whether John Bell was steering towards or away from Lincoln and towards Breckinridge. Once all of the small concerns are deciphered, the big story is probably ready to rip.

 

[Johnrankins]

The only way the Civil War will break out in 1865 is if the Republicans don't win the presidency. It goes worse for the South as the North is four years stronger. It will gain more population, industrialization and railroads then the South. It might win quickly enough for the South to retain slavery.

 

[Blue Max]

Situation: March 4, 1865 (Date of the Lincoln Inauguration).

President Johnson's spectacular failure in holding the nation could not be more apparent. Arguably, there had been a civil war raging in Kansas and expanding into its neighbors for the last eight years. The Wyandotte Constitution had not been approved, nor had the three attempts before it or the two that followed it. Not for any lack of trying: Charles L. Robinson had managed to raise a militia of some 1000 men based in Lawrence, Kansas. These ten thousand men would fight pro-slavery fighters in their own state and launch incursions into Missouri for their own involvement in this struggle. Missouri Senator David Rice Atchison was largely responsible for the buildup of slavery "Border Ruffians". Although small in number compared to the fighting that would follow, the Kansas situation (and its impact on Missouri) was considerable.

Aside from Pro-Union Sam Houston of Texas, most of the states of the OTL CSA were led by southern Democrats. Complicating the whole situation was the actions of John Bell of Virginia and Harry Crittenden of Kentucky, calling on their states to remain neutral in the rising conflict. South Carolina, which had nearly seceded in 1860 until it was deduced that Seward would not win the Presidency, had already made the plunge and Alabama, Lousiana and Florida had flatly threatened to leave if a Republican was elected.

And for the past eight years, the future Confederates have been preparing for a fight--stockpiling weapons, foodstuffs, munitions, and horses. They might be in no position to keep up with the Unions rising industrial strength, but they've had much more time to keep their resources together. The Union, lead by Buchanan and then by Johnson, might have the economic strength but they aren't anywhere near as ready for a brawl.

And on this day, Abraham Lincoln is sworn in as 18th President of the United States.

 

[Dave Howery]

more advantage to the Union.... they'd have more immigration, more industry, more capital... the south was poor and getting poorer and still wouldn't have much industry or railroads, compared to the north...

 

[River of Death]

Seward was very strong against slavery - originally he came from the Free-Soil party, not even Whig. So, assuming as the BP that he becomes the Republican nominee, the powers who be in the party, such as Bates and Chase...

please skip the following nested parentheses if you want a summary

...(who were themselves candidates for the nomination, but they had mostly sectional support [the mechanics of the process in OTL was really everybody else trying to make sure that Seward did not get the nomination {'cause they all knew that he was really strict and probably could not carry Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, the 4 'border states' that the Republicans lost in 1856 <and granted that, they lined up behind Lincoln because they thought he was more likely to be a comprimise and hence win votes /and it didn't hurt matters that he had worked behind the scenes for a while before hand and got the convention moved to Chicago in his home state\ which proved to be true, largely because he took a comprimise position, which was largely because he believed in the position, which Seward could not do> recalling that Seward was hard-core, he probably could not hold this comprimise position and so would lose at least some of the 4 aforementioned states} and Bates and Chase hated Lincoln for a while afterwards, they also hated their home states for supporting them half-heartedly] and ultimately, Seward derived his strength from New York and parts of New England, not enough to take the nomination against a strong co-alition as in OTL)

...phew...

...would, out of necessity, assign the platform to be a comprimise platform. Seward, on principle, could not hold totally to this platform, and so lose a few 'border states', in this context meaning Il, In, Pa, and NJ (the ones the Republicans lost in 1856). More importantly, it woud remove such a hard-line position from the other parties. If the Democrats still split, then Douglass would not have much of a following.

More likely would be the Constitutional Union party gaining votes. Besides carrying the OTL definition border states, they would probably get some of the key Republican states.

It seems safe to say that, with only the deep south Breckenridge will not have enough electoral votes. It seems also clear that, with the upper south and a few 'border states', Bell will also not have enough. However, having lost some key states (let's say Pennsylvania and Illinois go CU, Indiana stays Republican, and New Jersey goes for Douglass as in OTL), Seward as well will not have enough electoral votes.

Then, it is a matter of politics. Essentially Douglass is now out of the running. If we arrange the other three candidates in order from south to north: Breckenrige, Bell, Seward, and say that the Republicans want a candidate as far north as possible, Seward will be out because the Republicans are smart and don't want a civil war. They will throw all of their votes in the House of Representatives behind Bell, and that combination will make Bell the 16th President.