WI: Archduke Leopold assassinated in May 1914 in Zagreb

[Halagaz]

On 25 May 1914 a group of Croat anarchists tried to assassinate Archduke Leopold Salvator and Ivan Skerlecz (the governor of Croatia-Slavonia) in Zagreb's Opera house. It didn't go as planned.

WI they succeeded? Would it affect the internal and external situation of A-H in any major ways, and if so, how?

 

[abc123]

It depends, if links of Rudolf Hercigonja with Narodna odbrana from Serbia are found, you can expect similar events like OTL. OTOH, Hercigonja was an anarchist ( and maybe a communist too, unknown, but he later was one of founding members of Communist Party ). so who really knows what were his real reasons, influence from Serbia or anarchism in general...

 

[Halagaz]

His reasons seem to have been a mix of both those things...as far as I can tell anyway.

Franz Ferdinand will still be alive in the aftermath of the assassination (and maybe they'll even be smart enough to postpone his trip to Sarajevo until further notice). Together with how Hercigonja and Schaffer's connections to Serbia are weaker and less clear than Princip's, the result might be something very different from OTL's July events. Though Tizsa may be pissed enough at the death of his Ban to change his usual views.

 

[abc123]

Indeed. But, considering that FF was generally against war, I don't think that A-H would declare war about this assasination.