WI: B-26 hits Akagi Bridge during Midway

[High Plains Drifter]

While on vacation at my parents, picked up and started reading a 1960s copy of Walter Lord's Incredible Victory.

Was surprised to read that the second strike from Midway against the Kido Butai with B-26s almost resulted in a B-26 hitting the bridge of the Akagi.

What if in fact that B-26 had hit the bridge of the Akagi, killing everyone on it. This would including Admiral Nagumo, his chief of staff Admiral Kusaka, the Akagi's Captain Aoki, and the naval aviation planner Commander Genda.

How might the Battle of Midway changed because of A) the loss of senior personnel, and B) the damage to the Akagi herself?

 

[Gridley]

Realistically, Midway can't come out much better for the US than OTL. Sinking the four IJN fleet carriers present was a major victory, but afterward the USN didn't have enough combat-ready bombers to make additional strikes worthwhile. Maybe the US could pick off another cruiser, or perhaps one of the light carriers present, but that's about it.

Akagi taking a B-26 to the bridge certainly isn't going to improve things for the IJN, so figure pretty much as OTL.

Edit to add: for an account that looks at things more from the IJN side, I highly recommend Shattered Sword. http://www.amazon.com/Shattered-Swo...9249/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1309365728&sr=8-1

 

[kclcmdr]

If the Akagi is hit early on and all of her air assets among with the CIC command crew are eliminated...

The American 1st Strike team might be able to get a visual contact of the Nihon Kaigun as the Akagi is badly damaged by the ramming of the B-26 with the heavy smoke billowing out from the hit...

If everything is still help to the original OTL in where the American AirStrike comes in squadron strength instead of group strength...

This might still allow the American Airstrikes to concentrate upon the remaining three carriers and hopefully strike down all three instead of spreading all of their initial strikes to spread out among the original four IJN Carriers and now bear down on the three remaining Japanese Flattops as one of their numbers is now smoking heavily....
maybe...

 

[CT23]

I would guess Yorktown would survive Midway now?

 

[Bearcat]

Lots of ways this can go.

A bridge hit will kill those on the bridge but is not going to cause catastrophic damage, most likely, as a hangar deck explosion would. I doubt Akagi would sink, and likely her flight ops are only temporarily interrupted.

More interesting: with Nagumo dead, 1st Air Fleet command passes to Yamaguchi on Hiryu. Who was much more aggressive, and wanted to launch a strike, even with limited assets, as soon as the US carriers were spotted.

All sorts of possibilities there. Maybe the Japanese do better. Or maybe their first strike pilots ditch in the sea, their weapon loads do limited damage, and they still get hammered by McCluskey and company. If the (second carrier attack) torpedo strike on Yorktown is butterflied away, she most likely survives.

Lots of Devil in the details in this one.

 

[High Plains Drifter]

A loose Midway chronology IOTL:
7:10 - attacks by TBFs and B-26s from Midway
7:50 - attacks by SBDs from Midway
8:10 - attacks by B-17s from Midway
8:20 - Scout plane reports USN carrier to Nagumo
8:25 - attacks by SB2 Vindicators from Midway
8:45 - Kido Butai turns to the north-east to orient on USN carrier
9:00 - Admiral Yamaguchi of Carrier Division 2 (Hiryu/Soryu) recommends launch available planes to strike now. Nagumo chooses to wait to deploy a full strike.
9:20 - Torpedo bomber attack from Hornet squadron
9:40 - Torpedo bomber attack from Enterprise squadron
10:00 - Torpedo bomber attack from Yorktown squadron
10:20 - Dive bomber attack from Enterprise & Yorktown squadrons

So if the Akagi bridge is hit around 7:10, I suspect they lose steering. I assume they'd have steering restored (not perfect necessarily) by the 7:50 attack by the 16 SDBs from Midway. I expect the Akagi is not endangered more than IOTL. The IJN CAP is effective. No change there.

Next question, who is now Commanding the Kido Butai? Is it Admiral Yamaguchi? If not, I suspect that as the current senior carrier division commander, his opinion as to when to launch airstrikes becomes key anyway.

The Kido Butai turns north east approximately the same as IOTL, based on the report of a US carrier being identified.

Based on Yamaguchi's orders or advice to current acting KB commander, available planes are launched toward Task Force 16 around 9am. Perhaps only 18 D3A dive bombers, 9 B5B torpedo bombers, and 9 Zeros launch. This is a bigger force than first hit the Yorktown (TF 17) IOTL. Though here most of the bombers probably have ordnance meant to hit Midway and not ships.

So does this force find TF 16 or TF 17?

Will they get through the CAP?

Will their ordnance work if they hit a carrier?

If they find TF 16, will they take shots at both Hornet and Enterprise?

If they damage or sink a US carrier (or two?), how will that impact recovery of the returning US airplanes?

I assume (perhaps wrongly) that US planes still scratch 3 IJN flat tops.

What next?

 

[tchizek]

You know this could actually be in favor of the Japanese. One of the reasons the Americans did so well when they hit the Japanese carriers is that Admiral Nagumo changed his mind about targets so the Japanese were caught with half refueled AC and bombs out of the armories.

If (and I don't know this is the case) the next Admiral in line to take command doesn't make these mistakes it is possible that the American planes will not do as well. Hell even sending the next strike against Midway would get those piles of bombs and refueled AC off of the decks so it is more likely that they can handle the damage-control without loosing all of the carriers they did.

So I propose that it could very well turn out worse for the Americans with this POD.

 

[zoomar]

I agree with the above, and wonder if that might have been an underlying question of the PoD. Nagumo's incedision/poor decisions regarding the rearming the strike in question is pointed to by many as THE reason the US dive bomber strike was so disastrously effective. My guess is the Midway wouldn't go any worse for the Japanese (they lost Akagi anyway) and might actually do better.

 

[Know Nothing]

Wait, I thought Shattered Sword exploded the myth that Nagumo's poor decisionmaking doomed the Japanese. That due to the relentless piecemeal American attacks the Kido Butai never had enough time to re-arm for a strike on the carriers anyway, at least in time to prevent their own destruction.

 

[High Plains Drifter]

as the Akagi is badly damaged by the ramming of the B-26 with the heavy smoke billowing out from the hit...

The first US carriers planes to strike at the IJN carriers were the Hornet's torpedo bombers in VT8 at 9:20. This was the only squadron that made pretty much a straight line shot from their carrier to the Kido Butai.

Did the Enterprise or Yorktown's VT squadrons, which hit at 9:40 and 10:00, leave earlier than VT8? Did any of the dive bomber squadrons leave earlier. Important to note that the Hornet's VB squadron never saw the japanese fleet that morning.

If the Akagi started smoking from the 7:10 bridge hit, would they be able to stop the smoke before it gave their position away? What time would that need to be by? 8:30?

My guess is the Akagi would be able to contain the smoke in time. But if they couldn't, they very well might draw air strikes before the KB could launch their own Admiral Yamaguchi inspired/ordered earlier, limited strike which would need to take off between say 9:00 and 9:15.

 

[Matt Wiser]

RADM Hiroki Abe (ComCruDiv 8) on Chikuma was the next senior officer afloat. He would take charge of Kido Butai, but Yamaguchi would be running air operations.

 

[tchizek]

I think no matter what the Japanese have a better chance, I was reviewing the chronology of the battle and came across this detail...

0715 Nagumo, having just seen an attack on his group from Midway and not yet having any contact reports from his scout planes, decides to take the Kate torpedo bombers below deck to the hangars and have them rearmed with high-explosive bombs for a follow-up attack on Midway.

So if the Akagi is hit in the Bridge at 0710 there is no way anyone will be having the AC rearmed at 0715, then between 0720 and 0730 the scout plane from the Tone reports the position of the US carriers. Now, this may be a change that doesn't make any long term difference but if nothing else the other three carriers should be able to launch their spotted anti-shipping strikes. (Maybe, since we haven't changed the scout AC he is still the incompetent that failed to completely report what he had seen...) Hard to tell if the command confusion will help the Japanese or hurt them in this battle.

 

[Gridley]

Wait, I thought Shattered Sword exploded the myth that Nagumo's poor decisionmaking doomed the Japanese. That due to the relentless piecemeal American attacks the Kido Butai never had enough time to re-arm for a strike on the carriers anyway, at least in time to prevent their own destruction.

It did, but it will be a long time before that makes it into history books. Actually, the way 'history' books are trending, it may never make it in.