WI: Boldyrev becomes leader of the Russian Whites instead of Kolchak?

The coup which brought Kolchak to power in Siberia had many negative consequences for the White movement. Kolchak wasn't that bad in theory, but his naive and indecisive nature, his irrational dislike for politics, and his weakness in the face of pressure from reactionaries made for a deadly combination.

Now, the days of the Directorate were probably numbered anyway. By November 1918 even the British mission was mostly in favour of a coup. But what if Siberia's "democratic counter-revolution" was not overthrown by an outsider, but replaced from within its own ranks?

The supreme commander-in-chief of the White forces was one General Vasily Boldyrev - an uncommonly liberal and even socialist-leaning officer (a competent one, too). He was one of the few people in the movement who could have led a broad and progressive political front, while still commanding the respect of officers and conservatives as a military figure.

In OTL, Kolchak first refused to take power, insisting that the position belonged to Boldyrev as a member of the Directory and supreme commander of its forces. If Kolchak was not as easily swayed, or the coup took a different turn, Boldyrev could have easily found himself in charge. So what then?

In this scenario, the Siberians would have:
-Better relations with the SR party and other moderate socialists; less internal dissent.
-A more radical and believable program of land reform to attract the peasantry to the White cause - Kolchak's was well-intentioned, but confused even on a good day.
-More appealing social policies in general.
-Better relations with the minorities allied to the White movement - like the Bashkirs and Alash Kazakhs, who split from Kolchak within a month.
-Better relations with the Czechoslovak Legion.
-There's a chance (if only a small one) that Boldyrev would allow the White factions in the west to recognize Finland's independence - Kolchak didn't, and it cost them Mannerheim's help at a critical time.
-Far more competent military leadership than Kolchak's notoriously bad appointments, who fudged the Siberian war effort in general and the 1919 spring campaign in particular.

How would that affect the progress and outcome of the Russian Civil War? I can see a lot of small improvements. But would they add up to something big, or not?
 
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Could an independent Siberia be possible in the event of a red victory with better leadership?
 
Hmm. November 1918 IS maybe early enough for the Whites to win the civil war... Especially if they can forge an alliance with the Finns and Poles.

fasquardon
 
Hmm. November 1918 IS maybe early enough for the Whites to win the civil war... Especially if they can forge an alliance with the Finns and Poles.

fasquardon

Sadly, I have to retract my earlier optimism about Finnish assistance. I've just read a chain of older posts (starting with this one by David T) which convincingly argues that Finland probably wasn't going to intervene on behalf of the Whites - even if they recognized its independence. Still, even if the Finns won't fully commit, the recognition can be exchanged for more help; allowing the northwestern Whites to pose a bigger problem and distraction to the Bolsheviks.

The Poles may be a more likely ally, but Boldyrev would have to firmly take the reins of foreign policy from Denikin for that. Which shouldn't be hard, but it's another unpredictable factor. And the Polish intervention will still be limited. So I think the major changes will have to be in the East, and if the Bolsheviks do lose the war, it will have to be less of a grand curbstomp and more of a "death of a thousand papercuts" type of deal.

Still, the prospects are not bad. With Kolchak's dunce Chief of Staff out of the picture, the Siberians will probably not rush headlong and overextend themselves; but rather wait for Denikin to be ready and launch a coordinated attack with him. They will be better equipped and prepared, able to count on Bashkir and other Turkic troops, and better led on several levels (at least one competent commander - Kappel - was passed over by Kolchak because of his politics, at at least one - Gajda - turned into a bitter, disobedient glory hound). I can easily see the two White armies linking up in the South and establishing a common front in late Summer or Autumn 1919. And who knows how the situation might develop from there. Maybe even a drive towards Moscow? I guess it depends on the state of the Red armies - they're certainly not going to be in a good shape after scrambling and stretching to face two simultaneous major offensives.
 
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