WI/Challenge - Delayed Age of Discovery

[Nassirisimo]

It's been a long time since I posted something like this!

So the European Age of Discovery was one of the most impactful epochs in world history. The fragmented world systems which had previously existed were gradually brought together over the centuries by the European discoveries of new lands and sea routes across the world.

Now it's my understanding, going completely off the top of my head without consulting so much as the Wikipedia article that the seafaring capabilities of Western Europeans gradually developed over the centuries as those who lived by the rough Atlantic Ocean needed sturdy sea-craft to survive. In addition, you had the pull of potential new markets to encourage the Portuguese on their first voyages of exploration and for some reason, plenty of Italians such as Colombus and Cabot to head the expeditions that would mean opening the Americas to Europe and decimating the civilizations that already existed there.

So my question is, with a POD of 1000 AD (give or take a few years), how can we delay the European Age of discovery by a century or more? And what would be the results of this delay? Impressive as Zheng He's voyages were, would the Chinese ever be motivated to continue on this path? Would anyone else eventually take Europe's place to sail all the oceans of the world?

Or would it simply be a case that the rest of the world more or less chugs along as it had done previously, and we would simply see the broad patterns of OTL emerge once again, just delayed?

 

[kasumigenx]

It's been a long time since I posted something like this!

So the European Age of Discovery was one of the most impactful epochs in world history. The fragmented world systems which had previously existed were gradually brought together over the centuries by the European discoveries of new lands and sea routes across the world.

Now it's my understanding, going completely off the top of my head without consulting so much as the Wikipedia article that the seafaring capabilities of Western Europeans gradually developed over the centuries as those who lived by the rough Atlantic Ocean needed sturdy sea-craft to survive. In addition, you had the pull of potential new markets to encourage the Portuguese on their first voyages of exploration and for some reason, plenty of Italians such as Colombus and Cabot to head the expeditions that would mean opening the Americas to Europe and decimating the civilizations that already existed there.

So my question is, with a POD of 1000 AD (give or take a few years), how can we delay the European Age of discovery by a century or more? And what would be the results of this delay? Impressive as Zheng He's voyages were, would the Chinese ever be motivated to continue on this path? Would anyone else eventually take Europe's place to sail all the oceans of the world?

Or would it simply be a case that the rest of the world more or less chugs along as it had done previously, and we would simply see the broad patterns of OTL emerge once again, just delayed?

Perhaps have Constantinople remain under the Byzantines or have an independent Greece under the Romans.

 

[Aluma]

I'll try one
Have England win the Hundred Years War and their monarch sit on the french throne, unifying the countries
Having England(and perhaps later the whole UK) ruled from France would diverge their focus to mainland politics and away from colonization
Then lock this Super France in a war against the iberians
Something like the war of Spanish Succession would be good for that goal, but it'd be even better if England-France intervened in the Reconquista in order to "help", ensuring a balkanized in-fighting Iberia under it's sphere of influence
That takes away four of the possible triggers of the Age of Discovery - Portugal, Spain, England and the Dutch
And if this France is busy with something else(keeping the iberians down, trying to take over the HRE, trying to control Italy and the Papacy) it wont want to waste money in atlantic expeditions
Thus delaying the Age of Discovery indefinitely

 

[Harshavardhana]

Would anyone else eventually take Europe's place to sail all the oceans of the world?

Other than Zheng He you can also have the Cholas or the Vijaynagara trying to reach Europe. Like say they are dissatisfied that the Muslims are acting as the middle man between them and Europe and this results in them attempting to cross South Africa.

Along with @Aluma answer of Europe being embroiled in wars this can significantly change or delay the Age of exploration (because Indian and Chinese empires are not interested in North or South America). They may set up some colonies on the mouth of the rivers like the Mississippi or the Amazon but nothing else.

 

[Umbral]

In the main, you need to stop Columbus letters. Columbus lied his head off about how much gold and silver he had found and how placid and gentle the natives were. Those letters went viral. And then precious metals were actually found. That welded the association of faraway lands and riches into the European psyche.

Without Columbus you'll probably get a much more sedate expansion of Portugal up Brazil and North Europe through Newfoundland. Insted of "Gold and riches!" you get "Some resources, some hostile natives" If the early probes don't go well, it could be a long time before Europeans find the gold and silver.

I have sometimes speculated about a timeline where the Hansa, who build their power on cod, tapped into the Grand Banks and expansion into North America was by Hansa trading posts growing into factories and then Hansa cities. A more Phoenicians model of trade and colonization.

 

[Codae]

Perhaps have Constantinople remain under the Byzantines or have an independent Greece under the Romans.

Honestly, I don't see that changing much. The Ottoman capture of the Straits put a crucial link in the steppe route to China under Muslim control, but a) there were already Muslims ruling the rest of the central Asian corridor, and b) the route had been turning less practical over the centuries due to the fracturing of the Mongol empire. The Ottoman conquest of Syria and Egypt, securing a monopoly over trade eastward from the Mediterranean, would have been far more impactful had the Cape route not already been opened up.

As for delaying the Age of Exploration, my recommendation is simple: no Portugal. Through whatever means, keep there from being a state on the Atlantic coast of Europe that's strong enough to sponsor a program of sailing into the unknown as far as is necessary to reach India, and weak enough that those resources can't be used to try for dominance on the Continent.

Another trigger that could help would be if overland trade between Italy and the Netherlands could somehow be made more efficient, so that there's less incentive among the merchant marine to get good at sailing around the west coast. I don't think there's much scope to outcompete ocean trade (short of an astoundingly early development of coal-powered railroads), though.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

Perhaps have Constantinople remain under the Byzantines or have an independent Greece under the Romans.

The Portuguese had been sailing increasingly far along the coast of Africa from 1415, several decades before the fall of Constantinople.

 

[Blaze]

Having a stronger Al-Andalus to delay or stall the Reconquista. Or a late Aragonese-led unification of Iberia that results in a more Mediterranean focused policy.

For replacements. I don´t think there would be any. The chinese were not very interested due to economic reasons (what could the world give them that they do not have), same with the Indian kingdoms, plus more locked and known geographical area.
Maybe Morocco, if they develop a more trade focused economy and the iberian frontier is stabilized enough.

 

[Forth Eorlingas]

If Portugal and Spain develop along similar lines as OTL, an initially weaker looking Maghreb and a stronger crusading spirit could lead to those countries becoming bogged down in North Africa. If Iberia is devoted to continuing the Reconquista in Africa, they may not have resources for longer distance but eventually more lucrative exploration in the Americas and Asia.

 

[Gabingston]

I have sometimes speculated about a timeline where the Hansa, who build their power on cod, tapped into the Grand Banks and expansion into North America was by Hansa trading posts growing into factories and then Hansa cities. A more Phoenicians model of trade and colonization.

That sounds really interesting, I'd say you should go for it.

 

[Umbral]

That sounds really interesting, I'd say you should go for it.

I have recently gotten more responsibilities at work, so I don't have anywhere near the time for it sadly.

 

[Nassirisimo]

In the main, you need to stop Columbus letters. Columbus lied his head off about how much gold and silver he had found and how placid and gentle the natives were. Those letters went viral. And then precious metals were actually found. That welded the association of faraway lands and riches into the European psyche.

Without Columbus you'll probably get a much more sedate expansion of Portugal up Brazil and North Europe through Newfoundland. Insted of "Gold and riches!" you get "Some resources, some hostile natives" If the early probes don't go well, it could be a long time before Europeans find the gold and silver.

I have sometimes speculated about a timeline where the Hansa, who build their power on cod, tapped into the Grand Banks and expansion into North America was by Hansa trading posts growing into factories and then Hansa cities. A more Phoenicians model of trade and colonization.

I think this would be an interesting timeline in itself, perhaps one in which the native powers will have some time to adjust, but not develop an immunity to European diseases. Is it still not enough to prevent the formation of native polities?

But I think it would change relatively little about the exploration of Africa, if I'm not mistaken (which I probably am). Dias had already been around the Cape of Good Hope in 1488 and Da Gama would reach India a few years later. I think that this would eventually lead to someone having the idea "but what if the world was smaller and we went west!" eventually.

Honestly, I don't see that changing much. The Ottoman capture of the Straits put a crucial link in the steppe route to China under Muslim control, but a) there were already Muslims ruling the rest of the central Asian corridor, and b) the route had been turning less practical over the centuries due to the fracturing of the Mongol empire. The Ottoman conquest of Syria and Egypt, securing a monopoly over trade eastward from the Mediterranean, would have been far more impactful had the Cape route not already been opened up.

As for delaying the Age of Exploration, my recommendation is simple: no Portugal. Through whatever means, keep there from being a state on the Atlantic coast of Europe that's strong enough to sponsor a program of sailing into the unknown as far as is necessary to reach India, and weak enough that those resources can't be used to try for dominance on the Continent.

Another trigger that could help would be if overland trade between Italy and the Netherlands could somehow be made more efficient, so that there's less incentive among the merchant marine to get good at sailing around the west coast. I don't think there's much scope to outcompete ocean trade (short of an astoundingly early development of coal-powered railroads), though.

The idea of a no-Portugal is an intriguing one and it seems to get rid of the main push toward exploration of the African Coast. I do wonder if keeping Al-Andalus around in a more substantial form than Granada might do it. Would the last realistic POD be the Marinid Invasion of Iberia? Or suppose Portugal fell into the hands of Castile or another more centrally focused Iberian state at one time.

 

[Blaze]

One thing to consider regarding No-Portugal. If there is no Portugal, that leads to a stronger Kingdom of Léon that may butterfly their union with Castille as it was not popular at the time. If that happens it would be a case of Über-Portugal with Galicia and more spanish hinterland.

Of course, that may also lead to more conflicts between the two kingdoms to decide who is the top dog of the peninsula, which can also serve to delay the Discoveries and maybe the Reconquista.

 

[Umbral]

I think this would be an interesting timeline in itself, perhaps one in which the native powers will have some time to adjust, but not develop an immunity to European diseases. Is it still not enough to prevent the formation of native polities?

I think the diseases would race ahead of the Europeans, so they wouldn't get plagues and conquistadors immune to the plagues at the same time, like in OTL. Alsothe diseases would not hit simultaneously but a bit more spread out. Some polities would maybe survive and get some experience in dealing with disease. Others would rise to replace disease-hit polities. At a guess, the Incas would survive and the Aztects would not. No idea who would be in charge in the valley of Mexico then.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

I think the diseases would race ahead of the Europeans, so they wouldn't get plagues and conquistadors immune to the plagues at the same time, like in OTL. Alsothe diseases would not hit simultaneously but a bit more spread out. Some polities would maybe survive and get some experience in dealing with disease. Others would rise to replace disease-hit polities. At a guess, the Incas would survive and the Aztects would not. No idea who would be in charge in the valley of Mexico then.

Kinda depends, I think. IOTL the diseases didn't all hit at the same time -- there were at least three big epidemics in 16th-century Mexico, for example, the last one being sixty years after the initial conquest. So it's quite possible that the Aztecs or whoever would get decimated by a plague, then by another plague simultaneous with the arrival of conquistadors, leaving them in an even worse position to resist being conquered compared to OTL.