WI: Elizabeth I Became Queen of England in 1553

phil03

phil03

In the last months I have seen a lot of threat where Mary I either became queen earlier or survived longer (when I participate I tend to be among those who feel that it would take more for her policies to meet long term success then sometime assumed) but rarely do I see threads going the other way around. Therefore, I want to ask: what if Mary died before 1553 ITTL and Elizabeth became queen somewhat in advance?

Unlike Elizabeth Mary had longstanding health issues since she had been a teenager, her dying early would therefore definitely not been a stretch IMO.

On top of my head I can see the following butterflies:

I. Remove the Jane Grey-Mary I fight for succession, the Marian Persecutions and the exiles coming back and ods are you generally turn the temperature down in term of religious tensions.
II. In a similar note, not having gone through what she went through while Mary was queen would probably result in a lighter and softer Bess as queen compared to OTL, even tough her overall personality would probably be close to OTL.
III. With English Protestantism still far more firmly wielded to royal supremacy and without the Marian Exiles' experience with continental protestantism the pressure to push the reformation further might be significantly lessened compared to OTL, altough Cranmer and some others surviving would provide powerfull voices in that direction that Lizie didn't have to deal with in OTL.
IV. I don't think that not having England in the war will be enough for France to win the war against Spain in the late 1550s but it would probably be something of a curbstomp cushion.
V. I would expect english reaction to french implentation in Scotland to be far more immediate then it was in OTL and having a Protestant England next door might fastforward the Scottish Reformation a bit
VI. England might keep Calais for another little while.

Anyone else has toughts?
 

marktaha

Banned
Assume Jane Grey and several bishops live a
lot longer . Probably keep Calais and less trouble domestically.
 

Violet Rose Lily

Would Northumberland press for the Guildford/Jane match if not hope that Elizabeth would marry his son? As the father of the man she loved, I suspect Northumberland would continue to rise high. No Spanish match that is for certain even if Philip tries to court Elizabeth.

I love the idea of Cranmer crowing Elizabeth, his goddaughter. I find that very heartwarming.
 

Deleted member 147978

Would Elizabeth try to get support and try to challenge Lady Jane Grey for the throne of England and Ireland or not really?
 
pandizzy

pandizzy

if mary dies before edward, then there is no reason for him to change the succession in favor of jane grey since edward wanted to leave Elizabeth in and was convinced not to by northumbeland
 
HortenseMancini

HortenseMancini

I wouldn't be so sure that it doesn't come down to Elizabeth vs. Jane Grey...Edward loved his sisters, but AIUI he was fully convinced that they were illegitimate and that his father had been wrong to put them in the line of succession.
 

Cate13

I read somewhere (can remember so no idea how reliable) that Edward wanted to offer the crown to Elizabeth but she demurred knowing she wouldn’t survive trying to take the thrown ahead of Mary.
 
phil03

phil03

HortenseMancini said:
I wouldn't be so sure that it doesn't come down to Elizabeth vs. Jane Grey...Edward loved his sisters, but AIUI he was fully convinced that they were illegitimate and that his father had been wrong to put them in the line of succession.
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Cate13 said:
I read somewhere (can remember so no idea how reliable) that Edward wanted to offer the crown to Elizabeth but she demurred knowing she wouldn’t survive trying to take the thrown ahead of Mary.
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Would either of you happen to remember the sources?

I read the opposite myself: Edward's first instinct was to dinsinherit only Mary (due to her catholicism) and go straight to Elizabeth but he was convinced by his advisors that he couldn't really built a case against Mary without implicating Elizabeth too. Elizabeth herself was not in London, so she couldn't have consulted with Edward, and she was asked to come to pledge fealty to Jane but instead she slipped up and joined Mary in East Anglia (which did play a key role in Mary's triumph by powerfully reinforcing her argument that she was standing for the true succession to the throne and that, on her side at least, it wasn't primarely about religion).

In any case, I would argue that if Edward would try to dishinerit Elizabeth ITTL he simply wouldn't find meaningfull support among his advisors for it, as the religious motivation to push Jane Grey wouldn't be there, and it wouldn't go far beyond his deathbed.

Violet Rose Lily said:
Would Northumberland press for the Guildford/Jane match if not hope that Elizabeth would marry his son? As the father of the man she loved, I suspect Northumberland would continue to rise high. No Spanish match that is for certain even if Philip tries to court Elizabeth.

I love the idea of Cranmer crowing Elizabeth, his goddaughter. I find that very heartwarming.
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IMO how well Northumberland will do will depend how fast he understand that he is no longer in charge, altough even in the worst case scenario he would end up better then in OTL. Edward and Jane Grey might have been more politically active then they had been given credit for in the past but they were still kids. Elizabeth was twenty in 1553 and I'd expect her to go for the reins of power as soon as Edward is dead. Depending how fast Northumberland understand this he would either be sideline or keep being one of the court's key figure.

As for Dudley, it is worth noting that many historians suspect he and Elizabeth really became an item, on an emotional level if nothing else, while they were both locked in the Tower so the circumstances of their relationship would change. Considering how strong their bond was in OTL, tough, I would go on a limb and say they would end up becoming very close aniway.

As for Cranmer crowning Elizabeth, indeed! Even more then OTL this will be the great ''look at us now!'' of the old Bolein supporters, how long this would survive their theological difference is another question altoguether...

Another thing that will change now that I think about it is that, on a broader level, not having a temporary Catholic restoration in England will play in people's psyche... In OTL Mary winning over Jane was THE great triumph of Countereformation at this stage, the one time Catholicism made up lost ground while Protestantism mostly seemed in the offensive overall. The 16th century was a very ''things happen for a reason'' era, in term of how the world was seen, in Europe at least. Remove Mary's victory over Jane (as well as perhaps adding an earlier Scottish Reformation) and I could see how the decision making of some actors elsewhere would be subtly but significantly tilted toward Protestantism, with potential significant butterflies as a result.
 
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UCB79

I wonder- if Elizabeth had become Queen five years earlier, would she have launched some sort of pre-
emptive strike against Scotland, maybe even tried to conquer it? Just a thought....
 

Kerney

UCB79 said:
I wonder- if Elizabeth had become Queen five years earlier, would she have launched some sort of pre-
emptive strike against Scotland, maybe even tried to conquer it? Just a thought....
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No. She has a broke kingdom and if the Scots behave she'll behave.

Jane Grey will live a while longer because Northumberland won't have the pretext to stage a coup and the fact that everyone knows Liz is heir may butterfly the Jane/Guilford match, him being the protector who is about to be out of power and Suffolk being not that dumb not to see it.
 
phil03

phil03

UCB79 said:
I wonder- if Elizabeth had become Queen five years earlier, would she have launched some sort of pre-
emptive strike against Scotland, maybe even tried to conquer it? Just a thought....
Click to expand...
I would say her politics will probably to do what she can to boost local protestantism and try to counter french influence, like she did in OTL. If England does intervene it will only be in a situation similar to the expedition of OTL: with plenty of local allies waiting for them and only to tilt the balance toward them. Considering she did manage to get Scotland inside London's sphere of influence early in her reign in OTL, in worst circumstances then ITTL, she will probably manage it ITTL as well.
 

Fabius Maximus

Honestly, I don't think it would change very much -- England became Protestant IOTL, it'd become Protestant ITTL as well, albeit maybe a few years earlier. And I don't think the Elizabethan Settlement would be that different, either -- the evidence suggests that Elizabeth's religious beliefs were sincere, i.e., she wasn't just pushing things in a Protestant direction because she was being forced to.

Though one potential butterfly -- the idea of sending clergymen to study at seminaries seems to have originated with Cardinal Pole. After his death, Pole's secretary moved to Italy, where he gave the idea to St. Charles Borromeo, who introduced it to Milan, from where it spread to the rest of the Catholic, and from there to the rest of the Christian, world. So if Mary dies early and Reginald doesn't get ordained, clergymen might continue to be trained in the previous way, by apprenticeship.
 
piratedude

piratedude

Fabius Maximus said:
Honestly, I don't think it would change very much -- England became Protestant IOTL, it'd become Protestant ITTL as well, albeit maybe a few years earlier. And I don't think the Elizabethan Settlement would be that different, either -- the evidence suggests that Elizabeth's religious beliefs were sincere, i.e., she wasn't just pushing things in a Protestant direction because she was being forced to.

Though one potential butterfly -- the idea of sending clergymen to study at seminaries seems to have originated with Cardinal Pole. After his death, Pole's secretary moved to Italy, where he gave the idea to St. Charles Borromeo, who introduced it to Milan, from where it spread to the rest of the Catholic, and from there to the rest of the Christian, world. So if Mary dies early and Reginald doesn't get ordained, clergymen might continue to be trained in the previous way, by apprenticeship.
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I thought Cambridge and Oxford,among other universities, served that role already?
 

Fabius Maximus

piratedude said:
I thought Cambridge and Oxford,among other universities, served that role already?
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For some, although only a minority went there. Most candidates, especially in more rural or isolated areas, would be apprenticed to a priest, who'd then present him to the bishop when he thought he was ready. (That's part of the reason, incidentally, why complaints about ignorant priests with hardly any theology or Latin were so common: most of them hadn't actually been formally educated in these subjects.)
 
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