WI: Great Britain was not distracted by the Napoleonic Wars durig the War of 1812

[Lusitania]

What would have happened if immediately following the American Declaration of War against the Great Britain in 1812 the war in Europe finished with a French Defeat?

This could be due to the war being declared one year later or the war going much worse for the French and therefore they sue for peace.

How would the American and Great Britain actions differentiate? Would Britain try to conquer US or would they simply try to annex some lands. Would USA try to quickly try for a quick peace treaty on a status quo?

I know that the Canada Wank deals with the British winning and conquering the entire Mississippi but in this case the POD is much later right after the declaration of War not in the 18th century. Would Britain send over many of its soldiers overwhelming the Americans?

 

[bobbis14]

What would have happened if immediately following the American Declaration of War against the Great Britain in 1812 the war in Europe finished with a French Defeat?

This could be due to the war being declared one year later or the war going much worse for the French and therefore they sue for peace.

How would the American and Great Britain actions differentiate? Would Britain try to conquer US or would they simply try to annex some lands. Would USA try to quickly try for a quick peace treaty on a status quo?

I know that the Canada Wank deals with the British winning and conquering the entire Mississippi but in this case the POD is much later right after the declaration of War not in the 18th century. Would Britain send over many of its soldiers overwhelming the Americans?

Even with all their fresh resources the British would be unable to take and hold much of America other than coastline cities, I imagine the peace treaty could be more harsh on America.

 

[CalBear]

If there is no existing war, than the Americans have no reason to delcare war.

It was the pressures of the European war that caused the RN to go to impressment of sailors from U.S. vessels, to prevent American shipping from getting to Europe, and (from the American perspective) the potential of grabbing Canada while the British were distracted.

 

[CalBear]

If there is no existing war, than the Americans have no reason to delcare war.

It was the pressures of the European war that caused the RN to go to impressment of sailors from U.S. vessels, to prevent American shipping from getting to Europe, and (from the American perspective) the potential of grabbing Canada while the British were distracted.

 

[bobbis14]

If there is no existing war, than the Americans have no reason to delcare war.

It was the pressures of the European war that caused the RN to go to impressment of sailors from U.S. vessels, to prevent American shipping from getting to Europe, and (from the American perspective) the potential of grabbing Canada while the British were distracted.

No, I was going to mention that but in OP he said the U.S. declares war and then the French are easily defeated (in presumably days) freeing up British resources

 

[Lusitania]

Yes, while I do not belive they could conquer the USA could it of turned out worse and the British gotten some consesions from the USA i.e. Michigan, a Indian State in the Northwest or parts of main if they could of brought their armies over?

Or could the USA still gotten the war to end on the same basis?

 

[Nikephoros]

Yes, while I do not belive they could conquer the USA could it of turned out worse and the British gotten some consesions from the USA i.e. Michigan, a Indian State in the Northwest or parts of main if they could of brought their armies over?

Or could the USA still gotten the war to end on the same basis?

I think it is much more important to ask HOW the war against Nappy ends so quickly.

 

[Atreus]

No, I was going to mention that but in OP he said the U.S. declares war and then the French are easily defeated (in presumably days) freeing up British resources

Pray tell, how do the British go about unseating Napoleon circa 1812 in a matter of days? Remember, this is Napoleon arguably at the height of his power (or, at least, the pinnacle). Yes, the Peninsular War is going on (and bleeding the Empire terribly), but it is still winnable, in the sense that the Anglo-Portuguese-Spanish field army can be defeated in the field. Yes, he is about to invade Russia, but he need not do so, and Russia is winnable as well, albiet with some different strategic thinking by Napoleon and/or Alexander. As for the rest of europe, they are either allied to or cowed by (if not both) France.

 

[Lusitania]

I think it is much more important to ask HOW the war against Nappy ends so quickly.

Pray tell, how do the British go about unseating Napoleon circa 1812 in a matter of days? Remember, this is Napoleon arguably at the height of his power (or, at least, the pinnacle). Yes, the Peninsular War is going on (and bleeding the Empire terribly), but it is still winnable, in the sense that the Anglo-Portuguese-Spanish field army can be defeated in the field. Yes, he is about to invade Russia, but he need not do so, and Russia is winnable as well, albiet with some different strategic thinking by Napoleon and/or Alexander. As for the rest of europe, they are either allied to or cowed by (if not both) France.

My premisus is that the reason America declared war against Great Britain was that it was ticked off about the aprenhension of of its sailors from its ships and the restrictions on trade due to British blockade.

What if the Americans delayed their declaration by 1 year and let suppose the Russians left the Continental system and decided to trade with the British again also sooner.

Now we have the recipe for the potential that France suffers a catastrophic defeat similar to OTL and soon after the declaration of war seek terms and Napoleon is exiled.

What can/does the British do with thousands of available men no longer needed? Do they invade hoping to teach the upity republicans a lesson or do they offer terms?

 

[stevep]

Lusitania

Given the OP conditions, i.e. that the war goes as OTL up until ~1812 then a rapid French collapse the obvious answer for Britain is stomp. However it would depend on how angry they are compared to war-weary and how quickly the Americans decide to make peace.

The latter factor is probably the key one. While the British would like to protect their trading interests in the NW its not that significant unless the Americans make it so by prolonging the war. As such the most likely effect would be to end the war quickly with no real changes.

If the US perserved for some reason, then it could go very badly. Although still a secondary area for Britain as its main attention will be the situation in Europe, it can moblise massive forces including a lot of exterienced veterans. Unlikely to be any major changes on the east coast but could see a lot of impact inland in the territories. Doubt if you would see Louisiana lost in this war but the bulk of what happens in Dathi's TL is quite possible. [I say this war because there is likely to be a lot of tension and probably further conflicts over disputed borders and differing desires between the two nations and for most of the century this is likely to go badly for the Americans unless they get lucky.

Steve

 

[xchen08]

I think one thing that needs to be remembered is that the War of 1812 was the least popular war in U.S. history at the outset, and the declaration almost did not pass the Senate. The American Warhawks were pretty damn deluded, but a good number of even them knew full well the U.S. couldn't take on Britain alone. The U.S. simply will not declare war if the situation can be seen to be any better for Britain. You would need some sort of Deus Ex Machina to come in and suddenly eliminate Britain's enemies.

 

[Atreus]

My premisus is that the reason America declared war against Great Britain was that it was ticked off about the aprenhension of of its sailors from its ships and the restrictions on trade due to British blockade.

Not the only reason, but a cause.

What if the Americans delayed their declaration by 1 year and let suppose the Russians left the Continental system and decided to trade with the British again also sooner.

So, Nappy goes east in 1810, 1811 maybe (though the first is probably too soon after Wagram), and America declares war circa 1813 or so? And, for this scenario, you are assuming that european history procedes mostly as per otl, simply accelerated (so Napoleon still goes into russia, following the same plan, etc...)

Now we have the recipe for the potential that France suffers a catastrophic defeat similar to OTL and soon after the declaration of war seek terms and Napoleon is exiled.

Eh, this is where things start to fall apart. You cannot shift around a timeline of events and assume that things stay the same. Maybe Napoleon marches on St. Petersburg. maybe he is more careful with his lines of supply. maybe Alexander decides to meet him in the field, and is crushed. Maybe Napoleon dies at a Borodino-analogue. Maybe he focuses on Spain, to eliminate the ulcer once and for all. Maybe the man reigns in his ego, and doesnt invade russia at all. Maybe the Austrians and/or Prussians cannot or will not defect, or do so too early, and are crushed. Maybe events go as per OTL, but Napoleon either makes peace with the coalition, or defeats them in germany.

The point is, things are not bound to happen as they did IOTL just because the dates are changed. Tinkering with Napoleon's decisions, and those of the people involved with him, will have major repercussions.

Finally, if, for the sake of argument, ITTL France is reduced by, i dont know, 1813 (invades Russia in 1811, German campaign in 1812, 1813 sees circumstances similar to 1814 for Nappy). Given this, france either makes peace with old borders, or is invaded by the coalition against it. So Why does the United States decide that now is the perfect time to chime in against the Brits? It's just... idiocy.

What can/does the British do with thousands of available men no longer needed? Do they invade hoping to teach the upity republicans a lesson or do they offer terms?

Britain with its full strength arrayed against the fledgling United States wins in a walkover, although subjugating the Americans is another matter. But Britain wanting to do so, being able to do so, or needing to do so, isn't quite the same thing.

 

[bobbis14]

Pray tell, how do the British go about unseating Napoleon circa 1812 in a matter of days? Remember, this is Napoleon arguably at the height of his power (or, at least, the pinnacle). Yes, the Peninsular War is going on (and bleeding the Empire terribly), but it is still winnable, in the sense that the Anglo-Portuguese-Spanish field army can be defeated in the field. Yes, he is about to invade Russia, but he need not do so, and Russia is winnable as well, albiet with some different strategic thinking by Napoleon and/or Alexander. As for the rest of europe, they are either allied to or cowed by (if not both) France.

The task is not to defeat Napoleon, but is to ponder on the outcome on the events in America.

 

[Atreus]

The task is not to defeat Napoleon, but is to ponder on the outcome on the events in America.

Yes. But the scenario calls for Napoleon being defeated basically as soon as the United States declares war. Which raises the minor question of how the british defeat the French so easily, and thus a host of other questions (what, if anything, has changed in the british army, either tactically, organizationally, or strategically; what becomes of the european balance of power; would the Americans even declare war under such circumstances) which really do need to be adressed.

 

[Lusitania]

Yes. But the scenario calls for Napoleon being defeated basically as soon as the United States declares war. Which raises the minor question of how the british defeat the French so easily, and thus a host of other questions (what, if anything, has changed in the british army, either tactically, organizationally, or strategically; what becomes of the european balance of power; would the Americans even declare war under such circumstances) which really do need to be adressed.

The question here is that by the time USA declares war on GB napoleon is on his last legs, suffers a huge defeat or contracts namonia from his Russia campian and dies. However the circumstances the war in Europe finnishes in June 1813 two months after the USA has declared war on British.

What do the British do in America, do they take some choice American cuts for themselfs arm and supply the natives so that they are more formidable?

 

[Sealion]

OK, here's how to butterfly the european war away:

In OTL, Napolion had a narrow escape in 1812 - on October 25th, during the retreat from Moscow Napolion was conducting a personal reconnasance of the Lusha river, when his party was attacked by Cossacks (one of whom managed to get within 20 yards of the Emperor). Lets say that a lucky shot (or unlucky one, depending on your point of view) kills him.

Without Napoleon in the picture, a negotiated settlement in Europe becomes a possibility. It'll take time for the dipplomats to nail down all the details, but it's not out of the question that there would be a ceasefire in place by Christmas, and that the French would have started to withdraw from Spain (they know they'll never keep it, it's a running sore that bleeds manpower, and they feel they can better use the forces there to rebuild the army that retreated out of Russia).

This frees up the British to redeploy Wellington's army to the Canadian front.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

OK, here's how to butterfly the european war away:

In OTL, Napolion had a narrow escape in 1812 - on October 25th, during the retreat from Moscow Napolion was conducting a personal reconnasance of the Lusha river, when his party was attacked by Cossacks (one of whom managed to get within 20 yards of the Emperor). Lets say that a lucky shot (or unlucky one, depending on your point of view) kills him.

Without Napoleon in the picture, a negotiated settlement in Europe becomes a possibility. It'll take time for the dipplomats to nail down all the details, but it's not out of the question that there would be a ceasefire in place by Christmas, and that the French would have started to withdraw from Spain (they know they'll never keep it, it's a running sore that bleeds manpower, and they feel they can better use the forces there to rebuild the army that retreated out of Russia).

This frees up the British to redeploy Wellington's army to the Canadian front.

Argueably the French do have a strong bargaining position if they are willing to make the necessary concessions for peace...

Joseph would be Regent for the new Emporer of the French...Napoleon II... of course if the TL is advanced, did Napoleon and Marie Louise even get their marriage arranged, perhaps he has not even been conceived or is a girl instead...in which case Joseph is Emporer ( and he of course only has two daughters...which puts Louis in line for the throne eventually...not something likely to be seen favourably for sure, he will have to renounce his rights to one of them in favour of someone else...either the Stadtholder in the Netherlands...preferred I think by the coalition or Jerome in France, mind you Lucien might end up rehabilitated as well to the succession....that would take an amendment to the succession laws as he and his line are barred). Since Joseph is leaving Spain its nice to know he has a job lined up...it might even hasten the withdrawal from Spain knowing he gains the Crown or or an influential role in Paris. Hmm going to have to review that timing to see.

As to the war in NAm... the Brits could make things worse for the Americans in the West and the Champlain Valley...and the Seaboard seaports might be in endangered...but the gaol will always be to deny the Americans their objectives and strengthen their own defensive position..Strengthening the native position in the west and their own position in the St. Lawrence valley are going to be the priority along with weakening the American economy through blockade. Eastern Maine might well be invaded earlier if the troops are available for the defensive perimeter around the maritimes and access to the Bay of Fundy.

Much though hinges on European events...

Since Borodino is the suggested departure...the Grande Armee has not marched to Moscow and had to winter their. Obviously they halt. negotiations , or orderly retreat to the originally envisioned operation and then negotiations... Britain will still be more preoccupied with events there until settled, though the troops will be available if they want. How badly is Joseph likely to want to end the madness in Europe. Metternich can use a new relationship with a more conciliatory France to drive the Prussians out of the Austrian misery, but at the price of their envisioned hegemony in North Italy and at the price of continued French influence in parts of what will probably be a very different German Bund. The HRE is dead, that horse is not coming back ever.

Do you have the headlong and fatal rush of the GA in retreat. Is their any Leipzig analogue ( probably not...but if you assume orderly retreat perhaps something similiar to Leipzig in Poland instead with a more substantial French and say Austrian victory. If Nappy II is alive, the Austrians may not jump ship. Heaven help the Prussians then if they are the only ones to join the Russians in pursuing the French following a more orderly withdrawal from Russia ( they may not survive an Alt CoV). Franco-Austrian Axis circa 1812.

 

[Lusitania]

alright this thread is going off in the direction of discussing the European theater, which is not what I was asking.

I wanted to discuss the implications of British not being occupied in Europe and USA now involved in a war with the biggest Empire.

What will the British do will they send their most experienced soldiers and General over or will the USA quickly realize their error in declaring war and beg for peace? What will be the cost of peace?

Is British tired of war and just want peace or do they stick to the upstart republic?

 

[xchen08]

alright this thread is going off in the direction of discussing the European theater, which is not what I was asking.

I wanted to discuss the implications of British not being occupied in Europe and USA now involved in a war with the biggest Empire.

What will the British do will they send their most experienced soldiers and General over or will the USA quickly realize their error in declaring war and beg for peace? What will be the cost of peace?

Is British tired of war and just want peace or do they stick to the upstart republic?

The U.S. would most likely never have declared war in any circumstance in which it is reasonable likely that Britain could get clear of an European war. If it does, unless the initial phases of the war see massive and decisive U.S. victories (which of course would be overturned once Britain brings its full might to bear, but would overly encourage the Warhawks), even the Warhawks would attempt to seek peace immediately. Britain would most likely accept any peace that does not make it seem as if the U.S. won. The war was impressively unpopular in Britain as well.

The only way to get a serious war going where Britain brings its full might to bear and smashes the U.S., would be if as I mentioned above, the U.S. gains all the early successes that the Warhawks promised. The militia turns out competent, or gets a Great Man leader, and Britain is swept out of most of Canada. The Warhawks would seem vindicated, and would keep on fighting past reasonableness as the tide turns against the U.S., and Britain would feel the need to avenge its losses.

 

[AmIndHistoryAuthor]

It seems like some are forgetting the time lag in getting news at that time. The same lag of almost two months that resulted in the Battle of New Orleans being fought after the war had already ended could also result in miscalculating US war hawks declaring war before they realize they'll be facing Britain alone.

I'd say at the very least the US loses all territories west of the original thirteen states. There was a pretty good thread about Tecumseh's confederacy surviving the war that'd apply. I agree reconquest of the entire US is unlikely.