WI: Henry VIII and Katherine of Aragon switch death dates?

[RedKing]

As the title says, Henry VIII and Katherine of Aragon switch dates, i.e. Henry VIII dies on January 7th 1536 while Katherine lives on until January 28th 1547. For Henry VIII this is quite simple. In January 1536 of otl he had a jousting accident that left him unconscious and many feared he would die. Although that was a result of Katherine of Aragon's death, in alt I don't think it's impossible that Henry goes jousting anyways and ends up having less luck than otl and dying. For Katherine, this requires butterflying whatever illness killed her in otl.

So, with Henry dead and Katherine kicking, what happens? Obviously Katherine, Mary and their supporters will make a move for the throne and the Boleyn's will do their best to resist, especially considering Anne Boleyn's pregnant. Speaking of which, in otl it's been speculating that stress was the reason she miscarried. Since she'd be faced with a similar amount, if not more stress than otl would she still miscarry? If she does I'd imagine it'd be exploited by her enemies as a symptom of a 'Boleyn Curse'. Ultimately would Mary and Katherine triumph or would the Boleyns win? Do the Howards, the most powerful nobles at this time attempt to play Kingmaker? How does Charles V react? Would he send support to his English cousin and ex-fiancé (in hopes she marries a Habsburg proxy?)

 

[Stahlo]

Charles will send his aunt and cousin his support...after the fact. He's not going to commit any resources to help them take the throne. Katherine and Mary's chief advantage in this scenario will be their popularity among the commons and just how disliked Anne was. If Anne still miscarries, I could see people like Brandon, Norfolk, and Cromwell abandoning her very quick. If she doesn't though, then it gets a bit dicey, as there would be many people who'd prefer a male heir, even if Anne was the mother.

 

[Tudorfan]

TBH, Mary's best option - if she desires not just to take but keep the throne - is to say "I will not rule. I will marry an Englishman who will."

Then she'll get support as it's not a woman ruler - sort of a William III/Mary II thing...

 

[ordinarylittleme]

especially considering Anne Boleyn's pregnant

They will wait until Anne gives birth, surely?

 

[RedKing]

Charles will send his aunt and cousin his support...after the fact. He's not going to commit any resources to help them take the throne. Katherine and Mary's chief advantage in this scenario will be their popularity among the commons and just how disliked Anne was.

This is true, especially since as far as Charles knows any action will just lead to a long and costly military campaign in England. The commons would likely rally behind Mary and Katherine and if they can escape from the Boleyn’s clutches they can mount a serious challenge.

If Anne still miscarries, I could see people like Brandon, Norfolk, and Cromwell abandoning her very quick. If she doesn't though, then it gets a bit dicey, as there would be many people who'd prefer a male heir, even if Anne was the mother.

That’s quite likely, propping up a 20 year old women is a far easier feat than trying to crown a 3 year old girl, especially when said 20 year old women has a lot of support among the people. Though, if Anne has a son things get a lot more complicated. The bulk of the nobility would be behind her and so Mary’s cause could wind up dead in the water.

TBH, Mary's best option - if she desires not just to take but keep the throne - is to say "I will not rule. I will marry an Englishman who will."

Then she'll get support as it's not a woman ruler - sort of a William III/Mary II thing...

That could work to get more support. Who’d she promise to marry? A Courtenay, Howard or Brandon?

They will wait until Anne gives birth, surely?

In normal circumstances they would, but the problem here is that Mary, Katherine and their supporters (including a large part of the general population) are going to consider any potential son as illegitimate due to their belief that Anne’s marriage to Henry was bigamous. Hence, moves against her would begin immediately, especially given Anne’s unpopularity.

 

[ordinarylittleme]

A Courtenay, Howard or Brandon?

NOT a Howard, there is no Courtenay or Brandon her age though.

 

[RedKing]

NOT a Howard, there is no Courtenay or Brandon her age though.

Why not? The Howard’s were opportunists afaik, if it looks like Mary is going to triumph/has triumphed they’ll put one of their own on offer. Edward Courtenay is a possible age in spite of his age (it’d give Mary the chance to cement her own independent rule). True about the Brandon’s though. A Somerset (relative of the Earl of Worcester) is possible too and would be a fun way to get a ‘Plantagenet’ restoration.

 

[kasumigenx]

Why not? The Howard’s were opportunists afaik, if it looks like Mary is going to triumph/has triumphed they’ll put one of their own on offer. Edward Courtenay is a possible age in spite of his age (it’d give Mary the chance to cement her own independent rule). True about the Brandon’s though. A Somerset (relative of the Earl of Worcester) is possible too and would be a fun way to get a ‘Plantagenet’ restoration.

Didn't the second Henry Brandon die in the late 1530s.

 

[RedKing]

Didn't the second Henry Brandon die in the late 1530s.

No, apparently the first died in 1534 and second was born in 1535. Neither are options at this time.

 

[ordinarylittleme]

Why not? The Howard’s were opportunists afaik, if it looks like Mary is going to triumph/has triumphed they’ll put one of their own on offer.

But she won't take that offer (I doubt they have anyone suitable anyway - are you thinking of Henry Howard?)

 

[RedKing]

But she won't take that offer (I doubt they have anyone suitable anyway - are you thinking of Henry Howard?)

There’s the Duke’s son Thomas who appears to be unmarried at the time and his nephews Georges and Charles.

 

[Victoria]

TBH, Mary's best option - if she desires not just to take but keep the throne - is to say "I will not rule. I will marry an Englishman who will."

Then she'll get support as it's not a woman ruler - sort of a William III/Mary II thing...

She won't have to. If Anne gives birth to a son (which is unlikely), he'll almost certainly get the throne no matter what Mary promises. If the only candidates are her and Elizabeth, then there are both women so there's no need for that.
The only other possible male heir to the throne is James V of Scotland but I'm not sure how much English support he could get.

 

[Ivan Lupo]

James V of Scotland would be an option. Matter of fact, he would probably be the first to offer a marriage proposal.

 

[Stahlo]

She won't have to. If Anne gives birth to a son (which is unlikely), he'll almost certainly get the throne no matter what Mary promises. If the only candidates are her and Elizabeth, then there are both women so there's no need for that.
The only other possible male heir to the throne is James V of Scotland but I'm not sure how much English support he could get.

This, and the biggest reason Katherine and Mary held out for so long against Henry was their belief that Katherine was his lawful wife and Mary was his lawful heiress. They aren't going to immediately undercut Mary's position by essentially bargaining away her right to rule independently. I could see some of the Nobles insisting on an English match as soon as Mary assumed the throne, though whether she or Katherine would go for it is another story.

 

[RedKing]

She won't have to. If Anne gives birth to a son (which is unlikely), he'll almost certainly get the throne no matter what Mary promises. If the only candidates are her and Elizabeth, then there are both women so there's no need for that.
The only other possible male heir to the throne is James V of Scotland but I'm not sure how much English support he could get.

This is true, if the two main contenders for the throne are Mary and Elizabeth then Mary has the advantage due to her seniority and having the chance to provide England with a male heir.

James V’s position is probably weak considering he’s a foreign monarch and is betrothed to a French princess, which would make him unpopular with the English nobility.

James V of Scotland would be an option. Matter of fact, he would probably be the first to offer a marriage proposal.

He is betrothed to a French princess at the moment though there’s nothing stopping him from breaking it if it potentially means getting the throne of England. As to whether Mary accepts is anyone’s guess.

This, and the biggest reason Katherine and Mary held out for so long against Henry was their belief that Katherine was his lawful wife and Mary was his lawful heiress. They aren't going to immediately undercut Mary's position by essentially bargaining away her right to rule independently. I could see some of the Nobles insisting on an English match as soon as Mary assumed the throne, though whether she or Katherine would go for it is another story.

This is true, the English nobility are going to want one of their own to be King while Katherine is probably going to want one of her relatives (an Aviz or Habsburg) on the throne. Could lead to some interesting conflicts between the nobility and Mary later on down the line (and possibly plots invoking Elizabeth?)

 

[Stahlo]

This is true, the English nobility are going to want one of their own to be King while Katherine is probably going to want one of her relatives (an Aviz or Habsburg) on the throne. Could lead to some interesting conflicts between the nobility and Mary later on down the line (and possibly plots invoking Elizabeth?)

Luis or Duarte Aviz I think would be the best compromise marriage candidates. I don't think there was a male Hapsburg of a suitable age to marry Mary at this point, so they're the best bet if Katherine wants a relative, and England had longstanding diplomatic ties with Portugal. Neither of them is the firstborn son either, so that avoids a personal union, which would settle down the nobles.

 

[RedKing]

Luis or Duarte Aviz I think would be the best compromise marriage candidates. I don't think there was a male Hapsburg of a suitable age to marry Mary at this point, so they're the best bet if Katherine wants a relative, and England had longstanding diplomatic ties with Portugal. Neither of them is the firstborn son either, so that avoids a personal union, which would settle down the nobles.

I like the idea of Luis being Mary’s suitor. It was floated around in otl and is commonly suggested on the forum but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a scenario where it’s happened. It could also lead to an Anglo-Portuguese union if the rest of the Aviz go the way of otl, which while only likely to last a generation at most would be interesting to see.